Ming Pao sponsored “Survey on CE Election and Occupy Central Campaign” (fifth round)Back

Released on 26/5/2014 by Ming Pao; online from 26/5/2014; updated on 9/6/2014

Research Background

It is the fifth time that Ming Pao commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey since April, July and October 2013 and January 2014 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the Chief Executive Election in 2017 and the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement.

The survey questionnaire mostly follows the one used in the previous four rounds, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager

LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst

TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

First round survey

Survey Date	:	15-18/4/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,023 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	68.6%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

Second round survey

Survey Date	:	3-5/7/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.4%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Third round survey

Survey Date	:	2-4/10/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	65.7%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Fourth round surveys

Survey Date	:	21-24/1/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,017 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.3%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Fifith round survey

Survey Date	:	14-20/5/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,011 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.4%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

Q1 With regards to the Chief Executive election in 2017, it is proposed that the candidates should be first chosen by the nomination committee in order to make sure that they will not act against the Central Government, and then let Hong Kong citizens practice universal suffrage in electing the Chief Executive. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this proposal?

		April 2013 (First round)		July 2013 (Second round)		October 2013 (Third round)				January 2014 (Fourth round)				May 2014 (Fifth round)				Changes
		Percentage		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Percentage
Very much agree	)Agree	19	) 44	19	) 43	211	)488	21	) 48	212	) 503	21	) 49	238	) 510	24	) 51	+3	+2
Quite agree	)Agree	25	) 44	23	) 43	277	)488	27	) 48	292	) 503	29	) 49	273	) 510	27	) 51	-2	+2
Half-half		15		11		81		8		125		12		116		12		--
Quite disagree	) Disagree	13	) 35	16	) 38	165	)363	16	) 36	146	) 325	14	) 32	121	) 285	12	) 28	-2	-4
Very much disagree	) Disagree	22	) 35	22	) 38	198	)363	20	) 36	179	) 325	18	) 32	164	) 285	16	) 28	-2	-4
Don’t know/ Hard to say		6		8		75		7		64		6		94		9		+3
Total		100		100		1016		100		1017		100		1005		100

Q2 [new question] To what extend do you agree or disagree with “love country, love Hong Kong” as a rule of the nomination committee to select the CE candidates?

		May 2014 (Fifth round)
		Freq		Percentage
Very much agree	) Agree	239	) 499	24	) 49
Quite agree	) Agree	260	) 499	26	) 49
Half-half		143		14
Quite disagree	) Disagree	131	) 259	13	) 26
Very much disagree	) Disagree	128	) 259	13	) 26
Don’t know/ Hard to say		108		11
Total		1010		100

Q3 [new question] In 2017 CE election, if the ultimate political reform proposal from the Central and SAR governments allows one-person-one-vote in CE election, but rejects the pan-democrats from participation, would you: (read out first two options in randomized order)

	May 2014 (Fifth round)
	Freq	Percentage
Accept the proposal in order to allow one-person-one-vote in CE election	566	57
Oppose the proposal in order to keep status quo in political system	279	28
Don’t know/ Hard to say	156	16
Total	1002	100

Q4 There have been suggestions to fight for the implementation of universal suffrage for the Chief Executive election in 2017 in Hong Kong via the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this suggestion?

		April 2013 (First round)		July 2013 (Second round)		October 2013 (Third round)				January 2014 (Fourth round)				May 2014 (Fifth round)				Changes
		Percentage		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Freq		Percentage		Percentage
Very much agree	)Agree	9	) 25	15	) 32	119	) 253	12	) 25	105	) 254	10	) 25	89	) 245	9	) 24	-1	-1
Quite agree	)Agree	16	) 25	17	) 32	134	) 253	13	) 25	148	) 254	15	) 25	156	) 245	15	) 24	--	-1
Half-half		18		13		114		11		120		12		113		11		-1
Quite disagree	) Disagree	21	) 51	21	) 46	224	) 552	22	) 55	253	) 584	25	) 57	208	) 567	21	) 56	-4	-1
Very much disagree	) Disagree	30	) 51	25	) 46	328	) 552	33	) 55	332	) 584	33	) 57	359	) 567	36	) 56	+3	-1
Don’t know/ Hard to say		7		9		86		9		59		6		84		8		+2
Total		100		100		1016		100		1017		100		1008		100

Q5 [new question] To what extent do you agree or disagree that some Hong Kong politicians demand for foreign powers from Europe or the USA in order to fight for universal suffrage in Hong Kong?

		May 2014 (Fifth round)
		Freq		Percentage
Very much agree	) Agree	78	) 206	8	) 20
Quite agree	) Agree	129	) 206	13	) 20
Half-half		120		12
Quite disagree	) Disagree	246	) 572	24	) 57
Very much disagree	) Disagree	326	) 572	32	) 57
Don’t know/ Hard to say		110		11
Total		1008		100

Photo source: Ming Pao

Crosstab analysis [Chinese only]

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