2004 Legislative Council Election Feature PageBack

Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election (conducted on 12/9/2004; released on 12/9/2004; on-line from 21/9/2004)
The exit poll data of the Legislative Council Election is provided for free by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong, which serves as part of POP's community services. Please acknowledge the source when re-printing or citing these figures.

Pre-Survey on 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election (conducted on 10/9/2004; released on 12/9/2004; on-line from 23/9/2004)
"Pre-Survey on 2004 Legislative Council Direct Election" was commissioned by Sunday Morning Post and the results were already publicized in the Post on the election day. All findings are now released in the POP Site for public consumption, as part of POP's service to the community. Specification should be made in any subsequent publication of whole or part of the data.

2004 Legislative Council Election : Rolling survey
Figures on the Legislative Council election rolling survey are provided freely by POP and the Civic Exchange as one of the community services. Specification should be made in any subsequent publication of whole or part of the data.

Full questionnaires
(pdf format only)

Full questionnaires
(pdf format only)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election : 3rd Survey【All constituencies in Hong Kong】(conducted on 26-29/7/2004; released on 9/8/2004; on-line from 9/8/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency【Kowloon East】(conducted on 9-11/7/2004; released on 21/7/2004; on-line from 21/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency【New Territories West】(conducted on 9-11/7/2004; released on 21/7/2004; on-line from 21/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency【Kowloon West】(conducted on 24-27/6/2004; released on 21/7/2004; on-line from 21/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency【New Territories East】(conducted on 24-27/6/2004; released on 21/7/2004; on-line from 21/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election : 2nd Survey【All constituencies in Hong Kong】(conducted on 21-24/6/2004; released on 8/7/2004; on-line from 8/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election: Survey on Individual Constituency【Hong Kong Island】(conducted on 24/5/2004; released on 8/7/2004; on-line from 8/7/2004)

2004 Legislative Council Direct Election : 1st Survey【All constituencies in Hong Kong】(conducted on 18-20/5/2004; released on 31/5/2004; on-line from 31/5/2004)

Articles

"An Open Road for Public Opinion after the Election" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (10/2004)
The article mainly highlighted the important findings obtained from the surveys conducted by the author during the Legislative Council Election period, including the defeat of the democratic camp on Hong Kong Island, the success of the DAB's electoral strategy, and the victories of James Tien, "Long Hair" Leung Kwok-hung and Albert Cheng, etc. The author also briefly discussed the consensus reached among voters, as well as some problems arising from this election. The Chinese version of the article was published by the MingPao Monthly in October 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No. 7, end of series - Exit Poll: Professional Ethics are Indispensable" (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (6/10/2004)
As the last article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series", apart from analyzing the human resources distribution of various organizations which have conducted exit polls, the importance of keeping the exit poll results confidential before the close of election was also emphasized. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 6 October 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.6 - New Territories West Exit Poll Results" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung and Calvin Mo-Chun Lam (Members of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (5/10/2004)
As the sixth article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series", it mainly discussed the party strength of various participating political parties, background of voters in support of different candidates, as well as the flow of votes among various lists in New Territories West. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 5 October 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.5 - New Territories East Exit Poll Results" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung and Cliff Kwong-Pok Chow (Members of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (4/10/2004)
This is the fifth article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series". The article mainly analyzed the voting results of New Territories East, including the reasons for the safe election of "Long Hair" Leung Kwok Hung, the failure of the "7.1 United Front", and the departure of senior legislator Andrew Wong. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 4 October 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.4 - Kowloon West Exit Poll Results" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung and Tony Pui-Shing Tsoi (Members of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (2/10/2004)
Subsequent to the first 3 articles of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series", this article mainly discussed the flow of votes among various lists in Kowloon West, as well as analyzing the characteristics and background of voters in support of different candidates. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 2 October 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.3 - Kowloon East Exit Poll Results" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung and Karie Ka-Lai Pang (Members of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (30/9/2004)
This is the third article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series". The article mainly analyzed the flow of votes both among and within the two political camps in Kowloon East. It also discussed the characteristics of voters in support of different candidates, and the split vote strategies of the two camps. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 30 September 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.2 - Hong Kong Island Exit Poll Results" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung and Carmen Ka-man Chan (Members of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (28/9/2004)
This is the second article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series". The article mainly examined tactical voting among voters on Hong Kong Island. It also analyzed the characteristics of voters in support of different political camps, and how such support has changed in the past four years. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 28 September 2004.

"Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series No.1 - Exit Polls: Finding A New Consensus" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (27/9/2004)
This is the first article of the "Legislative Council Election Exit Poll Analysis Article Series". Based on the exit polls conducted by the author on the Legislative Council election day, it analyzed the features and demands of voters from the democratic camp, the pro-China camp and the Liberal Party, so as to find a way to reach a consensus. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 27 September 2004.

"The Basics of Rolling Polls" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (11/9/2004)
The article mainly addressed some common misunderstandings surrounding rolling polls, by introducing some basic statistical knowledge of social surveys, as well as some fundamental concepts of rolling surveys. The Chinese version of the article was published concurrently by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 11 September 2004.

"Make Good Use of Public Opinion Survey; Develop Professional Media Ethics" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (16/8/2004)
The article mainly discussed how several popular public opinion surveys work, including snap polls, tracking polls, rolling polls and exit polls. It also suggested the development of a set of professional code of ethics in Hong Kong when the media reports the public opinion surveys. The slightly shortened Chinese version of the article was published by the Media Digest and Hong Kong Economic Journal (abridged version) on 16 August 2004.

"Nomination Survey in the Legislative Council Election" Robert Ting-Yiu Chung (Director of Public Opinion Programme, the University of Hong Kong) (9/8/2004)
The article mainly described the author's opinion survey work and method adopted prior to the election nomination period, with real figures and examples. Implications and limitations of the survey method were also discussed. The Chinese version of the article was published by the Hong Kong Economic Journal on 7 August 2004.

Press Releases

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the last Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(11/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 32nd Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(10/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 31st Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(9/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 30th and 2nd summary of Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(8/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 29th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(7/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 28th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(6/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 27th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(5/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 26th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(4/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 25th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(3/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 24th Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(2/9/2004)

HKU POP SITE and Civic Exchange releases the 23rd Legislative Council election rolling survey result (pdf format only)(1/9/2004)

Rolling Survey result in August

Students' projects

HKU Student Research Team: Project LC04
The materials herewith were supplied by the Hong Kong University Student Research Team fully supported by POP, but they do not represent the view of POP. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung was the initiator and now an Honorary Advisor of the Team in his personal capacity, together with some of his colleagues at the University of Hong Kong.

Reference materials

Relevant workshops and seminars

Workshop on "How to Use and Report Exit Polls" (4/09/2004)

Workshop on "How to Use and Report Rolling Polls" (14/08/2004)

LegCo Election and Opinion Polling (26/07/2004)

Media coverage