Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council Election - Kowloon EastBack

This part of the survey was sponsored exclusively by Cable TV, TVB and ATV.
The figures have already been adjusted in accordance with the actual voting results.

Contact Information
Sample size	1393
Incomplete cases	40
Refusal cases	539
Response rate	70.6%

Analysis of voting inclination: Why did you come to vote today?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
To fulfill civic responsibility	18%	16%	26%	21%	19%	100%
	55%	49%	62%	64%	63%	59%
To improve the social condition, livelihood and economy	20%	25%	29%	15%	11%	100%
	8%	10%	9%	6%	5%	8%
To accelerate democratic development/support direct election	48%	0%	34%	14%	3%	100%
	7%	0%	4%	2%	1%	3%
To respond to the call of relatives/neighbours/friends	29%	36%	14%	14%	7%	100%
	2%	3%	1%	1%	1%	1%
To respond to the call of the government	12%	41%	12%	12%	24%	100%
	1%	4%	1%	1%	2%	2%
To respond to the call of certain organizations	67%	0%	33%	0%	0%	100%
	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
To support certain candidate	12%	14%	29%	19%	26%	100%
	4%	4%	7%	6%	8%	6%
To support certain political party/camp	8%	33%	33%	25%	0%	100%
	1%	2%	2%	2%	0%	1%
Just a habit / Vote every time	22%	27%	17%	16%	19%	100%
	17%	22%	10%	13%	17%	16%
To follow the trend / Nothing to do	26%	42%	5%	21%	5%	100%
	3%	4%	0%	2%	1%	2%
Others	12%	15%	31%	23%	19%	100%
	2%	2%	3%	3%	3%	3%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,007; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Have you ever voted in DB/MC/LC elections before?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Yes	21%	19%	25%	18%	18%	100%
	85%	82%	80%	73%	79%	80%
No	14%	17%	25%	26%	18%	100%
	14%	18%	20%	27%	20%	20%
Forgotten	50%	0%	0%	0%	50%	100%
	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Less than 6 months	12%	23%	19%	32%	14%	100%
	4%	8%	5%	11%	6%	7%
Less than a year	13%	6%	22%	44%	16%	100%
	2%	1%	3%	7%	3%	3%
Less than 2 years	22%	4%	36%	9%	29%	100%
	5%	1%	6%	2%	7%	4%
Less than 3 years	28%	0%	21%	28%	24%	100%
	4%	0%	2%	4%	4%	3%
Less than 4 years	16%	16%	11%	42%	16%	100%
	2%	2%	1%	4%	2%	2%
4 years or above	20%	21%	25%	16%	17%	100%
	76%	81%	74%	61%	69%	72%
Forgotten	15%	15%	25%	23%	21%	100%
	7%	7%	8%	10%	10%	8%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,005; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: How long have you been a registered voter? (Aggregated figures) #?

	Less than 4 years	4 years or above	Forgotten	Total
1. W. M. Li's list	17%	20%	15%	19%
2. K. L. Chan's list	12%	21%	15%	19%
3. Albert Cheng's list	23%	25%	25%	25%
4. Alan Leong's list	28%	16%	23%	19%
5. Y. H. Chan's list	20%	17%	22%	18%

Sample base being 1,005; figures add up vertically to 100%.
# Thanks to The One Country Two Systems Research Institute in funding this post-analysis in 2011.

Analysis of voting inclination: Is your vote based on your support to the individual candidate, individual political party, combination of the whole list or consideration on strategic vote allocation?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Individual candidate	11%	13%	28%	26%	22%	100%
	36%	44%	69%	83%	75%	62%
Political party (skip to Q7)	41%	33%	8%	3%	15%	100%
	45%	39%	7%	4%	17%	21%
Combination of the whole list	17%	11%	53%	6%	13%	100%
	5%	3%	11%	2%	4%	5%
Consideration on strategic vote allocation (skip to Q7)	36%	5%	42%	16%	0%	100%
	10%	2%	9%	5%	0%	6%
Hard to say (skip to Q7)	12%	38%	17%	22%	12%	100%
	4%	13%	4%	7%	4%	6%
Total	19%	18%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 998; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: What is the major reason for your voting for this candidate?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Past performance	17%	14%	24%	11%	33%	100%
	62%	47%	35%	20%	69%	43%
Political affiliation	21%	24%	21%	31%	3%	100%
	8%	8%	3%	6%	1%	4%
Platform	9%	8%	30%	37%	16%	100%
	14%	11%	20%	29%	15%	19%
Character / Personality	5%	17%	51%	15%	12%	100%
	8%	22%	29%	10%	9%	17%
Appearance	0%	0%	50%	50%	0%	100%
	0%	0%	1%	1%	0%	0%
Occupation / Education background	2%	4%	13%	71%	9%	100%
	1%	2%	3%	20%	3%	7%
Supported by relatives or friends	57%	43%	0%	0%	0%	100%
	5%	3%	0%	0%	0%	1%
Independent candidate	0%	0%	0%	92%	8%	100%
	0%	0%	0%	7%	1%	2%
Popularity	0%	13%	88%	0%	0%	100%
	0%	1%	4%	0%	0%	1%
Attracted by campaign materials / Performance during elections	0%	25%	75%	0%	0%	100%
	0%	1%	2%	0%	0%	1%
No other better options	9%	27%	27%	9%	27%	100%
	1%	3%	2%	1%	2%	2%
Supported by certain persons	0%	0%	0%	100%	0%	100%
	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%	0%
Others	5%	5%	37%	47%	5%	100%
	1%	1%	4%	6%	1%	3%
Total	12%	13%	30%	24%	21%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 668; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Is your vote based on the candidates' political alignment or their economic and livelihood policies?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Political alignment	26%	11%	30%	29%	4%	100%
	44%	18%	39%	49%	8%	33%
Economic and livelihood policies	15%	19%	23%	14%	29%	100%
	41%	55%	49%	39%	89%	54%
Don't know / Hard to say	21%	37%	21%	17%	4%	100%
	15%	26%	11%	12%	3%	13%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,003; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: From which channel(s) did you know about this candidate?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Campaign materials / Attend election forums	20%	18%	23%	18%	21%	100%
	35%	33%	31%	32%	39%	34%
Personal contact with the candidate	31%	33%	19%	6%	11%	100%
	6%	6%	3%	1%	2%	4%
Contact with the campaign assistants	19%	48%	10%	5%	19%	100%
	2%	5%	1%	1%	2%	2%
Home visit by the candidate	33%	0%	0%	0%	67%	100%
	1%	0%	0%	0%	1%	0%
Newspaper or magazines	18%	20%	21%	25%	15%	100%
	17%	20%	15%	23%	16%	18%
Radio programmes	5%	0%	83%	8%	4%	100%
	3%	0%	36%	5%	2%	11%
TV programmes	18%	19%	14%	31%	18%	100%
	18%	19%	11%	32%	20%	19%
Recommended by Mutual Aid Committees	25%	38%	0%	38%	0%	100%
	1%	2%	0%	2%	0%	1%
Recommended by labour union or company	11%	16%	11%	0%	63%	100%
	1%	2%	1%	0%	7%	2%
Recommended by relatives or friends	29%	29%	12%	24%	6%	100%
	3%	3%	1%	2%	1%	2%
Worked as Councillor before	49%	26%	0%	0%	26%	100%
	9%	5%	0%	0%	5%	3%
Others	26%	26%	12%	14%	21%	100%
	6%	6%	2%	3%	5%	4%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,004; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: When did you decide to vote for this candidate prior to the election day?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
On the election day	30%	18%	21%	19%	11%	100%
	16%	10%	8%	10%	6%	10%
1 or 2 days before the election day	21%	13%	25%	22%	19%	100%
	7%	4%	6%	7%	7%	6%
3 or 4 days before the election day	18%	29%	18%	11%	25%	100%
	5%	9%	4%	3%	8%	6%
Less than a week before the election day	13%	12%	30%	27%	18%	100%
	5%	4%	8%	9%	7%	7%
Less than 2 weeks before the election day	7%	13%	29%	37%	13%	100%
	3%	5%	9%	14%	6%	8%
After close of nomination i.e. after 4 Aug 2004	14%	10%	32%	36%	9%	100%
	8%	6%	15%	21%	6%	12%
After open nomination i.e. after 22 Jul 2004	10%	43%	16%	12%	19%	100%
	4%	15%	4%	4%	7%	7%
When candidates considered to run for elections, or even earlier	22%	19%	25%	13%	21%	100%
	52%	47%	45%	31%	54%	46%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,001; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Whom did you vote for in the pervious 2000 Legislative Council direct election?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
1. Lam Hoi Shing's list	100%	0%	0%	0%	0%	100%
	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
2 Chan Yuen Han's list	4%	40%	15%	8%	34%	100%
	4%	49%	13%	9%	44%	23%
3 Szeto Wah's list	35%	2%	35%	24%	3%	100%
	53%	3%	41%	36%	5%	29%
4 Shi Kai Biu's list	25%	25%	0%	50%	0%	100%
	1%	1%	0%	1%	0%	0%
Blank votes	10%	10%	40%	20%	20%	100%
	1%	1%	2%	1%	1%	1%
Haven't voted last time (including not yet registered)	15%	11%	28%	25%	21%	100%
	21%	16%	30%	34%	31%	27%
Didn't vote in this constituency last time	19%	15%	27%	27%	12%	100%
	3%	2%	3%	4%	2%	3%
Forgotten	19%	31%	17%	16%	17%	100%
	16%	28%	11%	14%	17%	17%
Total	19%	18%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 979; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the HKSAR Government?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Satisfied	5%	56%	10%	3%	25%	100%
	4%	43%	6%	3%	21%	15%
Half-half	16%	21%	16%	20%	28%	100%
	32%	41%	24%	39%	59%	38%
Dissatisfied	25%	5%	38%	24%	7%	100%
	59%	13%	70%	57%	18%	45%
Don't know / Hard to say	46%	21%	4%	13%	17%	100%
	6%	3%	0%	2%	2%	2%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,005; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on the Chief Executive?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Now	25%	1%	44%	23%	7%	100%
	16%	1%	22%	15%	5%	12%
2007 (i.e. within 3 years)	27%	8%	29%	24%	12%	100%
	33%	10%	27%	30%	16%	24%
2012 (i.e. within 8 years)	14%	16%	21%	26%	24%	100%
	16%	18%	18%	29%	29%	22%
Within 9-10 years	7%	16%	25%	11%	41%	100%
	2%	5%	6%	3%	13%	6%
Within 11-15 years	7%	32%	14%	21%	25%	100%
	1%	5%	2%	3%	4%	3%
Within 16-20 years	25%	25%	50%	0%	0%	100%
	1%	1%	1%	0%	0%	0%
21 years or later	6%	47%	9%	19%	19%	100%
	1%	8%	1%	3%	3%	3%
As soon as possible	30%	4%	39%	21%	6%	100%
	11%	2%	11%	8%	2%	7%
Don't know	16%	42%	14%	8%	21%	100%
	19%	52%	13%	9%	27%	23%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,001; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: When do you think Hong Kong will have sufficient conditions to have universal suffrage on all Legislative Council members, i.e. to abolish all functional constituency seats?

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Now	21%	2%	46%	23%	7%	100%
	19%	2%	32%	21%	7%	18%
2008 (i.e. within 4 years)	25%	7%	27%	29%	12%	100%
	32%	9%	26%	36%	17%	24%
2012 (i.e. within 8 years)	21%	18%	12%	23%	26%	100%
	16%	14%	7%	18%	22%	15%
Within 9-10 years	6%	13%	26%	12%	43%	100%
	2%	5%	7%	4%	17%	7%
Within 11-15 years	7%	50%	7%	17%	20%	100%
	1%	8%	1%	3%	3%	3%
Within 16-20 years	0%	67%	0%	0%	33%	100%
	0%	3%	0%	0%	2%	1%
21 years or later	25%	44%	6%	6%	19%	100%
	2%	4%	0%	1%	2%	2%
As soon as possible	30%	11%	41%	17%	2%	100%
	10%	4%	11%	6%	1%	7%
Don't know	14%	39%	16%	9%	22%	100%
	18%	51%	16%	11%	30%	25%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Male	20%	18%	27%	19%	16%	100%
	58%	56%	60%	56%	52%	57%
Female	19%	19%	23%	19%	20%	100%
	42%	44%	40%	44%	48%	43%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 1,010; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Age of voters

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
18 - 20	11%	5%	30%	18%	36%	100%
	4%	2%	8%	6%	14%	7%
21 - 29	23%	10%	29%	26%	12%	100%
	21%	9%	20%	24%	11%	17%
30 - 39	15%	9%	32%	25%	19%	100%
	16%	11%	28%	28%	23%	21%
40 - 49	20%	15%	24%	22%	19%	100%
	30%	23%	27%	32%	30%	28%
50 - 59	22%	33%	21%	7%	18%	100%
	15%	23%	11%	5%	13%	13%
60 or above	22%	47%	11%	8%	13%	100%
	15%	33%	6%	5%	10%	13%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 990; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Marital status of voters

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Single	18%	9%	28%	26%	19%	100%
	38%	21%	48%	57%	44%	42%
Married	21%	26%	23%	14%	17%	100%
	60%	78%	52%	41%	54%	57%
Separated	0%	0%	100%	0%	0%	100%
	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Divorced	33%	17%	17%	17%	17%	100%
	1%	1%	0%	1%	1%	1%
Widowed	14%	29%	0%	43%	14%	100%
	1%	1%	0%	2%	1%	1%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Primary or below	20%	45%	6%	12%	17%	100%
	17%	38%	4%	10%	15%	16%
Secondary	19%	15%	30%	17%	19%	100%
	46%	39%	58%	42%	51%	48%
Matriculated	13%	16%	37%	20%	14%	100%
	5%	6%	11%	8%	6%	8%
Tertiary, non-degree course	20%	12%	33%	16%	18%	100%
	5%	3%	6%	4%	5%	5%
Tertiary, degree course	21%	10%	21%	29%	18%	100%
	26%	13%	20%	36%	23%	23%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 997; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Occupation of voters

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Executives and professionals	17%	11%	24%	29%	18%	100%
	24%	16%	26%	41%	26%	26%
Clerical and service workers	23%	7%	32%	19%	19%	100%
	27%	8%	30%	24%	24%	23%
Production workers	17%	24%	26%	14%	18%	100%
	13%	19%	15%	11%	15%	15%
Students	14%	10%	31%	19%	26%	100%
	6%	5%	11%	9%	13%	9%
Housewives	20%	29%	18%	12%	21%	100%
	10%	14%	7%	6%	11%	9%
Others	22%	41%	16%	9%	12%	100%
	20%	38%	11%	9%	11%	17%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 992; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Religious background of voters

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
None	18%	18%	26%	19%	19%	100%
	64%	65%	71%	69%	69%	68%
Christianity	23%	9%	22%	22%	23%	100%
	20%	8%	15%	19%	21%	16%
Catholicism	20%	13%	39%	21%	7%	100%
	6%	4%	9%	6%	2%	6%
Buddhism	21%	41%	13%	11%	13%	100%
	11%	21%	5%	6%	7%	10%
Taoism	0%	75%	0%	0%	25%	100%
	0%	2%	0%	0%	1%	0%
Others	0%	67%	33%	0%	0%	100%
	0%	1%	0%	0%	0%	0%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 998; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.

Analysis of voting inclination: Whether voters have participated in the July 1 Demonstration

	1. W. M. Li's list	2. K. L. Chan's list	3. Albert Cheng's list	4. Alan Leong's list	5. Y. H. Chan's list	Total
Yes	28%	2%	35%	28%	7%	100%
	37%	3%	36%	38%	10%	26%
No	16%	24%	22%	16%	22%	100%
	63%	97%	64%	62%	90%	74%
Total	19%	19%	25%	19%	18%	100%
	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%	100%

Sample base being 988; for each set of figures, the first row of figures add up horizontally to 100%, while the second row of figures add up vertically to 100%.