HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and principal officialsBack

Press Release on May 14, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | Detailed Findings (Popularity of Principal Officials) |

Special Announcements

1. The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) has operated officially since May 4, 2019, after appointing its first part-time staff. HKPORI will carry on the spirit of May Fourth Movement and the mission of the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) to serve the society with integrity and quality, as a civil society conscientious enterprise. The Institute is now recruiting advisors and volunteers, we welcome people with passion to join us.

2. Under HKPORI will be a research program called Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) which will continue to conduct public opinion surveys, but will require public funding before releasing them. This means that self-funding tracking surveys so far conducted and released by HKUPOP, covering about 25 broad topics and almost 250 opinion questions, like those on the popularity of the Chief Executive, the government, the principal officials, the best commercial organizations, people’s views on June Fourth, ethnic identity, and so on may not be seen again after July this year. For public releases on the establishment of HKPOP, please refer to our website: https://hkupop.pori.hk/english/release/release1583_pr.html. Please follow us through the following social media accounts for our latest update:

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Abstract

HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,018 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early May. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 44.3 marks, significantly decreased by 4.7 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 56%, net approval rate also significantly dropped by 12 percentage points to negative 24. Both her rating and net approval rate are at her record low since she took office. As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 43.5 marks, approval rate 23%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of negative 6 percentage points. Both his rating and net approval rate are also at his record low since he took office. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.2 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 51%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 29.5 marks, registering a significant decrease of 4.7 marks compared to a month ago, registering a new record low since she took office. Her approval rate is 11%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points, registering a significant decrease of 11 percentage points compared to a month ago. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department. As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down, but only that of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong has changed significantly, which dropped by 13 percentage points to positive 4. The net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung are at their record low since they took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularities, at negative 5, negative 7, negative 16, negative 18 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 35 percentage points. According to HKUPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, John Lee, Frank Chan, Matthew Cheung, Lau Kong-wah, Nicholas Yang and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Joshua Law, Michael Wong, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”. The effective response rate of the survey is 63.2%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-6% and that of ratings is +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	6-9/5/2019
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above
Sample size^[1]	:	1,018 (including 671 landline and 347 mobile samples)
Effective response rate^[2]	:	63.2%
Sampling error^[3]	:	Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-6% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level
Weighting method^[4]	:	Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.

Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, HKUPOP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	18-21/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	14-19/3/19	8-11/4/19	23-25/4/19	*6-9/5/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size	1,001	1,024	1,024	1,012	1,031	*1,018*	--
Response rate	72.1%	72.2%	73.1%	63.9%	66.1%	*63.2%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CE Carrie Lam	50.0^[5]	50.9	52.6	48.5^[5]	49.0	*44.3+/-1.8*	*-4.7^[5]*
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam	38%	35%	39%	34%^[5]	36%	*32+/-3%*	*-4%^[5]*
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam	45%	51%^[5]	45%^[5]	51%^[5]	49%	*56+/-3%*	*+7%^[5]*
Net approval rate	-7%	-16%^[5]	-7%^[5]	-17%^[5]	-13%	*-24+/-6%*	*-12%^[5]*

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Recent popularity figures of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	7-11/1/19	29/1-8/2/19	27/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	8-11/4/19	*6-9/5/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size^[6]	538-576	511-542	621	591-680	634-673	*592-642*	--
Response rate	55.6%	63.0%	78.2%	72.2%	63.9%	*63.2%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Rating of CS Matthew Cheung	47.4	46.4	--	47.7	45.9	*43.5+/-2.2*	*-2.4*
Vote of confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	26%	27%	--	26%	25%	*23+/-3%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in CS Matthew Cheung	24%	24%	--	28%	27%	*29+/-4%*	*+2%*
Net approval rate	2%	2%	--	-1%	-2%	*-6+/-6%*	*-4%*
Rating of FS Paul Chan	40.2	37.6	40.5	39.7	38.2	*34.2+/-2.1*	*-4.1^[7]*
Vote of confidence in FS Paul Chan	22%	22%	19%	21%	18%	*16+/-3%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in FS Paul Chan	47%	48%	49%	52%	53%	*51+/-4%*	*-2%*
Net approval rate	-25%	-26%	-31%	-30%	-35%	*-35+/-6%*	--
Rating of SJ Teresa Cheng	30.4^[7]	31.3	--	34.4	34.2	*29.5+/-2.2*	*-4.7^[7]*
Vote of confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	11%	13%	--	14%	17%	*11+/-3%*	*-5%^[7]*
Vote of no confidence in SJ Teresa Cheng	59%^[7]	51%^[7]	--	53%	46%^[7]	*52+/-4%*	*+6%^[7]*
Net approval rate	-48%^[7]	-38%^[7]	--	-40%	-30%^[7]	*-41+/-6%*	*-11%^[7]*

[6] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies. The survey conducted on 27/2/2019 was the Budget instant survey and only asked rating of FS as well as his vote of confidence.

[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below, in descending order of net approval rates ^[8]:

Date of survey	29/1-8/2/19	28/2-5/3/19	8-11/4/19	*6-9/5/19*	*Latest change*
Sample size^[9]	566-622	582-640	558-619	*581-635*	--
Response rate	63.0%	72.2%	63.9%	*63.2%*	--
Latest findings	Finding	Finding	Finding	*Finding & error*	--
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	43%	48%	48%	*48+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan	12%	13%	13%	*13+/-3%*	--
Net approval rate	31%	35%	36%	*35+/-6%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	39%^[10]	43%	44%	*42+/-4%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau	12%	10%	11%	*15+/-3%*	*+3%*
Net approval rate	27%^[10]	33%	32%	*27+/-6%*	*-5%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law	31%^[10]	37%^[10]	34%	*34+/-4%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law	15%^[10]	14%	11%	*13+/-3%*	*+2%*
Net approval rate	16%^[10]	23%	23%	*20+/-5%*	*-3%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau	21%^[10]	24%	25%	*23+/-4%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau	10%	8%	8%	*9+/-2%*	*+2%*
Net approval rate	12%	16%	17%	*14+/-5%*	*-3%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	33%^[10]	37%	38%	*33+/-4%*	*-5%^[10]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing	17%^[10]	21%	21%	*22+/-3%*	*+1%*
Net approval rate	16%^[10]	17%	17%	*10+/-6%*	*-7%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	20%	25%	25%	*23+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Development Michael Wong	15%	14%	15%	*15+/-3%*	*-1%*
Net approval rate	5%	10%	9%	*9+/-5%*	*-1%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	27%^[10]	37%^[10]	39%	*32+/-4%*	*-7%^[10]*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong	26%^[10]	21%	22%	*28+/-4%*	*+6%^[10]*
Net approval rate	1%^[10]	15%^[10]	17%	*4+/-6%*	*-13%^[10]*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip	20%	21%	21%	*21+/-3%*	--
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip	18%	18%	17%	*21+/-3%*	*+4%*
Net approval rate	2%	3%	4%	*0+/-5%*	*-4%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	32%	36%	31%	*29+/-4%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security John Lee	17%	21%	30%^[10]	*34+/-4%*	*+4%*
Net approval rate	14%^[10]	16%	2%^[10]	*-5+/-6%*	*-7%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	22%^[10]	24%	24%	*22+/-3%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang	23%	29%^[10]	24%	*29+/-4%*	*+5%^[10]*
Net approval rate	-1%	-5%	0%	*-7+/-6%*	*-7%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	22%	27%^[10]	24%	*24+/-3%*	*-1%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan	36%	38%	36%	*40+/-4%*	*+3%*
Net approval rate	-14%	-10%	-12%	*-16+/-6%*	*-4%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	24%^[10]	25%	25%	*21+/-3%*	*-4%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung	32%	32%	36%	*38+/-4%*	*+2%*
Net approval rate	-7%	-6%	-11%	*-18+/-6%*	*-7%*
Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	24%	26%	24%	*22+/-3%*	*-2%*
Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah	33%^[10]	40%^[10]	35%	*42+/-4%*	*+7%^[10]*
Net approval rate	-9%^[10]	-14%	-11%	*-20+/-6%*	*-9%*

[8] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

[9] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. These questions only use sub-samples of the surveys concerned; the sample size for each question also varies.

[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 44.3 marks, and 32% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 24 percentage points. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Matthew Cheung, FS Paul Chan and SJ Teresa Cheng were 43.5, 34.2 and 29.5 marks, while 23%, 16% and 11% would vote for their reappointments correspondingly. Their net approval rates are negative 6, negative 35 and negative 41 percentage points respectively.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, according to the net approval rates, results revealed that the top position goes to Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan, attaining positive 35 percentage points. The 2nd place belongs to Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau with a net approval rate of positive 27 percentage points. Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Lau, Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing, Secretary for Development Michael Wong, Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong, Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah ranked 3rd to 13th, their corresponding net approval rates are positive 20, positive 14, positive 10, positive 9, positive 4, zero, negative 5, negative 7, negative 16, negative 18 and negative 20 percentage points. In other words, no Director scored a net approval rate of over 50%.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 8 to 11 April, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 6 to 9 May, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

8/5/19	The Medical Council passes a proposal that exempts overseas specialists from the period of assessment.
7/5/19	Media continues to report on the controversies concerning the extradition bill.
2/5/19	Hong Kong’s GDP increases 0.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier.
29/4/19	The suspect in the Taiwan homicide case Chan Tong Kai is jailed for 29 months due to money laundering in Hong Kong.
28/4/19	People protest against the proposed changes to the extradition bill.
24/4/19	Four are jailed as the court hands down sentences to the nine Occupy Movement leaders.
15/4/19	Consumer Council finds excessive mercury levels in over half of tuna samples.
15/4/19	Hong Kong Policy Research Institute’s Hong Kong Vision Project organizes National Security Education Day Hong Kong Symposium.
9/4/19	The District Court convicts the nine Occupy Movement leaders and rules that civil disobedience is not a defense.
8/4/19	The Court of First Instance rules that building small houses through private treaty grants or land exchanges is not lawful traditional rights.

Online Opinion Analysis

In 2017, HKUPOP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, HKUPOP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.

Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of CE Carrie Lam has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, HKUPOP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:

Netizens discussed the proposed amendments to the extradition bill.

Carrie Lam attended the Question and Answer Session at the Legislative Council.

People protested against the proposed amendments to the extradition bill and urge Carrie Lam to step down.

The US government was concerned with the proposed amendments to the extradition bill.

The results show that online public opinion had been focusing on the proposed amendments to the extradition bill. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in CE popularity, readers could form their own judgment.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of HKUPOP, Frank Lee.

Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 44.3 marks, significantly decreased by 4.7 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 56%, net approval rate also significantly dropped by 12 percentage points to negative 24. Both her rating and net approval rate are at her record low since she took office.

As for the Secretaries of Departments, the latest support rating of CS Matthew Cheung is 43.5 marks, approval rate 23%, disapproval rate 29%, giving a net popularity of negative 6 percentage points. Both his rating and net approval rate are also at his record low since he took office. The latest support rating of FS Paul Chan is 34.2 marks, approval rate 16%, disapproval rate 51%, thus a net popularity of negative 35 percentage points. As for SJ Teresa Cheng, her support rating is 29.5 marks, registering a significant decrease of 4.7 marks compared to a month ago, registering a new record low since she took office. Her approval rate is 11%, disapproval rate 52%, giving a net popularity of negative 41 percentage points, registering a significant decrease of 11 percentage points compared to a month ago. In terms of popularity rating and net approval rate, Matthew Cheung continues to be the most popular Secretary of Department.

As for the Directors of Bureaux, compared to one month ago, the net approval rates of all 13 Directors have gone down, but only that of Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong has changed significantly, which dropped by 13 percentage points to positive 4. The net approval rates of Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip, Secretary for Security John Lee and Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung are at their record low since they took office. Among all the Directors, Secretary for Security John Lee, Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang, Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan, Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah register negative popularities, at negative 5, negative 7, negative 16, negative 18 and negative 20 percentage points respectively. Sophia Chan continues to be the most popular Director, with a net approval rate of positive 35 percentage points.

According to HKUPOP’s standard, no one falls under the category of “ideal” or “successful” performer. The performance of Sophia Chan, Edward Yau, Wong Kam-sing, Law Chi-kwong, John Lee, Frank Chan, Matthew Cheung, Lau Kong-wah, Nicholas Yang and Kevin Yeung can be labeled as “mediocre”. That of Joshua Law, Michael Wong, James Lau and Patrick Nip can be labeled as “inconspicuous”. Carrie Lam, Teresa Cheng and Paul Chan fall into the category of “depressing” performer, while no one falls into that of “disastrous”.

The following table summarizes the grading of CE Carrie Lam and the principal officials for readers’ easy reference:

“Ideal”: those with approval rates of over 66%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

“Successful”: those with approval rates of over 50%; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

“Mediocre”: those not belonging to other 5 types; ranked by their approval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

Secretary for Food and Health Sophia Chan Siu-chee (48%); Secretary for Commerce and Economic Development Edward Yau Tang-wah (42%); Secretary for the Environment Wong Kam-sing (33%); Secretary for Labour and Welfare Law Chi-kwong (32%); Secretary for Security John Lee Ka-chiu (29%); Secretary for Transport and Housing Frank Chan Fan (24%); CS Matthew Cheung Kin-chung (23%); Secretary for Home Affairs Lau Kong-wah (22%); Secretary for Innovation and Technology Nicholas Yang Wei-hsiung (22%); Secretary for Education Kevin Yeung Yun-hung (21%)

“Inconspicuous”: those with recognition rates of less than 50%; ranked by their approval rates ^[11]; the first figure inside bracket is approval rate while the second figure is recognition rate

Secretary for the Civil Service Joshua Law Chi-kong (34%, 47%); Secretary for Development Michael Wong Wai-lun (23%, 38%); Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury James Henry Lau Jr (23%, 33%); Secretary for Constitutional and Mainland Affairs Patrick Nip Tak-kuen (21%, 42%)

“Depressing”: those with disapproval rates of over 50%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

CE Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor (56%); SJ Teresa Cheng Yeuk-wah (52%); FS Paul Chan Mo-po (51%)

“Disastrous”: those with disapproval rates of over 66%; ranked by their disapproval rates shown inside brackets^[11]

[11] If the rounded figures are the same, numbers after the decimal point will be considered.

Future Release (Tentative)

May 21, 2019 (Tuesday) 12pm to 2pm: Social indicators

Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”

Technically, HKUPOP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. HKUPOP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, HKUPOP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.