Ming Pao sponsored “Survey on CE Election and Occupy Central Campaign” (Sixth round)Back

Released on 10/9/2014 by Ming Pao; online from 10/9/2014

Research Background

It is the sixth time that Ming Pao commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey since April, July, October 2013, January and May 2014 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the Chief Executive Election in 2017 and the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement

The survey questionnaire mostly follows the ones used in previous series, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager

LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst

TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

First round survey

Survey Date	:	15-18/4/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,023 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	68.6%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

Second round survey

Survey Date	:	3-5/7/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.4%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Third round survey

Survey Date	:	2-4/10/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	65.7%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Fourth round surveys

Survey Date	:	21-24/1/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,017 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.3%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Fifith round survey

Survey Date	:	14-20/5/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,011 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.4%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

Sixth round survey

Survey Date	:	1-6/9/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,004 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.8%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

Q1 With regards to the Chief Executive election in 2017, it is proposed that the candidates should be first chosen by the nomination committee in order to make sure that they will not act against the Central Government, and then let Hong Kong citizens practice universal suffrage in electing the Chief Executive. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this proposal?

		April 2013 (First round)		July 2013 (Second round)		October 2013 (Third round)		January 2014 (Fourth round)				May 2014 (Fifth round)				September 2014 (Sixth round)				Changes
		Percentage		Percentage		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency
Very much agree	)Agree	19	) 44	19	) 43	21	) 48	212	) 503	21	) 49	238	) 510	24	) 51	220	) 439	22	)44	-2	-7
Quite agree	)Agree	25	) 44	23	) 43	27	) 48	292	) 503	29	) 49	273	) 510	27	) 51	219	) 439	22	)44	-5	-7
Half-half		15		11		8		125		12		116		12		124		12		+1
Quite disagree	) Disagree	13	) 35	16	) 38	16	) 36	146	) 325	14	) 32	121	) 285	12	) 28	125	) 363	12	) 36	0	+8
Very much disagree	) Disagree	22	) 35	22	) 38	20	) 36	179	) 325	18	) 32	164	) 285	16	) 28	238	) 363	24	) 36	+7	+8
Don’t know/ Hard to say		6		8		7		64		6		94		9		74		7		-2
Total		100		100		100		1017		100		1995		100		1001		100

Q2 In 2017 CE election, if the ultimate political reform proposal from the Central and SAR governments allows one-person-one-vote in CE election, but rejects the pan-democrats from participation, would you: (read out first two options in randomized order)

	May 2014 (Fifth round)		September 2014 (Sixth round)		Changes
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage	Percentage
Accept the proposal in order to allow one-person-one-vote in CE election	566	57	519	52	-4
Oppose the proposal in order to keep status quo in political system	279	28	364	37	+9
Don’t know/Hard to say	156	16	111	11	-4
Total	1002	100	994	100

Q3 Do you think that it is likely or unlikely of passing the political reform by the Legislative Council in order to implement 2017 civil referendum of the Chief Executive?

		January 2014 (Fourth round)				September 2014 (Sixth round)				Changes
		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Percentage
Very likely	) Likely	79	) 256	8	) 25	104	) 310	10	) 31	+3	+6
Quite likely	) Likely	178	) 256	17	) 25	206	) 310	20	) 31	+3	+6
Half-half		173		17		184		18		+1
Quite unlikely	) Unlikely	230	) 460	23	) 45	155	) 405	15	) 40	-7	-5
Very unlikely	) Unlikely	230	) 460	23	) 45	250	) 405	25	) 40	+2	-5
Don’t know/Hard to say		128		13		105		10		-2
Total		1017		100		1004		100

Q4 There have been suggestions to fight for the implementation of universal suffrage for the Chief Executive election in 2017 in Hong Kong via the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this suggestion?

		April 2013 (First round)		July 2013 (Second round)		October 2013 (Third round)		January 2014 (Fourth round)				May 2014 (Fifth round)				September 2014 (Sixth round)				Changes
		Percentage		Percentage		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Percentage
Very much agree	)Agree	9	) 25	15	) 32	12	) 25	105	) 254	10	) 25	89	) 245	9	) 24	121	) 270	12	) 27	+3	+3
Quite agree	)Agree	16	) 25	17	) 32	13	) 25	148	) 254	15	) 25	156	) 245	15	) 24	149	) 270	15	) 27	-1	+3
Half-half		18		13		11		120		12		113		11		135		14		+2
Quite disagree	) Disagree	21	) 51	21	) 46	22	) 55	253	) 584	25	) 57	208	) 567	21	) 56	175	) 544	17	) 54	-3	-2
Very much disagree	) Disagree	30	) 51	25	) 46	33	) 55	332	) 584	33	) 57	359	) 567	36	) 56	369	) 544	37	) 54	+1	-2
Don’t know/ Hard to say		7		9		9		59		6		84		8		52		5		-3
Total		100		100		100		1017		100		1008		100		1001		100

Photo source: Ming Pao

Time series Charts

Crosstab analysis [Chinese only]

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