Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election - Overall results of all polling stationsBack

Conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong, "Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election" was partly sponsored by Cable TV, TVB and ATV. Some of the figures have been released by the sponsors on the election day, a few days after which they were also provided to some local academics specialized in election studies. POP Site then releases all data for public consumption, as part of POP's service to the community. Please acknowledge the source when re-printing or citing these figures.

| Survey Method | Contact Information |
| Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (as of 9:00pm) | Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (whole day figures) |

Contact Information
Sample size	9,223
Incomplete cases	998
Refusal cases	3,611
Response rate	66.7%

Overall results of all polling stations

The sample size of the figures presented below is 9,223, which were obtained from 101 polling stations.
This survey was co-sponsored by Cable TV, TVB and ATV.

Q1 - Why did you come to vote today?

To fulfill civic responsibility	63%
To improve the social condition, livelihood and economy	8%
To accelerate democratic development/support direct election	4%
To respond to the call of relatives/neighbours/friends	1%
To respond to the call of the government	1%
To respond to the call of certain organizations	0%
To support certain candidate	4%
To support certain political party/camp	1%
Just a habit / Vote every time	13%
To follow the trend / Nothing to do	2%
Others	3%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,156

Q2 - Have you ever voted in DB/MC/LC elections before?

Yes	73%
No	26%
Forgotten	1%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 0.9%. The sample size of these figures is 9,200

Q3 - How long have you been a registered voter?

Less than 6 months	7%
Less than a year	4%
Less than 2 years	3%
Less than 3 years	3%
Less than 4 years	3%
4 years or above	70%
Forgotten	10%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,187

Q5 - Is your vote based on your support to the individual candidate, individual political party, combination of the whole list or consideration on strategic vote allocation?

Individual candidate	54%
Political party (skip to Q7)	25%
Combination of the whole list	10%
Consideration on strategic vote allocation (skip to Q7)	4%
Hard to say (skip to Q7)	6%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.1%. The sample size of these figures is 8,966

Q6 - What is the major reason for your voting for this candidate?

Past performance	53%
Political affiliation	6%
Platform	20%
Character / Personality	9%
Appearance	0%
Occupation / Education background	2%
Supported by relatives or friends	1%
Independent candidate	1%
Popularity	1%
Attracted by campaign materials / Performance during elections	0%
Same locality	0%
No other better options	2%
Supported by certain persons	0%
Others	3%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.3%. The sample size of these figures is 5,755

Q7 - Is your vote based on the candidates' political alignment or their economic and livelihood policies?

Political alignment	33%
Economic and livelihood policies	54%
Don't know / Hard to say	13%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,031

Q8 - From which channel(s) did you know about this candidate?

Campaign materials / Attend election forums	37%
Personal contact with the candidate	4%
Contact with the campaign assistants	1%
Home visit by the candidate	0%
Newspaper or magazines	17%
Radio programmes	4%
TV programmes	21%
Recommended by Mutual Aid Committees	0%
Recommended by labour union or company	1%
Recommended by relatives or friends	1%
Worked as Councillor before	7%
Others	7%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,021

Q9 - When did you decide to vote for this candidate prior to the election day?

On the election day	11%
1 or 2 days before the election day	6%
3 or 4 days before the election day	5%
Less than a week before the election day	6%
Less than 2 weeks before the election day	8%
After close of nomination i.e. after 4 Aug 2004	12%
After open nomination i.e. after 22 Jul 2004	10%
When candidates considered to run for elections, or even earlier	42%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,010

Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (HKI)

1 Tsang Kin Shing (Bull)'s list	1%
2 Leung On Kay Angel's list	1%
3 Cheng Kai Nam Gary's list	11%
4 Chow Kit Bing Jennifer's list	1%
5 Tse Wai Chun Paul's list	1%
6 Lan Hong Tsung David's list	0%
7 Ho Sau Lan Cyd's list	3%
9 Fung Leung Lo's list	0%
11 Martin Lee's list	25%
Blank votes	0%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	27%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	3%
Forgotten	28%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 2.2%. The sample size of these figures is 1,588

Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (KlnW)

1 Fung Kin Kee Frederick's list	14%
2 Tsang Yok Sing Jasper's list	8%
3 Lau Chin Shek's list	23%
Blank votes	0%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	29%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	3%
Forgotten	22%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 2.8%. The sample size of these figures is 1,084

Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (KlnE)

1 Lam Hoi Shing's list	0%
2 Chan Yuen Han's list	20%
3 Szeto Wah's list	26%
4 Shi Kai Biu's list	0%
Blank votes	1%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	29%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	3%
Forgotten	21%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 2.5%. The sample size of these figures is 1,344

Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (NTW)

1 Yeung Fuk Kwong David's list	1%
2 Leung Yiu Chung's list	7%
3 Chan Wai Yip Albert's list	4%
4 Lee Cheuk Yan's list	4%
5 Man Yun Fei Angela's list	0%
6 Tam Yiu Chung's list	10%
7 Ho Chun Yan's list	7%
8 Lee Wing Tat's list	6%
Blank votes	0%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	30%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	4%
Forgotten	27%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 2.0%. The sample size of these figures is 2,133

Q10 - Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election? (NTE)

1 Wong Sing Chi's list	4%
2 Lau Kong Wah's list	12%
3 Kan Ping Chee Brian's list	0%
4 Choy Kan Pui's list	0%
5 Lau Wai Hing Emily's list	9%
6 Law Cheung Kwok's list	0%
7 Cheng Kar Foo Andrew's list	14%
8 Wong Wang Fat Andrew's list	5%
9 Lau Hing Kee's list	0%
10 Leung Kwok Hung's list	3%
Blank votes	0%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	29%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	3%
Forgotten	21%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 2.0%. The sample size of these figures is 2,046

Q11 - Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?

Satisfied	12%
Half-half	39%
Dissatisfied	47%
Don't know / Hard to say	2%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,117

Q12 - When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on the Chief Executive?

Now	14%
2007 (i.e. within 3 years)	24%
2012 (i.e. within 8 years)	21%
Within 9-10 years	5%
Within 11-15 years	2%
Within 16-20 years	1%
21 years or later	3%
As soon as possible	7%
Don't know	23%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 0.9%. The sample size of these figures is 9,027

Q13 - When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on all Legislative Council members, i.e. to abolish all functional constituency seats?

Now	18%
2008 (i.e. within 4 years)	25%
2012 (i.e. within 8 years)	14%
Within 9-10 years	5%
Within 11-15 years	1%
Within 16-20 years	1%
21 years or later	3%
As soon as possible	7%
Don't know	26%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 0.9%. The sample size of these figures is 9,039

D1 - Gender of voters

Male	53%
Female	47%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 9,169

D2 - Age of voters

18 - 20	5%
21 - 29	17%
30 - 39	19%
40 - 49	27%
50 - 59	19%
60 or above	14%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 0.9%. The sample size of these figures is 8,827

D3 - Marital status of voters

Single	34%
Married	65%
Separated	0%
Divorced	1%
Widowed	1%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 8,918

D4 - Education attainment of voters

Primary or below	16%
Secondary	43%
Matriculated	7%
Tertiary, non-degree course	6%
Tertiary, degree course	28%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.1%. The sample size of these figures is 8,779

D5 - Occupation of voters

Executives and professionals	31%
Clerical and service workers	22%
Production workers	10%
Students	8%
Housewives	13%
Others	16%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 8,701

D6 - Religious background of voters

None	69%
Christianity	15%
Catholicism	5%
Buddhism	10%
Taoism	1%
Mormonism	0%
Islam	0%
Others	0%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.0%. The sample size of these figures is 8,762

D7 - Whether voters are indigenous inhabitant of the New Territories

Yes	19%
No	80%
Don't know	1%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 1.2%. The sample size of these figures is 4,369

D8 - Whether voters have participated in the July 1 Demonstration

Yes	26%
No	74%
Forgotten	0%
Total	100%

The sampling error at 95% confidence level is 0.9%. The sample size of these figures is 8,725

Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (as of 9:00pm)

* Embargoed until 2230

Results of Hong Kong Islands

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Ma Lik's list	20%	4.5%	Ma Lik		S. Y. Choy
2. Rita Fan's list	16%	4.2%	Rita Fan
3. K. S. Tsang's list	2%	1.7%
4. Yeung Sum's list	38%	5.6%	Yeung Sum, Martin Lee		Joseph Lai
5. K. F. Wong's list	1%	< 1%
6. Audrey Eu's list	23%	4.8%	Audrey Eu	Cyd Ho

Results of Kowloon West

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Y. S. Lau's list	1%	1.2%
2. Frederick Fung's list	23%	5.7%	Frederick Fung
3. C. S. Lau's list	14%	4.7%	C. S. Lau
4. Jasper Tsang's list	28%	6.1%	Jasper Tsang
5. James To's list	28%	6.1%	James To
6. S. L. Liu's list	6%	3.3%

Results of Kowloon East

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. W. M. Li's list	17%	5.0%	W. M. Li
2. K. L. Chan's list	17%	4.9%	K. L. Chan
3. Albert Cheng's list	22%	5.5%	Albert Cheng
4. Alan Leong's list	22%	5.5%	Alan Leong
5. Y. H. Chan's list	23%	5.6%	Y. H. Chan

Results of New Territories West

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Albert Chan's list	9%	2.7%	Albert Chan
2. W. T. Lee's list	15%	3.4%	W. T. Lee		Y. S. Chan
3. C. Y. Ho's list	14%	3.3%	C. Y. Ho
4. Y. C. Leung's list	15%	3.4%	Y. C. Leung		Andrew Wan
5. P. T. Chow's list	0%	< 1%
6. Stephen Char's list	2%	1.4%
7. Y. C. Tam's list	18%	3.6%	Y. C. Tam	H. M. Cheung
8. T. L. Ng's list	0%	< 1%
9. Selina Chow's list	12%	3.1%	Selina Chow
10. H. T. Lui's list	1%	< 1%
11. C. Y. Lee's list	9%	2.8%	C. Y. Lee
12. T. S. Yim's list	3%	1.7%

Results of New Territories East

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. K. H. Leung's list	13%	3.3%	K. H. Leung
2. W. W. Tsoi's list	3%	1.7%
3. Andrew Cheng's list	40%	4.7%	Andrew Cheng, Emily Lau, K. W. Tong
4. James Tien's list	18%	3.7%	James Tien
5. Andrew Wong's list	5%	2.1%			Andrew Wong
6. K. W. Lau's list	21%	4.0%	K. W. Lau	K. Y. Li

Exit poll predictions for different constituencies (whole day figures)

Results of Hong Kong Islands

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Ma Lik's list	19%	4.1%	Ma Lik		S. Y. Choy
2. Rita Fan's list	18%	3.9%	Rita Fan
3. K. S. Tsang's list	2%	1.6%
4. Yeung Sum's list	38%	5.0%	Yeung Sum, Martin Lee		Joseph Lai
5. K. F. Wong's list	1%	< 1%
6. Audrey Eu's list	22%	4.3%	Audrey Eu	Cyd Ho

Results of Kowloon West

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Y. S. Lau's list	1%	1.1%
2. Frederick Fung's list	22%	5.1%	Frederick Fung
3. C. S. Lau's list	15%	4.4%	C. S. Lau
4. Jasper Tsang's list	27%	5.5%	Jasper Tsang
5. James To's list	28%	5.5%	James To
6. S. L. Liu's list	7%	3.0%

Results of Kowloon East

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. W. M. Li's list	18%	4.7%	W. M. Li
2. K. L. Chan's list	16%	4.4%	K. L. Chan
3. Albert Cheng's list	22%	5.0%	Albert Cheng
4. Alan Leong's list	23%	5.1%	Alan Leong
5. Y. H. Chan's list	22%	5.1%	Y. H. Chan

Results of New Territories West

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. Albert Chan's list	9%	2.5%	Albert Chan
2. W. T. Lee's list	15%	3.1%	W. T. Lee
3. C. Y. Ho's list	11%	2.7%	C. Y. Ho
4. Y. C. Leung's list	13%	2.9%	Y. C. Leung
5. P. T. Chow's list	1%	< 1%
6. Stephen Char's list	3%	1.6%
7. Y. C. Tam's list	20%	3.5%	Y. C. Tam, H. M. Cheung
8. T. L. Ng's list	1%	< 1%
9. Selina Chow's list	14%	3.0%	Selina Chow
10. H. T. Lui's list	1%	1.0%
11. C. Y. Lee's list	9%	2.5%	C. Y. Lee
12. T. S. Yim's list	3%	1.4%

Results of New Territories East

Candidates' list	Projected %	Projected error	Extremely high possibility	Rather high possibility	Rather low possibility
1. K. H. Leung's list	12%	2.9%	K. H. Leung
2. W. W. Tsoi's list	4%	1.7%
3. Andrew Cheng's list	42%	4.4%	Andrew Cheng, Emily Lau, K. W. Tong
4. James Tien's list	15%	3.2%	James Tien
5. Andrew Wong's list	3%	1.6%
6. K. W. Lau's list	23%	3.8%	K. W. Lau, K. Y. Li