Ming Pao sponsored “Survey on CE Election and Occupy Central Campaign” (fourth round)Back

Released on 5/2/2014 by Ming Pao; online from 5/2/2014

Research Background

It is the fourth time that Ming Pao commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey since April, July and October 2013 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the Chief Executive Election in 2017 and the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement.

The survey questionnaire mostly follows the one used in the first round, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors

CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager

LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst

TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

First round survey

Survey Date	:	15-18/4/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,023 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	68.6%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

Second round survey

Survey Date	:	3-5/7/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.4%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 year-end. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Third round survey

Survey Date	:	2-4/10/2013
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,016 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	65.7%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Fourth round surveys

Survey Date	:	21-24/1/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers were selected randomly from residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,017 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	66.3%
Sampling error	:	less than 1.6% (i.e. +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level)

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

Q1 With regards to the Chief Executive election in 2017, it is proposed that the candidates should be first chosen by the nomination committee in order to make sure that they will not act against the Central Government, and then let Hong Kong citizens practice universal suffrage in electing the Chief Executive. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this proposal?

		April 2013 (First round)				July 2013 (Second round)				October 2013 (Third round)				January 2014 (Fourth round)				Changes
		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Percentage
Very much agree	)Agree	192	) 450	19	) 44	197	) 434	19	) 43	211	) 488	21	) 48	212	) 503	21	) 49	--	+1
Quite agree	)Agree	258	) 450	25	) 44	237	) 434	23	) 43	277	) 488	27	) 48	292	) 503	29	) 49	+2	+1
Half-half		153		15		112		11		81		8		125		12		+4
Quite disagree	) Disagree	132	) 357	13	) 35	166	) 389	16	) 38	165	) 363	16	) 36	146	) 325	14	) 32	-2	-4
Very much disagree	) Disagree	224	) 357	22	) 35	223	) 389	22	) 38	198	) 363	20	) 36	179	) 325	18	) 32	-2	-4
Don’t know/ Hard to say		63		6		81		8		75		7		64		6		-1
Total		1023		100		1016		100		1016		100		1017		100

Q2 [new question] Do you think that it is likely or unlikely of passing the political reform by the Legislative Council in order to implement 2017 civil referendum of the Chief Executive?

		January 2014 (Fourth round)
		Frequency		Percentage
Very likely	) Likely	79	) 256	8	) 25
Quite likely	) Likely	178	) 256	17	) 25
Half-half		173		17
Quite unlikely	) Unlikely	230	) 460	23	) 45
Very unlikely	) Unlikely	230	) 460	23	) 45
Don’t know/ Hard to say		128		13
Total		1017		100

Q3 There have been suggestions to fight for the implementation of universal suffrage for the Chief Executive election in 2017 in Hong Kong via the “Occupy Central with Love and Peace” movement. To what extent do you agree or disagree with this suggestion?

		April 2013 (First round)				July 2013 (Second round)				October 2013 (Third round)				January 2014 (Fourth round)				Changes
		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Frequency		Percentage		Percentage
Very much agree	)Agree	91	) 251	9	) 25	152	) 323	15	) 32	119	) 253	12	) 25	105	) 254	10	) 25	-2	--
Quite agree	)Agree	159	) 251	16	) 25	171	) 323	17	) 32	134	) 253	13	) 25	148	) 254	15	) 25	+2	--
Half-half		183		18		136		13		114		11		120		12		+1
Quite disagree	) Disagree	218	) 521	21	) 51	211	) 467	21	) 46	224	) 552	22	) 55	253	) 584	25	) 57	+3	+2
Very much disagree	) Disagree	303	) 521	30	) 51	255	) 467	25	) 46	328	) 552	33	) 55	332	) 584	33	) 57	--	+2
Don’t know/ Hard to say		68		7		90		9		86		9		59		6		-3
Total		1023		100		1016		100		1016		100		1017		100

Photo source: Ming Pao

Crosstab analysis [Chinese only]

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