HKU POP final release: Popularity of police force drops to new low in recent yearsBack
Press Release on June 18, 2019
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Discipilnary Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the Hong Kong Police Force) |
| Detail Findings (People's Satisfaction with the Performance of the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong Garrison) |
Special Announcements
1. The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (HKUPOP) would soon cease to operate, releases of remaining regular survey findings, including the last popularity survey of the Chief Executive, the HKSAR Government, people’s ethnic identity, HKSAR anniversary survey, and the Public Sentiment Index, are all undecided due to the need to arrange transition matters. In its last survey on the popularity of disciplinary forces released today, HKUPOP gives its final alert to the Hong Kong Police Force as many of its popularity indicators drop to new lows in recent years. Robert Chung the Director of HKUPOP calls for both the government and the people to treasure the clean and professional image of the Force, because it was built up in a very hard way.
2. Succeeding HKUPOP, the Hong Kong Public Opinion Research Institute (HKPORI) has started to operate officially on May 4, 2019 as a civil society conscientious enterprise. Its website began to run on June 9 at https://www.pori.hk. The Institute is now recruiting advisors and volunteers. All people with passion and aspirations are welcome to join us. Under HKPORI is a Hong Kong Public Opinion Program (HKPOP) requires public funding before releasing surveys. However, HKPOP has suspended its funding campaign for the moment, in order to give way to other civic organizations and funds to raise money for more pressing needs. HKPOP now concentrates on recruiting advisors and volunteers.
3. Here are HKPORI’s social media accounts, please follow:
Facebook – https://www.facebook.com/HKPublicOpinionProgram
Twitter – https://www.twitter.com/hkporihkpop (HKPOP)
Instagram – https://www.instagram.com/h.k.p.o.p
Abstract
HKUPOP successfully interviewed 1,006 Hong Kong residents by random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers in early June. Our latest survey conducted before the two rallies against the extradition bill shows that the recognition rates of all nine disciplinary forces are higher than 90%, which shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 83.1 marks. The Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall rankings of all disciplinary forces have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, five of which are above 70, which is very good. However, the rating of the Civil Aid Service has dropped significantly, while the rating of the Correctional Services Department is at record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. The latest rating of the Police Force is 61.0 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 22 percentage points. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 56.8 marks, which is also a record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. Its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 35 percentage points. The effective response rate of the survey is 60.4%. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4%, that of net values is +/-7% and that of ratings is +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level.
Contact Information
|
Date of survey |
: |
3-6/6/2019 |
|
Survey method |
: |
Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers |
|
Target population |
: |
Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above |
|
Sample size[1] |
: |
1,006 (including 677 landline and 329 mobile samples) |
|
Effective response rate[2] |
: |
60.4% |
|
Sampling error[3] |
: |
Sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, that of net values not more than +/-7% and that of ratings not more than +/-2.9 at 95% confidence level |
|
Weighting method[4] |
: |
Rim-weighted according to figures provided by the Census and Statistics Department. The gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population came from “Mid-year population for 2018”, while the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution and economic activity status distribution came from “Women and Men in Hong Kong - Key Statistics (2018 Edition)”. |
[1] Starting from April 2018, HKUPOP revised the landline and mobile sample ratio to 2 to 1. The figures released today by HKUPOP have already incorporated landline and mobile samples.
[2] Before September 2017, “overall response rate” was used to report surveys’ contact information. Starting from September 2017, “effective response rate” was used. In July 2018, HKUPOP further revised the calculation of effective response rate. Thus, the response rates before and after the change cannot be directly compared.
[3] All error figures in this release are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times with different random samples, we would expect 95 times having the population parameter within the respective error margins calculated. Because of sampling errors, when quoting percentages, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, whereas one decimal place can be used when quoting rating figures.
[4] In the past, the mobile sample would be rim-weighted according to the basic Public Sentiment Index (PSI) figures collected in the landline sample. In July 2018, HKUPOP further refined the weighting method. The landline sample and the mobile sample would no longer be processed separately. The mobile sample would also no longer be adjusted using the basic PSI figures collected in the landline sample. The overall effect is that the importance of the mobile sample would be increased.
Latest Figures
Latest satisfaction ratings of Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
3-6/6/19 |
Latest change |
|
|
Sample size |
560-622 |
560-741 |
508-576 |
538-579 |
528 - 656 |
-- |
|
|
Response rate |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
67.9% |
60.4% |
-- |
|
|
Latest findings[5] |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
Recog % |
-- |
|
Fire Services Department |
84.2{1} |
84.1{1} |
84.1{1} |
82.9{1} |
83.1+/-1.3{1} |
98.9% |
+0.2 |
|
Government Flying Service |
79.5{2}[6] |
79.9{2} |
79.9{2} |
78.8{3} |
77.9+/-1.4{2} |
95.0% |
-0.8 |
|
Auxiliary Medical Service |
78.9{3}[6] |
79.5{3} |
79.8{3} |
79.3{2} |
77.4+/-1.3{3} |
95.3% |
-1.9 |
|
Customs and Excise Department |
73.5{4}[6] |
74.0{5} |
75.6{4}[6] |
74.1{4} |
73.4+/-1.5{4} |
96.4% |
-0.7 |
|
Immigration Department |
71.1{6} |
73.5{6}[6] |
73.7{5} |
71.5{6}[6] [7] |
70.2+/-1.7{5} |
98.2% |
-1.4 |
|
Civil Aid Service |
73.3{5} |
74.3{4} |
72.3{6}[6] |
73.3{5} |
69.9+/-1.6{6} |
90.0% |
-3.4[6] |
|
Independent Commission Against Corruption |
69.2{8}[6] |
71.9{7}[6] |
68.9{7}[6] |
68.9{7} |
67.7+/-1.9{7} |
95.9% |
-1.2 |
|
Correctional Services Department |
69.8{7} |
68.7{8} |
68.8{8} |
67.9{8} |
66.2+/-1.5{8} |
91.1% |
-1.7 |
|
Police Force |
64.1{9} |
66.9{9}[6] |
63.7{9}[6] |
62.5{9} |
61.0+/-2.1{9} |
98.8% |
-1.4 |
|
PLA Hong Kong Garrison |
63.3 |
64.1 |
61.0[6] |
57.8 |
56.8+/-2.9 |
74.4% |
-1.0 |
[5] Numbers in curly brackets { } indicate the rankings. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.
[6] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
[7] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level because of a change in the weighting method. If the previous weighting method was used, the changes would not have gone beyond the sampling errors.
The latest survey conducted in early June shows that the 1st to 3rd places regarding people’s satisfaction with disciplinary forces are the Fire Services Department, the Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service with satisfaction ratings of 83.1, 77.9 and 77.4 respectively. Next, the 4th to 6th ranks go to the Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service, with satisfaction ratings at 73.4, 70.2 and 69.9 marks respectively. Finally, the 7th to 9th places go to the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Hong Kong Police Force. Their satisfaction ratings are 67.7, 66.2 and 61.0 respectively. Besides, people’s latest satisfaction rating toward the PLA Hong Kong Garrison is 56.8 marks.
Latest satisfaction rates of the Hong Kong Police Force and the PLA Hong Kong Garrison using the 5-point scale are summarized as follows:
|
Date of survey |
22-25/5/17 |
14-16/11/17 |
21-25/5/18 |
15-19/11/18 |
3-6/6/19 |
Latest change |
|
Sample size |
562-595 |
590-741 |
542-566 |
557-576 |
594 - 638 |
-- |
|
Response rate |
69.7% |
62.8% |
55.9% |
67.9% |
60.4% |
-- |
|
Latest findings |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding |
Finding & error |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
58% |
59% |
54%[9] |
51% |
50+/-4% |
-1% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
23% |
22% |
28%[9] |
28% |
28+/-4% |
-- |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
35% |
37% |
26%[9] |
23% |
22+/-7% |
-1% |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.4 |
3.5 |
3.3[9] |
3.3 |
3.2+/-0.1 |
-- |
|
Satisfaction rate of the
|
44% |
52%[9] |
50% |
46% |
49+/-4% |
+3% |
|
Dissatisfaction rate of the
|
11% |
8%[9] |
10% |
16%[9] |
14+/-3% |
-2% |
|
Net satisfaction rate |
33% |
44%[9] |
41% |
30%[9] |
35+/-6% |
+5% |
|
Mean value[8] |
3.6 |
3.7 |
3.6 |
3.5 |
3.6+/-0.1 |
+0.1 |
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. From October to December 2018, HKUPOP conducted tests on the wordings used in different rating scales. Figures in the table are the combined results. Please visit the HKU POP Site for details.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful, and different weighting methods could have been applied in different surveys.
Survey results show that the satisfaction rate of the Police Force is 50%, dissatisfaction rate 28%, giving a net satisfaction rate of positive 22 percentage points and a mean score of 3.2, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general. Regarding the PLA Hong Kong Garrison, the satisfaction rate is 49%, dissatisfaction rate 14%, giving a net satisfaction of positive 35 percentage points, and a mean score of 3.6, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general.
Commentary
Note: The following commentary was written by Research Manager of HKUPOP, Frank Lee.
Our latest survey conducted before the two rallies against the extradition bill in early June shows that the recognition rates of all nine disciplinary forces are higher than 90%, which shows that Hong Kong people are rather familiar with all our disciplinary forces. In terms of relative rankings, the Fire Services Department continues to rank first with a rating of 83.1 marks. The Government Flying Service and the Auxiliary Medical Service rank second and third. The Customs and Excise Department, the Immigration Department and the Civil Aid Service rank fourth to sixth, while the Independent Commission Against Corruption, the Correctional Services Department and the Police Force rank seventh to ninth. Compared with the last survey, the overall rankings of all disciplinary forces have not changed much. In terms of absolute ratings, all nine disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, five of which are above 70, which is very good. However, the rating of the Civil Aid Service has dropped significantly, while the rating of the Correctional Services Department is at record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. The latest rating of the Police Force is 61.0 marks and remains the lowest among the nine disciplinary forces. Its net satisfaction rate is positive 22 percentage points. Meanwhile, the popularity rating of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison stands at 56.8 marks, which is also a record low since the survey question was first asked in mid-2012. Its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 35 percentage points.
