HKU| FSS| Contact Us| Sitemap

• 
• 

Search Wizard

Local Public Figures Non-local Public Figures Research on Politics and Policies Social Research Groups & Organizations [-] [+]

Press Releases POP Polls POP Columns Features Research Report

Press Release on June 25, 2019

| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) | (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government)

| Detailed Findings (People's Trust in the HKSAR Government) |

| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with Current Political, Economic and livelihood conditions) |

| Detailed Findings (Public Sentiment Index Feature Page) |

Special Announcements

1. The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) would soon cease to operate. After today, there will be one more survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity and HKSAR 22nd Anniversary, the release date and arrangement of which are yet to be decided due to the need to handle the transition of HKUPOP to HKPOP. Today’s farewell release by HKUPOP shows that the popularity of CE Carrie Lam has dropped to a historical low compared with all former CEs, while the sharp plunge of the PSI is also uncommon. Robert Chung, Director of HKUPOP, calls for the CE and the Government to find a quick way to resolve the governance crisis.

2. Succeeding HKUPOP, the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) was officially incorporated on May 4, 2019. Under HKPORI, its Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) would be responsible for conducting public opinion surveys but it requires public funding before releasing them. HKPOP has finished setting the conditions and fees for public sponsorship, it hopes to receive support from civic organizations, interested media and passionate individual, in order to continue the tracking survey of 250 or so tracking surveys including that of CE popularity, SARG satisfaction, PSI and so on. Please contact us for sponsorship terms, or visit our website later at https://www.pori.hk.

3. Moreover, HKPOP will itself not conduct any rally headcount but will assist civil society to establish its own teams to conduct headcounts at different occasions. HKPOP will provide theoretical and technical support, including the release the results online. Such headcount projects will be launched at this year’s July 1 Rally, and four secondary schools have already enrolled. We will announce the details soon, and please also check on these social media accounts:

Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/HKPublicOpinionProgram
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/hkporihkpop (HKPOP)
Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/h.k.p.o.p

Abstract

HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of June. The rallies, protests and related controversies as a result of the amendments of the extradition bill appear to have affected public opinion to a fairly large extent. According to the final tracking survey of HKUPOP, the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 32.8 marks, rapidly dropped by 10.5 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 44 percentage points, also a significant drop of 20 percentage points. Both her popularity rating and net popularity have dropped to historical lows since she took office. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. Compared with all former CEs, Carrie Lam’s popularity rating is at all-time low now, her net popularity is record low since June 2017.

As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also rapidly dropped over the past month. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 18%, dissatisfaction rate 72%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 53 percentage points, a huge decline of 25 percentage points, also a new record low since July 2003. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 28%, distrust rate 60%, giving a net trust of negative 32 percentage points, another huge decline of 18 percentage points and at record low since the survey question was first asked in 1992. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 14, negative 41 and negative 74 percentage points. Among them, the net satisfaction of political condition also hits its record low since the survey question was first asked in 1992. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.

As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 71.5, down by 17.6 points from early June. This time among the two component scores of PSI, the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 13.7 points to 74.5, whereas the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 17.9 points to 67.2. Looking back, the PSI, SA and GA scored record lows in January 2016, at 52.8, 64.9 and 66.5 respectively. Although these three scores are not at their all-time low this time, the drop in PSI is the second largest in history. The biggest drop was registered in January 2016, with a drop of 21.4.

Contact Information

[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.

Popularity of CE and the Government

Latest Figures

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, HKUPOP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:

[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 32.8 marks, and 23% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 44 percentage points.

Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:

[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 650.

[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 18% were satisfied, whereas 72% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 53 percentage points. The mean score is 2.0, which was close to “quite dissatisfied”. As or people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 31%, 21% and 7% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 14, negative 41 and negative 74 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic and livelihood conditions were 2.7 and 2.3, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. The mean score of the political condition was 1.6, meaning between “quite dissatisfied” and “very dissatisfied” in general.

Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

[9] This question only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned

[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.

[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 28% of the respondents expressed trust. The net trust value is negative 32 percentage points, while the mean score is 2.4, meaning between “half-half” and “quite distrust” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 20 to 23 May, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 June, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

Online Opinion Analysis

In 2017, HKUPOP started collaborating with uMax Data Technology Limited to conduct “Online Opinion Analysis”. uMax Data would provide technical support concerning social big data to track posts in Facebook pages and various major forums in Hong Kong that mentioned specific political figures or organizations. When public opinion changes very significantly, HKUPOP will summarize the popular online posts about the specific political figures or organizations between the two surveys and compile a list of related events. Readers could make their own judgment if the events listed have impact on the related public opinion figures.

Since the latest survey findings reveal that the net approval rate of CE Carrie Lam has changed significantly compared to the figure recorded in the last survey, HKUPOP conducted “Online Opinion Analysis” to identify the top ten most discussed issues on the internet. The list of most discussed items after eliminating duplications is as follows:

The results show that online public opinion had been focusing on the extradition bill controversies. Whether or not these items could sufficiently explain the changes in CE popularity, readers could form their own judgment.

Public Sentiment Index

Background

The Public Sentiment Index (PSI) compiled by HKUPOP aims at quantifying Hong Kong people’s sentiments, in order to explain and predict the likelihood of collective behaviour. PSI comprises 2 components: one being Government Appraisal (GA) Score and the other being Society Appraisal (SA) Score. GA refers to people’s appraisal of society’s governance while SA refers to people’s appraisal of the social environment. Both GA and SA scores are compiled from a respective of 4 and 6 opinion survey figures. All PSI, GA and SA scores range between 0 to 200, with 100 meaning normal, the grading reference of the scores are shown below. For methodological detailed please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk.

At the end of June 2012, before the 15th anniversary of the handover of Hong Kong, HKUPOP officially released a PSI analysis with figures dating back to 1992, spanning over 20 years. Moreover, the frequency of the study was set at twice a month. Currently, the cut-off dates of all PSI analyses are set at the Sundays proceeding every 15th and last day of month. The first analysis of each month would be released through the HKU POP Site at the Thursday following the cut-off date, while the second analysis would be released at the first Tuesday of the following month through the HKU POP Site and press release.

Latest Figures of PSI

The PSI released by HKUPOP today shows that as of June 23, 2019, the latest Public Sentiment Index (PSI) is 71.5, down 17.6 from early June. As for the Government Appraisal (GA) and Society Appraisal (SA), the scores are 67.2 and 74.5, down by 17.9 and 13.7 respectively. The chart of PSI, GA and SA are shown below:

Recent values of PSI, GA, SA and 10 fundamental figures are tabulated as follows:

[14] HKUPOP will adopt the latest published figures when there are no respective updates.

As for the meaning of the score values, please refer to the following:

The latest PSI of 71.5 can be considered as among the worst 3% across the past 20 years or so, while the GA and SA scores of 67.2 and 74.5 can be considered as among the worst 1% and 4% respectively.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of HKUPOP, Frank Lee.

The rallies, protests and related controversies as a result of the amendments of the extradition bill appear to have affected public opinion to a fairly large extent. According to the final tracking survey of HKUPOP, the latest popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 32.8 marks, rapidly dropped by 10.5 marks compared to two weeks ago. Her approval rate is 23%, disapproval rate 67%, giving a net popularity of negative 44 percentage points, also a significant drop of 20 percentage points. Both her popularity rating and net popularity have dropped to historical lows since she took office. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of both support rate and rating. Compared with all former CEs, Carrie Lam’s popularity rating is at all-time low now, her net popularity is record low since June 2017.

As for the SAR Government, its popularity has also rapidly dropped over the past month. Its satisfaction rate now stands at 18%, dissatisfaction rate 72%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 53 percentage points, a huge decline of 25 percentage points, also a new record low since July 2003. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 28%, distrust rate 60%, giving a net trust of negative 32 percentage points, another huge decline of 18 percentage points and at record low since the survey question was first asked in 1992. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 14, negative 41 and negative 74 percentage points. Among them, the net satisfaction of political condition also hits its record low since the survey question was first asked in 1992.

As for the Public Sentiment Index (PSI), the latest PSI stands at 71.5, down by 17.6 points from early June. This time among the two component scores of PSI, the Society Appraisal (SA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of the social environment decreases by 13.7 points to 74.5, whereas the Government Appraisal (GA) Score that reflects people’s appraisal of society’s governance goes down by 17.9 points to 67.2. Looking back, the PSI, SA and GA scored record lows in January 2016, at 52.8, 64.9 and 66.5 respectively. Although these three scores are not at their all-time low this time, the drop in PSI is the second largest in history. The biggest drop was registered in January 2016, with a drop of 21.4. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.

Reference – Technical Notes of “Online Opinion Analysis”

Technically, HKUPOP research team firstly determines and inputs related keywords to be searched on the platform provided by uMax Data. HKUPOP then selects targeted online platforms to be monitored (currently selected: Facebook and forums), and extract the top five most discussed items on each online platform, thus come up with a list of 10 items in total. By eliminating duplications in the top ten items, HKUPOP compiles a table which is included in the press release for readers’ reference.

Reference Materials on Survey on PSI Please refer to the HKU POP Site at http://hkupop.pori.hk. Online resource: “PSI” methodological notes (Chinese Only) Online resource: PSI scores and their percentiles Online chart: PSI (per month) (1992-2019) Online chart: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2019) Online table: PSI (per release) (2012 – 2019) Online table: PSI (per month) (1992-2019) Online table: PSI (half-yearly average) (1992-2019)

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 80,971,967

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 110,019

• 
• 
• 
• 

Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

HKU POP all rights reserved.

Last update :  26/6/2019