Survey on Local Property Market and Intention to Purchase Property (December 2018, Sixth Round)Back

Research Background

In December 2018, Centaline Mortgage Broker Limited commissioned The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey from 3 to 6 September 2018 with 1,015 Cantonese-speaking citizens of Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The objective was to gauge the views of Hong Kong citizens on local property market and their intention to purchase property.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting Centaline Mortgage Broker Limited. Fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside parties. In other words, although POP has sought opinion from Centaline Mortgage Broker Limited regarding the questionnaire design, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research Team Members

Research Directors :	Project Manager :	Data Analyst :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert and PANG Ka-Lai Karie	LEE Wai-kin Frank	TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

Survey date	:	3 – 6 December 2018
Survey method	:	Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers
Target population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,015 successful cases (including 635 landline and 380 mobile numbers)
Response rate	:	56.6%
Standard error	:	Less than 1.6% (i.e. at 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-3.1 percentage points)
Weighting method	:	The data has been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”.

Research Design

Telephone interviews were conducted by telephone interviewers under close supervision. All data were collected by interviewers using a Web-based Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (Web-CATI) system invented in-house by the research team, which allowed real-time data capture and consolidation. To ensure data quality, on top of on-site supervision and random checking, voice recording, screen capturing and camera surveillance were used to monitor the interviewers’ performance.

Telephone numbers were randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers were then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

The target population of the survey was Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above who spoke Cantonese. After telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one eligible person was selected using “next birthday rule” for the interview. Telephone interviews were conducted during the period of 3 to 6 December, 2018. A total of 1,018 Hong Kong residents of age 18 or above were successfully interviewed, including 635 landline and 380 mobile numbers. The response rate of this survey was 56.6%, and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 1.6 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages using the total sample was less than plus/minus 3.1 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

To ensure representativeness of the findings, the raw data has been rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2017”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. All the figures in this report are rim-weighted figures.

Questionnaire (Chinese pdf format only)

Frequency Tables (Chinese pdf format only)

Press release (by client, Chinese only)