HKU POP starts its countdown release of government popularity and corporate ratingsBack
Press Release on May 28, 2019
| Detailed Findings (Rating of Chief Executive Carrie Lam) |
| Detailed Findings (People's Satisfaction with the HKSAR Government) |
| Detailed Findings (Ratings of Best Corporations) |
Special Announcements
1. The Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) started to operate officially on May 4, 2019 as a civil society conscientious enterprise to carry on the spirit of May Fourth Movement and the mission of the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) and to serve the society with integrity and quality. The Institute is now recruiting advisors and volunteers, we welcome people with passion to join us.
2. Under HKPORI will be a research program called Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) which will continue to conduct public opinion surveys but will require public funding before releasing them. This means that self-funded tracking surveys covering about 25 broad topics and almost 250 opinion questions, including people’s trust in the SAR Government and ratings of top corporations released today by HKUPOP for the last time, may or may not appear again after July.
3. To bid farewell, HKUPOP today lists the topics of 5 remaining releases to be issued before July. Due to the need to handle the transition of HKUPOP to HKPOP, the exact dates of these 5 releases are yet to be decided:
June Fourth Anniversary Survey: June 3, 2019 (Monday)
Popularity of CE and Principal Officials: to be decided
Popularity of disciplinary forces: to be decided
Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity, HKSAR Anniversary Survey: to be decided
Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government, Public Sentiment Index: to be
decided
4. For public releases on the establishment of HKPOP, please refer to our
website: https://hkupop.pori.hk/english/release/release1583_pr.html.
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update:
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Abstract
HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in late May. Our survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 44.7 marks. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors as compared to 2 weeks ago, but the net popularity has dropped to a new record low again since she took office. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of support rate.
As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 27%, dissatisfaction rate 55%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 28 percentage points, which has slightly dropped compared to one month ago. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 36%, distrust rate 50%, giving a net trust of negative 14 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 5, negative 30 and negative 58 percentage points.
As for the best fast food restaurants, HKUPOP conducted the survey by random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers in May in two stages. Our survey shows that the most well-known corporation was Café de Coral. Results of rating survey, however, show that McDonald’s has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 56.8 marks, followed by Fairwood and Café de Coral, with 55.9 and 55.1 marks respectively.
The effective response rate of the survey on the popularity of CE and the Government and the best corporations rating survey is 61.9%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
6-9/5/2019 (Naming stage of best fast food restaurants) 20-23/5/2019 (Other items) |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,018 (Naming stage of best fast food restaurants; including 671 landline and 347 mobile samples) 1,013 (Other items; including 675 landline and 338 mobile samples) |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
63.2% (Naming stage of best fast food restaurants) 61.9% (Other items) |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.0 at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Popularity of CE and the Government
Latest Figures
To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, HKUPOP today released via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data and related respondents’ demographics of the latest rating survey of CE Carrie Lam, together with those of regular rating surveys of former CEs CH Tung, Donald Tsang and CY Leung released earlier, for public examination. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.
Recent popularity figures of CE Carrie Lam are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
28/2-5/3/19 |
14-19/3/19 |
8-11/4/19 |
23-25/4/19 |
6-9/5/19 |
20-23/5/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size |
1,024 |
1,024 |
1,012 |
1,031 |
1,018 |
1,013 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
72.2% |
73.1% |
63.9% |
66.1% |
63.2% |
61.9% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Rating of CE Carrie Lam |
50.9 |
52.6 |
48.5[5] |
49.0 |
44.3[5] |
44.7+/-2.0 |
+0.4 |
|
Vote of confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
35% |
39% |
34%[5] |
36% |
32%[5] |
32+/-3% |
-- |
|
Vote of no confidence in CE Carrie Lam |
51%[5] |
45%[5] |
51%[5] |
49% |
56%[5] |
59+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Net approval rate |
-16%[5] |
-7%[5] |
-17%[5] |
-13% |
-24%[5] |
-27+/-6% |
-3% |
[5] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
The latest survey showed that CE Carrie Lam scored 44.7 marks, and 32% supported her as CE, her net approval rate is negative 27 percentage points.
Recent popularity figures of the HKSAR Government as well as people’s appraisal of society's conditions are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
17-20/12/18 |
21-24/1/19 |
18-21/2/19 |
14-19/3/19 |
23-25/4/19 |
20-23/5/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[6] |
1,000 |
1,000 |
1,001 |
1,024 |
1,031 |
1,013 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
60.6% |
59.0% |
72.1% |
73.1% |
66.1% |
61.9% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance[7] |
42%[8] |
27%[8] |
29% |
31% |
30% |
27+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance[7] |
36%[8] |
49%[8] |
46% |
49% |
48% |
55+/-4% |
+7%[8] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
5%[8] |
-23%[8] |
-17% |
-18% |
-19% |
-28+/-7% |
-9% |
|
Mean value[7] |
3.0[8] |
2.5[8] |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.6 |
2.5+/-0.1 |
-0.2[8] |
|
Current economic condition:
|
40% |
31%[8] |
36%[8] |
35% |
33% |
36+/-3% |
+3% |
|
Current economic condition:
|
32%[8] |
41%[8] |
37% |
42%[8] |
40% |
41+/-3% |
+1% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
8%[8] |
-10%[8] |
-1%[8] |
-7% |
-7% |
-5+/-6% |
+1% |
|
Mean value[7] |
3.0[8] |
2.8[8] |
2.9[8] |
2.8 |
2.8 |
2.8+/-0.1 |
-- |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
30%[8] |
21%[8] |
24% |
27% |
22%[8] |
26+/-3% |
+4%[8] |
|
Current livelihood condition:
|
46%[8] |
56%[8] |
55% |
54% |
59%[8] |
56+/-3% |
-4% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-16%[8] |
-34%[8] |
-31% |
-27% |
-37%[8] |
-30+/-5% |
+7%[8] |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.7[8] |
2.4[8] |
2.4 |
2.5 |
2.4[8] |
2.5+/-0.1 |
+0.1[8] |
|
Current political condition:
|
20% |
18% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
13+/-2% |
-3%[8] |
|
Current political condition:
|
56% |
62%[8] |
61% |
62% |
64% |
71+/-3% |
+7%[8] |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
-36% |
-43%[8] |
-44% |
-45% |
-48% |
-58+/-4% |
-10%[8] |
|
Mean value[7] |
2.4 |
2.2[8] |
2.2 |
2.2 |
2.1[8] |
1.9+/-0.1 |
-0.1[8] |
[6] The question on the satisfaction of SARG performance only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned. The sub-sample size for this survey is 656.
[7] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 27% were satisfied, whereas 55% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 28 percentage points. The mean score is 2.5, which is between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. As for people’s satisfaction with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions, the latest satisfaction rates were 36%, 26% and 13% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 5, negative 30 and negative 58 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic and livelihood conditions were 2.8 and 2.5, meaning between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general. The mean score of the political condition was 1.9, which was close to “quite dissatisfied”.
Recent figures regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
18-23/7/18 |
3-6/9/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
21-24/1/19 |
28/2-5/3/19 |
20-23/5/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size[9] |
595 |
515 |
553 |
532 |
639 |
686 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
49.0% |
50.4% |
67.9% |
59.0% |
72.2% |
61.9% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Trust in HKSAR Government[10 ] |
46% |
51% |
45%[11] |
44% |
34%[11] |
36+/-4% |
+2% |
|
Distrust in HKSAR Government[10] |
37% |
36% |
39% |
37% |
46%[11] |
50+/-4% |
+4% |
|
Net trust |
9% |
15% |
6% |
7% |
-12%[11] |
-14+/-7% |
-2% |
|
Mean value[10] |
3.0 |
3.1 |
3.0 |
3.0 |
2.7[11] |
2.7+/-0.1 |
-- |
[9] This question only uses sub-samples of the surveys concerned
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Regarding people’s trust in the HKSAR Government, 36% of the respondents expressed trust. The net trust value is negative 14 percentage points, while the mean score is 2.7, meaning between “half-half” and “quite distrust” in general.
Indepth Analysis
In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age and education attainment. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Carrie Lam as Chief Executive by respondents’ age and education attainment, with sub-sample size placed in brackets:
|
Date of survey: 20-23/5/2019 |
18-29 |
30-49 |
50 or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[12] |
Support |
13+/-5%
|
28+/-5%
|
42+/-4%
|
32+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
83+/-6%
|
63+/-5%
|
48+/-4%
|
59+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
5+/-3%
|
9+/-3%
|
10+/-3%
|
9+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
|
Date of survey: 20-23/5/2019 |
Primary or below |
Secondary |
Tertiary or above |
Overall sample |
|
|
Support / Oppose Carrie Lam as CE[13] |
Support |
46+/-7%
|
35+/-4%
|
21+/-4%
|
32+/-3%
|
|
Oppose |
43+/-7%
|
56+/-5%
|
71+/-5%
|
59+/-3%
|
|
|
Don’t know / Hard to say |
10+/-4%
|
8+/-3%
|
8+/-3%
|
9+/-2%
|
|
|
Total |
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
100%
|
|
[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 99% confidence level.
Opinion Daily
In 2007, HKUPOP started collaborating with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to HKUPOP a record of significant events of that day according to the research method designed by HKUPOP. These daily entries would then be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” after they are verified by HKUPOP.
For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from 23 to 25 April, 2019 while this survey was conducted from 20 to 23 May, 2019. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.
|
22/5/19 |
Members of Hong Kong Indigenous Ray Wong and Alan Li were granted refugee status in Germany last year. |
|
21/5/19 |
Vice Premier of the State Council Han Zheng says the central government supports the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
20/5/19 |
The government proposes to resume the second reading of the extradition bill in a full Legislative Council meeting directly. |
|
17/5/19 |
Director of the Liaison Office Wang Zhimin says the central government supports the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
14/5/19 |
Government refuses to hold a tripartite meeting with pro-establishment and pan-democrat camps over the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
13/5/19 |
China announces an additional 25% tariff on US goods. |
|
11/5/19 |
Pro-establishment and pan-democrats Legislative councilors clash during a meeting on the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
10/5/19 |
US announces an additional 25% tariff on Chinese goods. |
|
8/5/19 |
The Medical Council passes a proposal that exempts overseas specialists from the period of assessment. |
|
2/5/19 |
Hong Kong’s GDP increases 0.5% in the first quarter from a year earlier. |
|
28/4/19 |
People protest against the proposed changes to the extradition bill. |
|
24/4/19 |
Four are jailed as the court hands down sentences to the nine Occupy Movement leaders. |
Ratings of the Best Fast Food Restaurants
Background
In 2008, HKUPOP initiated a tracking survey series on Corporate Social Responsibility, aiming to gauge the public image of different commercial organizations in order to encourage them to become ethical companies and select the best corporations. There are a total of six modules under this survey series, namely, 1) Public Transportation, 2) Telecommunication, 3) Banks and Financial Services, 4) Real Estate and Property Development, 5) Retail, and 6) Fast Food Restaurant. At the beginning, these surveys were conducted once every three months, with two different modules each time. From July 2017, the frequency was changed to once every six months, with one module only for each survey. From July 2018, the frequency was further changed to once every year, with one module only for each survey.
The surveys were conducted in two stages. In the first stage naming survey, respondents were requested to nominate, unprompted, at most five relevant corporations that they were most familiar with. The three most frequently cited names would enter the next stage. During the second stage rating survey, respondents would be asked to rate the CSR performance for each of the shortlisted corporations using a 0-100 scale, in which 0 indicates extremely poor performance, 100 indicates extremely good performance, and 50 means half-half.
Latest Figures
In the naming survey, the fast food restaurants mentioned most frequently were Café de Coral, Fairwood and McDonald’s. The latest ratings of these corporations are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
21-22/3/17 |
7-8/6/17 |
6/12/17 |
6-7/6/18 |
20-23/5/19 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample size |
512 |
505 |
502 |
502 |
687 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate |
72.6% |
68.7% |
59.9% |
56.0% |
61.9% |
-- |
|
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
Recognition rate |
-- |
|
McDonald’s |
59.6[14] |
53.7[14] |
55.7 |
58.2[14] |
56.8+/-1.5 |
90.9% |
-1.3 |
|
Fairwood |
58.0 |
55.1[14] |
55.5 |
57.1 |
55.9+/-1.3 |
86.5% |
-1.2 |
|
Café de Coral |
57.5 |
53.1[14] |
53.2 |
57.3[14] |
55.1+/-1.3 |
86.5% |
-2.2[14] |
[14] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Our latest survey showed that McDonald’s was considered as having the best CSR reputation among local fast food restaurants, scored 56.8 marks, while Fairwood and Café de Coral scored 55.9 and 55.1 marks respectively.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of HKUPOP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey shows that the popularity rating of CE Carrie Lam now stands at 44.7 marks. Her approval rate is 32%, disapproval rate 59%, giving a net popularity of negative 27 percentage points. All changes registered are within sampling errors as compared to 2 weeks ago, but the net popularity has dropped to a new record low again since she took office. Indepth analysis shows that the younger and the more educated the respondents, the more critical they are of Carrie Lam as CE in terms of support rate.
As for the SAR Government, its satisfaction rate now stands at 27%, dissatisfaction rate 55%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 28 percentage points, which has slightly dropped compared to one month ago. As for people’s trust in the government, the trust rate now stands at 36%, distrust rate 50%, giving a net trust of negative 14 percentage points. As for the society’s appraisals, among economic, livelihood and political conditions, people remain to be least satisfied with the current political condition. The corresponding net satisfactions are negative 5, negative 30 and negative 58 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our “Opinion Daily”.
As for the best fast food restaurants, our latest survey shows that the most well-known corporation was Café de Coral. Results of rating survey, however, show that McDonald’s has the best CSR reputation in the sector, scoring 56.8 marks, followed by Fairwood and Café de Coral, with 55.9 and 55.1 marks respectively.
Future Release (Tentative)
