Ming Pao sponsored “Survey on CE Election and Occupy Central Campaign” (Eighth round)Back

Released on 11/1/2015by Ming Pao; online from 12/1/2015

Research Background

It is the eighth time that Ming Pao commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey since April, July, October 2013, January, May, September and November 2014 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the Chief Executive Election in 2017.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting Ming Pao, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager

LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst

TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

Survey Date	:	7-8/1/2015
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	500 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	67.3%
Sampling error	:	less than 2.2% (i.e. +/-4.5% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

Q1 According to the government proposal, in the 2017 CE election, the formation of the nominating committee will be the same as those of the election committee responsible for choosing the chief executive in 2012, that is the four sectors are comprised of 1,200 people , and each CE candidate has to have the support of at least half of the 1,200 nominating committee members and the number of candidates is limited to 2-3 people and then let citizens to have one person one vote. Do you think this suggestion is moving forward, backwards or neither both in terms of democracy?

	Frequency	Percentage
Moving forward in democracy	112	23
Moving backwards in democracy	145	29
Neither both	195	39
Don’t know/hard to say	44	9
Total	497	100

Q2 The ultimate political reform plan suggested by the government needs to be supported by 2/3 of the legislative councilors, will you: (Interviewers read out two options, order to be randomized by the computer)

	Frequency	Percentage
Agree with the plan, let citizens vote with one person one vote	280	56
Against the plan, would rather make no progress in the political reform	172	34
Don’t know/hard to say	47	9
Total	499	100

Q3 If the government commits that there would be a step further in making the election system more democratic after 2017, that is the 2022 CE election, will you: (Interviewers read out two options, order to be randomized by the computer)

	Frequency	Percentage
Agree with the plan, let citizens vote with one person one vote	320	64
Against the plan, would rather make no progress in the political reform	117	23
Don’t know/hard to say	63	13
Total	500	100

Photo source: Ming Pao

Crosstab analysis(Chinese only)

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