Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election - Overall results of all polling stationsBack
Conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong, "Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election" was partly sponsored by Cable TV, TVB and ATV. Some of the figures have been released by the sponsors on the election day, a few days after which they were also provided to some local academics specialized in election studies. POP Site then releases all data for public consumption, as part of POP's service to the community. Please acknowledge the source when re-printing or citing these figures. |
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Overall results of all polling stations | | Hong Kong Islands | Kowloon West | Kowloon East | New Territories West | New Territories East | |
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Survey Method |
Contact Information | | Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (as of 9:00pm) | Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (whole day figures) | |
Contact Information | ||
Sample size | 9,223 | |
Incomplete cases | 998 | |
Refusal cases | 3,611 | |
Response rate | 66.7% |
Overall results of all polling stations |
The sample size of the figures presented below is 9,223, which were obtained from 101 polling stations. This survey was co-sponsored by Cable TV, TVB and ATV. |
Q1 - Why did you come to vote today?
To fulfill civic responsibility | 63% |
To improve the social condition, livelihood and economy | 8% |
To accelerate democratic development/support direct election | 4% |
To respond to the call of relatives/neighbours/friends | 1% |
To respond to the call of the government | 1% |
To respond to the call of certain organizations | 0% |
To support certain candidate | 4% |
To support certain political party/camp | 1% |
Just a habit / Vote every time | 13% |
To follow the trend / Nothing to do | 2% |
Others | 3% |
Total | 100% |
Q2 - Have you ever voted in DB/MC/LC elections before?
Yes | 73% |
No | 26% |
Forgotten | 1% |
Total | 100% |
Q3 - How long have you been a registered voter?
Less than 6 months | 7% |
Less than a year | 4% |
Less than 2 years | 3% |
Less than 3 years | 3% |
Less than 4 years | 3% |
4 years or above | 70% |
Forgotten | 10% |
Total | 100% |
Q5 - Is your vote based on your support to the individual candidate, individual political party, combination of the whole list or consideration on strategic vote allocation?
Individual candidate | 54% |
Political party (skip to Q7) | 25% |
Combination of the whole list | 10% |
Consideration on strategic vote allocation (skip to Q7) | 4% |
Hard to say (skip to Q7) | 6% |
Total | 100% |
Q6 - What is the major reason for your voting for this candidate?
Past performance | 53% |
Political affiliation | 6% |
Platform | 20% |
Character / Personality | 9% |
Appearance | 0% |
Occupation / Education background | 2% |
Supported by relatives or friends | 1% |
Independent candidate | 1% |
Popularity | 1% |
Attracted by campaign materials / Performance during elections | 0% |
Same locality | 0% |
No other better options | 2% |
Supported by certain persons | 0% |
Others | 3% |
Total | 100% |
Q7 - Is your vote based on the candidates' political alignment or their economic and livelihood policies?
Political alignment | 33% |
Economic and livelihood policies | 54% |
Don't know / Hard to say | 13% |
Total | 100% |
Q8 - From which channel(s) did you know about this candidate?
Campaign materials / Attend election forums | 37% |
Personal contact with the candidate | 4% |
Contact with the campaign assistants | 1% |
Home visit by the candidate | 0% |
Newspaper or magazines | 17% |
Radio programmes | 4% |
TV programmes | 21% |
Recommended by Mutual Aid Committees | 0% |
Recommended by labour union or company | 1% |
Recommended by relatives or friends | 1% |
Worked as Councillor before | 7% |
Others | 7% |
Total | 100% |
Q9 - When did you decide to vote for this candidate prior to the election day?
On the election day | 11% |
1 or 2 days before the election day | 6% |
3 or 4 days before the election day | 5% |
Less than a week before the election day | 6% |
Less than 2 weeks before the election day | 8% |
After close of nomination i.e. after 4 Aug 2004 | 12% |
After open nomination i.e. after 22 Jul 2004 | 10% |
When candidates considered to run for elections, or even earlier | 42% |
Total | 100% |
Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (HKI)
1 Tsang Kin Shing (Bull)'s list | 1% |
2 Leung On Kay Angel's list | 1% |
3 Cheng Kai Nam Gary's list | 11% |
4 Chow Kit Bing Jennifer's list | 1% |
5 Tse Wai Chun Paul's list | 1% |
6 Lan Hong Tsung David's list | 0% |
7 Ho Sau Lan Cyd's list | 3% |
9 Fung Leung Lo's list | 0% |
11 Martin Lee's list | 25% |
Blank votes | 0% |
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered) | 27% |
Didn't vote in this constituency last time | 3% |
Forgotten | 28% |
Total | 100% |
Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (KlnW)
1 Fung Kin Kee Frederick's list | 14% |
2 Tsang Yok Sing Jasper's list | 8% |
3 Lau Chin Shek's list | 23% |
Blank votes | 0% |
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered) | 29% |
Didn't vote in this constituency last time | 3% |
Forgotten | 22% |
Total | 100% |
Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (KlnE)
1 Lam Hoi Shing's list | 0% |
2 Chan Yuen Han's list | 20% |
3 Szeto Wah's list | 26% |
4 Shi Kai Biu's list | 0% |
Blank votes | 1% |
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered) | 29% |
Didn't vote in this constituency last time | 3% |
Forgotten | 21% |
Total | 100% |
Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (NTW)
1 Yeung Fuk Kwong David's list | 1% |
2 Leung Yiu Chung's list | 7% |
3 Chan Wai Yip Albert's list | 4% |
4 Lee Cheuk Yan's list | 4% |
5 Man Yun Fei Angela's list | 0% |
6 Tam Yiu Chung's list | 10% |
7 Ho Chun Yan's list | 7% |
8 Lee Wing Tat's list | 6% |
Blank votes | 0% |
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered) | 30% |
Didn't vote in this constituency last time | 4% |
Forgotten | 27% |
Total | 100% |
Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (NTE)
1 Wong Sing Chi's list | 4% |
2 Lau Kong Wah's list | 12% |
3 Kan Ping Chee Brian's list | 0% |
4 Choy Kan Pui's list | 0% |
5 Lau Wai Hing Emily's list | 9% |
6 Law Cheung Kwok's list | 0% |
7 Cheng Kar Foo Andrew's list | 14% |
8 Wong Wang Fat Andrew's list | 5% |
9 Lau Hing Kee's list | 0% |
10 Leung Kwok Hung's list | 3% |
Blank votes | 0% |
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered) | 29% |
Didn't vote in this constituency last time | 3% |
Forgotten | 21% |
Total | 100% |
Q11 - Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?
Satisfied | 12% |
Half-half | 39% |
Dissatisfied | 47% |
Don't know / Hard to say | 2% |
Total | 100% |
Q12 - When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on the Chief Executive?
Now | 14% |
2007 (i.e. within 3 years) | 24% |
2012 (i.e. within 8 years) | 21% |
Within 9-10 years | 5% |
Within 11-15 years | 2% |
Within 16-20 years | 1% |
21 years or later | 3% |
As soon as possible | 7% |
Don't know | 23% |
Total | 100% |
Q13 - When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on all Legislative Council members, i.e. to abolish all functional constituency seats?
Now | 18% |
2008 (i.e. within 4 years) | 25% |
2012 (i.e. within 8 years) | 14% |
Within 9-10 years | 5% |
Within 11-15 years | 1% |
Within 16-20 years | 1% |
21 years or later | 3% |
As soon as possible | 7% |
Don't know | 26% |
Total | 100% |
D1 - Gender of voters
Male | 53% |
Female | 47% |
Total | 100% |
D2 - Age of voters
18 - 20 | 5% |
21 - 29 | 17% |
30 - 39 | 19% |
40 - 49 | 27% |
50 - 59 | 19% |
60 or above | 14% |
Total | 100% |
D3 - Marital status of voters
Single | 34% |
Married | 65% |
Separated | 0% |
Divorced | 1% |
Widowed | 1% |
Total | 100% |
D4 - Education attainment of voters
Primary or below | 16% |
Secondary | 43% |
Matriculated | 7% |
Tertiary, non-degree course | 6% |
Tertiary, degree course | 28% |
Total | 100% |
D5 - Occupation of voters
Executives and professionals | 31% |
Clerical and service workers | 22% |
Production workers | 10% |
Students | 8% |
Housewives | 13% |
Others | 16% |
Total | 100% |
D6 - Religious background of voters
None | 69% |
Christianity | 15% |
Catholicism | 5% |
Buddhism | 10% |
Taoism | 1% |
Mormonism | 0% |
Islam | 0% |
Others | 0% |
Total | 100% |
D7 - Whether voters are indigenous inhabitant of the New Territories
Yes | 19% |
No | 80% |
Don't know | 1% |
Total | 100% |
D8 - Whether voters have participated in the July 1 Demonstration
Yes | 26% |
No | 74% |
Forgotten | 0% |
Total | 100% |
Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (as of 9:00pm) * Embargoed until 2230 |
Results of Hong Kong Islands |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Ma Lik's list | 20% | 4.5% | Ma Lik | S. Y. Choy | |
2. Rita Fan's list | 16% | 4.2% | Rita Fan | ||
3. K. S. Tsang's list | 2% | 1.7% | |||
4. Yeung Sum's list | 38% | 5.6% | Yeung Sum, Martin Lee | Joseph Lai | |
5. K. F. Wong's list | 1% | < 1% | |||
6. Audrey Eu's list | 23% | 4.8% | Audrey Eu | Cyd Ho |
Results of Kowloon West |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Y. S. Lau's list | 1% | 1.2% | |||
2. Frederick Fung's list | 23% | 5.7% | Frederick Fung | ||
3. C. S. Lau's list | 14% | 4.7% | C. S. Lau | ||
4. Jasper Tsang's list | 28% | 6.1% | Jasper Tsang | ||
5. James To's list | 28% | 6.1% | James To | ||
6. S. L. Liu's list | 6% | 3.3% |
Results of Kowloon East |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. W. M. Li's list | 17% | 5.0% | W. M. Li | ||
2. K. L. Chan's list | 17% | 4.9% | K. L. Chan | ||
3. Albert Cheng's list | 22% | 5.5% | Albert Cheng | ||
4. Alan Leong's list | 22% | 5.5% | Alan Leong | ||
5. Y. H. Chan's list | 23% | 5.6% | Y. H. Chan |
Results of New Territories West |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Albert Chan's list | 9% | 2.7% | Albert Chan | ||
2. W. T. Lee's list | 15% | 3.4% | W. T. Lee | Y. S. Chan | |
3. C. Y. Ho's list | 14% | 3.3% | C. Y. Ho | ||
4. Y. C. Leung's list | 15% | 3.4% | Y. C. Leung | Andrew Wan | |
5. P. T. Chow's list | 0% | < 1% | |||
6. Stephen Char's list | 2% | 1.4% | |||
7. Y. C. Tam's list | 18% | 3.6% | Y. C. Tam | H. M. Cheung | |
8. T. L. Ng's list | 0% | < 1% | |||
9. Selina Chow's list | 12% | 3.1% | Selina Chow | ||
10. H. T. Lui's list | 1% | < 1% | |||
11. C. Y. Lee's list | 9% | 2.8% | C. Y. Lee | ||
12. T. S. Yim's list | 3% | 1.7% |
Results of New Territories East |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. K. H. Leung's list | 13% | 3.3% | K. H. Leung | ||
2. W. W. Tsoi's list | 3% | 1.7% | |||
3. Andrew Cheng's list | 40% | 4.7% | Andrew Cheng, Emily Lau, K. W. Tong | ||
4. James Tien's list | 18% | 3.7% | James Tien | ||
5. Andrew Wong's list | 5% | 2.1% | Andrew Wong | ||
6. K. W. Lau's list | 21% | 4.0% | K. W. Lau | K. Y. Li |
Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (whole day figures) |
Results of Hong Kong Islands |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Ma Lik's list | 19% | 4.1% | Ma Lik | S. Y. Choy | |
2. Rita Fan's list | 18% | 3.9% | Rita Fan | ||
3. K. S. Tsang's list | 2% | 1.6% | |||
4. Yeung Sum's list | 38% | 5.0% | Yeung Sum, Martin Lee | Joseph Lai | |
5. K. F. Wong's list | 1% | < 1% | |||
6. Audrey Eu's list | 22% | 4.3% | Audrey Eu | Cyd Ho |
Results of Kowloon West |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Y. S. Lau's list | 1% | 1.1% | |||
2. Frederick Fung's list | 22% | 5.1% | Frederick Fung | ||
3. C. S. Lau's list | 15% | 4.4% | C. S. Lau | ||
4. Jasper Tsang's list | 27% | 5.5% | Jasper Tsang | ||
5. James To's list | 28% | 5.5% | James To | ||
6. S. L. Liu's list | 7% | 3.0% |
Results of Kowloon East |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. W. M. Li's list | 18% | 4.7% | W. M. Li | ||
2. K. L. Chan's list | 16% | 4.4% | K. L. Chan | ||
3. Albert Cheng's list | 22% | 5.0% | Albert Cheng | ||
4. Alan Leong's list | 23% | 5.1% | Alan Leong | ||
5. Y. H. Chan's list | 22% | 5.1% | Y. H. Chan |
Results of New Territories West |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. Albert Chan's list | 9% | 2.5% | Albert Chan | ||
2. W. T. Lee's list | 15% | 3.1% | W. T. Lee | ||
3. C. Y. Ho's list | 11% | 2.7% | C. Y. Ho | ||
4. Y. C. Leung's list | 13% | 2.9% | Y. C. Leung | ||
5. P. T. Chow's list | 1% | < 1% | |||
6. Stephen Char's list | 3% | 1.6% | |||
7. Y. C. Tam's list | 20% | 3.5% | Y. C. Tam, H. M. Cheung | ||
8. T. L. Ng's list | 1% | < 1% | |||
9. Selina Chow's list | 14% | 3.0% | Selina Chow | ||
10. H. T. Lui's list | 1% | 1.0% | |||
11. C. Y. Lee's list | 9% | 2.5% | C. Y. Lee | ||
12. T. S. Yim's list | 3% | 1.4% |
Results of New Territories East |
Candidates' list | Projected % | Projected error | Extremely high possibility | Rather high possibility | Rather low possibility |
1. K. H. Leung's list | 12% | 2.9% | K. H. Leung | ||
2. W. W. Tsoi's list | 4% | 1.7% | |||
3. Andrew Cheng's list | 42% | 4.4% | Andrew Cheng, Emily Lau, K. W. Tong | ||
4. James Tien's list | 15% | 3.2% | James Tien | ||
5. Andrew Wong's list | 3% | 1.6% | |||
6. K. W. Lau's list | 23% | 3.8% | K. W. Lau, K. Y. Li |
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Overall results of all polling stations | | Hong Kong Islands | Kowloon West | Kowloon East | New Territories West | New Territories East | |