HKU| FSS| Contact Us| Sitemap

• 
• 

Search Wizard

Local Public Figures Non-local Public Figures Research on Politics and Policies Social Research Groups & Organizations [-] [+]

Press Releases POP Polls POP Columns Features Research Report

Press Release on June 27, 2019

| Detailed Findings (People's Ethnic Identity) |

| Detailed Findings (HKSAR Anniversary Surveys) |

Special Announcements

1. The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) would soon cease to operate, today it releases for the last time its tracking survey results, which show that the difference between Hong Kong people’s sense of identity between “Chinese” and “Hongkonger” has widened to 2.7 points, while those feeling proud of becoming a national citizen of China has dropped from over one-third last year to around one-quarter this year. All these indicators are at their record lows since the handover. Director of HKUPOP Robert Chung feels sorry and helpless at the result.

2. It is not sure whether such survey series would be continued under the Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) of the newly set up Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI), depending on the support of the civil society. However, HKPOP will do everything it can to solicit resources to kick-start its “2022 One Country Two Systems Mid-term Review Project”, and “ethnic identity”, “police power and civil rights”, “freedom and rule of law”… are topics that we must cover. HKPOP will draft its “2022 Project Proposal” and plan for organizing large-scale international conferences and local deliberation forums in the coming three years, so as to mobilize community resources to serve the community.

3. HKPORI started to operate officially on May 4, 2019 as a civil society conscientious enterprise. It will hold its first event on July 1, to provide theoretical and technical support to some civil research teams in rally head-counting, as well as to provide an online platform for them to release their counts around the clock. We will announce the details in due course, please also check on the following website and social media accounts:

HKPORI Site – https://pori.hk
Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/HKPublicOpinionProgram
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/hkporihkpop (HKPOP)
Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/h.k.p.o.p

Abstract

HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,015 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in the second half of June. Results of the survey conducted after the two rallies against the extradition bill clearly reflects the impact of this incident to Hong Kong citizens’ ethnic identity recognition and feelings towards the handover of sovereignty. Regarding people’s ethnic identity, whether in terms of strength rating, importance rating or identity index, the identity of “Hongkongers” continues to rank first, followed by “Asians”, “global citizens”, “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of the PRC”. Among them, the strength rating of the “Hongkongers” identity reaches all-time record high since 1997, while the importance rating and identity index also reach all-time record high since 2008. Meanwhile, the strength rating of the “Chinese” identity registers all-time record low since 1997, while other figures concerning “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of the PRC” register all-time record low since 2007 or 2008.

If we follow the usual research method of using a dichotomy of “Hongkonger” versus “Chinese” identity, the proportions of people identifying as “Hongkongers” outnumber those of “Chinese” both in their narrow and broad senses. Similarly, the proportions of people identifying as “Hongkongers” in narrow or broad senses register all-time record high since 1997, whereas the proportions of people identifying as “Chinese” in narrow or broad senses register all-time record low since 1997.

Regarding the HKSAR anniversary survey, as the 22nd handover anniversary approaches, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has plunged by 11 percentage points to 27%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud surged by 14 percentage points to 71%, registering all-time record low and record high since 1997 respectively. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, all figures have turned negative. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 23%, negative appraisal at 53%, resulting in a net value of negative 30 percentage points, which is an all-time record low since 1999. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondents, the less likely they feel proud of becoming a national citizen of China, and also the more negative they are toward the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong. The effective response rate of the survey is 58.7%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-5% and that of ratings is +/-2.8 at 95% confidence level.

Contact Information

[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.

[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.

[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.

[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.

Hong Kong People’s Ethnic Identity

Latest Figures

Latest figures on Hong Kong people’s ratings on different identities are tabulated as follows:

[5] “Identity index” is calculated for each respondent by taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings and then multiplied by 10. If either the strength or importance rating of a respondent is missing, it is substituted by the sample mean.

[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

The above figures were collected from independent rating questions and did not involve the dichotomy issue of “Hongkongers” and “Chinese”. Latest findings showed that the identity ratings for “Hongkongers”, “Asians” and “global citizens” were 8.61, 7.69 and 6.89 marks respectively, whereas those for “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of PRC” were 6.27, 5.87 and 4.82 marks respectively. As for the importance ratings, “Hongkongers”, “Asians” and “global citizens” scored 8.46, 6.64 and 6.53 marks respectively, while those for “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of PRC” were 5.96, 5.54 and 4.79 marks respectively.

Taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of each respondent and then multiply it by 10, we have an “identity index” between 0 and 100, with 0 meaning no feeling and 100 meaning extremely strong feeling. Using these identity indices, the order of Hong Kong people’s six identities was “Hongkongers”, “Asians”, “global citizens”, “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of PRC”. Their scores were 84.6, 70.1, 66.2, 60.2, 55.2 and 46.2 marks respectively.

As for the results from the survey mode used for long on Hong Kong people’s sense of ethnic identity, latest figures are tabulated as follows:

[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

When asked to make a choice among 4 given identities, namely, “Hongkongers”, “Chinese”, “Chinese in Hong Kong” and “Hongkongers in China”, 53% of the respondents identified themselves as “Hongkongers”, 11% as “Chinese”, 12% as “Chinese in Hong Kong”, while 23% identified themselves as “Hongkongers in China”. In other words, 76% of the respondents identified themselves as “Hongkongers” in a broad sense (i.e. either as “Hongkongers” or “Hongkongers in China”), 23% identified themselves as “Chinese” in a broad sense (i.e. either as “Chinese” or “Chinese in Hong Kong”), while 36% chose a mixed identity of “Hongkongers” and “Chinese” (i.e. either as “Chinese in Hong Kong” or “Hongkongers in China”).

Opinion Daily

In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 3 to 6 December, 2018 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 20 June, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

HKSAR Anniversary Survey

Latest Figures

The results of the HKSAR anniversary survey are tabulated as follows:

[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.

[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.

Results of the latest anniversary survey revealed that 27% of the respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China after the handover, while 71% said they did not have such feeling. As for the policies of the Central Government on Hong Kong after the handover, 23% of the respondents gave positive feedback, whereas 53% gave negative appraisal, giving a net appraisal of negative 30 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5 marks, meaning between “half-half” and “not quite good” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of whether respondents were proud of becoming a national citizen of China and their appraisal of Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong by respondents’ age, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Senior Data Analyst of HKUPOP, Edward Tai.

Results of the survey conducted after the two rallies against the extradition bill clearly reflects the impact of this incident to Hong Kong citizens’ ethnic identity recognition and feelings towards the handover of sovereignty. Regarding people’s ethnic identity, whether in terms of strength rating, importance rating or identity index, the identity of “Hongkongers” continues to rank first, followed by “Asians”, “global citizens”, “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of the PRC”. Among them, the strength rating of the “Hongkongers” identity reaches all-time record high since 1997, while the importance rating and identity index also reach all-time record high since 2008. Meanwhile, the strength rating of the “Chinese” identity registers all-time record low since 1997, while other figures concerning “members of the Chinese race”, “Chinese” and “citizens of the PRC” register all-time record low since 2007 or 2008.

If we follow the usual research method of using a dichotomy of “Hongkonger” versus “Chinese” identity, the proportions of people identifying as “Hongkongers” outnumber those of “Chinese” both in their narrow and broad senses. Similarly, the proportions of people identifying as “Hongkongers” in narrow or broad senses register all-time record high since 1997, whereas the proportions of people identifying as “Chinese” in narrow or broad senses register all-time record low since 1997.

Regarding the HKSAR anniversary survey, as the 22nd handover anniversary approaches, compared to this time last year, Hong Kong people’s sense of pride in becoming a national citizen of China has plunged by 11 percentage points to 27%, while the percentage of those not feeling proud surged by 14 percentage points to 71%, registering all-time record low and record high since 1997 respectively. As for people’s appraisal of the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong, all figures have turned negative. The latest proportion of positive appraisal stands at 23%, negative appraisal at 53%, resulting in a net value of negative 30 percentage points, which is an all-time record low since 1999. Indepth analyses show that the younger the respondents, the less likely they feel proud of becoming a national citizen of China, and also the more negative they are toward the Central Government’s policies on Hong Kong.

No. of hits since Jun 3, 2000: 80,972,856

No. of hits since Jan 1, 2018: 110,907

• 
• 
• 
• 

Everything carried in this website does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles and messages posted at the opinion platforms. Any responsibility, legal and otherwise, arising from any such item shall vest entirely with its author. The intellectual property of all information contained in this website, including questionnaire design and research reports, originally belongs to HKU POP unless specified otherwise. HKU POP opens their copyright to the world via this website, but would request all users to acknowledge their source properly.

HKU POP all rights reserved.

Last update :  26/6/2019