Survey Method

 

 
Since 1995, the POP Team has conducted rolling surveys before the Legislative Council elections. A particular number of interviews will be completed each day, while figures obtained will be consolidated a few days later. Figures will be added and dropped on a "plus one, minus one day" basis, and then released consecutively.
 
 
334 interviews with registered voters are expected to be completed every day in this year's rolling survey. In other words, more than 1,000 successful cases will be accumulated in 3 days and form a complete survey. Figures will then be released on a rolling aggregate basis. However, since the sample size in individual constituencies is relatively smaller, the relevant figures will roll every 5 days, with 150-250 registered voters to be covered each time, depending on the size of the geographical constituency. The closer the election, the larger the sample size will become in order to minimize the errors.
 
 
Same as the other telephone interviews conducted by the POP Team, all interviews in this rolling survey were conducted by telephone interviewers under close supervision. The target population was Cantonese-speaking registered voters in Hong Kong aged 18 or above. Telephone numbers were first drawn randomly from the residential telephone directories as "seed numbers", from which another set of numbers was generated using the "plus/minus one/two" method, in order to capture the unlisted numbers. Numbers were then mixed in random order to produce the final telephone sample. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one of the registered voters available was selected using the "next birthday rule", which selected the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present. Besides, all the raw data obtained in the rolling survey had been adjusted according to the age and gender distributions of voters in 5 geographical constituencies reported by the government. All data obtained in the rolling survey will be available in the "HKU POP SITE".