Ming Pao sponsored “Survey on CE Election and Occupy Central Campaign” (Seventh round)Back

Released on 10/11/2014 by Ming Pao; online from 10/11/2014

Research Background

It is the seventh time that Ming Pao commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey since April, July, October 2013, January, May and September 2014 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the Chief Executive Election in 2017 and the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting Ming Pao, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager

LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst

TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

Survey Date	:	31/10-5/11/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,005 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	64.6%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.2% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

Q1 In 2017 CE election, if the ultimate political reform proposal from the Central and SAR governments allows one-person-one-vote in CE election, but rejects the pan-democrats from participation, would you: (Read out first two options in randomized order)

	May 2014 (Fifth round)		September 2014 (Sixth round)		November 2014 (Seventh round)		Changes
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage	Percentage
Accept the proposal in order to allow one-person-one-vote in CE election	566	57	519	52	531	53	+1
Oppose the proposal in order to keep status quo in political system	279	28	364	37	340	34	-3
Don’t know / Hard to say	156	16	111	11	134	13	+2
Total	1002	100	994	100	1005	100

Q2 Some students and citizens are trying to fight for universal suffrage through occupy movement. Do you think the occupy movement should continue or stop? (Probe according to the answer given, read out the relevant options)

	Frequency		Percentage
Continue, with a larger scale	59		6
Continue, with the scale unchanged ) Continue	126	) 242	13	) 24
Continue, with a smaller scale (include reducing the number of occupied areas)	56		6
Stop, use other ways to fight for universal suffrage	365		36
Stop, because the goals have been attained ) Stop	78	) 700	8	)70
Stop, because occupying is wrong	257		26
Don’t know / Hard to say	63		6
Total	1005		100

Q3 Did you participate in the mass gatherings of the occupy movement recently? (If yes, how many times?)

		Frequency		Percentage
Yes		177		18
	1 time		23		2
	2 times		43		4
	3 times		40		4
	4 times		17		2
	5 times		15		2
	6 times		6		1
	7 times		2		<1
	8 times		5		1
	10 times		5		1
	Not less than 11 times		11		1
	Yes but cannot remember how many times		8		1
No		828		82
Total		1005		100

Photo source: Ming Pao

Crosstab analysis

Q2 x Q3

			Q3 Did you participate in the mass gatherings of the occupy movement recently?		Total
			Yes	No	Total
Q2 Some students and citizens are trying to fight for universal suffrage through occupy movement. Do you think the occupy movement should continue or stop?	Continue, with a larger scale	Frequency	33	26	59
	Continue, with a larger scale	Percentage	19%	3%	6%
	Continue, with the scale unchanged	Frequency	64	62	126
	Continue, with the scale unchanged	Percentage	36%	8%	13%
	Continue, with a smaller scale (include reducing the number of occupied areas)	Frequency	26	30	56
		Percentage	15%	4%	6%
	Stop, use other ways to fight for universal suffrage	Frequency	41	325	365
	Stop, use other ways to fight for universal suffrage	Percentage	23%	39%	36%
	Stop, because the goals have been attained	Frequency	3	74	78
	Stop, because the goals have been attained	Percentage	2%	9%	8%
	Stop, because occupying is wrong	Frequency	2	255	257
	Stop, because occupying is wrong	Percentage	1%	31%	26%
	Don’t know / Hard to say	Frequency	7	56	63
	Don’t know / Hard to say	Percentage	4%	7%	6%
Total		Frequency	177	828	1005
Total		Percentage	100%	100%	100%

Q2 (grouped) x Q3

			Q3 Did you participate in the mass gatherings of the occupy movement recently?		Total
			Yes	No	Total
Q2 Some students and citizens are trying to fight for universal suffrage through occupy movement. Do you think the occupy movement should continue or stop?	Continue	Frequency	124	119	242
	Continue	Percentage	70%	14%	24%
	Stop	Frequency	46	654	700
	Stop	Percentage	26%	79%	70%
	Don’t know / Hard to say	Frequency	7	56	63
	Don’t know / Hard to say	Percentage	4%	7%	6%
Total		Frequency	177	828	1005
Total		Percentage	100%	100%	100%

Other crosstab analysis [Chinese only]

Related news report

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