Exit Poll of 2004 Legislative Council ElectionBack


Survey Method
  Information collection

Around one and a half month ago (around late July), POP began to collect information such as the constituency boundary maps, location of polling stations, population of different geographical constituencies, number of registered voters, background of candidates, as well as past election and voting records for future analysis and selection of stations. On the other hand, the research team also complied and filed, on a daily basis, the news and commentaries in relation to the elections, for internal reference.

 
  Selection of polling stations
According to previous experiences, around one-fifth of all the polling stations in Hong Kong were selected. Among the 501 polling stations, 101 stations were selected basing on the distribution of geographical constituency seats among 5 constituencies (Hong Kong Island 20, Kowloon West 13, Kowloon East 16, New Territories West 28, New Territories East 24), then according to the population distribution of registered voters in 18 districts (Central & Western 4, Wan Chai 2, Eastern 10, Southern 4, Yau Tsim Mong 3, Sham Shui Po 5, Kowloon City 5, Wong Tai Sin 7, Kwun Tong 9, Tsuen Wan 4, Tuen Mun 7, Yuen Long 7, Kwai Tsing 8, Islands 2, North 4, Tai Po 5, Sai Kung 5, Sha Tin 10. Finally 101 polling stations were selected in individual districts by clustering (A0201, A0501, A0701,A1001, B0401, B1101, C0201, C0601, C0801, C0901, C1301, C1401, C2002, C2401, C3001, C3601, D0801, D1201, D1501, D1701, E0501, E1201, E1601, F0901, F1401, F1701, F1801, F2101, G0101, G0702, G0901, G1601, G2201, H0201, H0501, H0601, H1301, H1501, H2001, H2201, J0401, J0501, J0801, J1101, J2001, J2201, J2401, J3101, J3301, K0801, K0901, K1103, K1401, L0501, L0801, L0901, L1201, L1701, L2101, L2601, M0201, M0601, M0801, M1401, M2501, M2602, M2901, S0401, S0701, S1101, S1301, S1601, S1801, S2201, S2601, T0301, T0501, N0401, N0803, N1001, N1603, P0401, P0501, P0601, P1302, P1801, Q0101, Q0401, Q0601, Q1201, Q1501, R0301, R0801, R1201, R1501, R1601, R2001, R2202, R2701, R3001, R3601), to represent the 501 stations in all constituencies.
 
  Operation of exit polls

A systematic sampling method was employed, and voters were sampled according to prescribed time segments and selection procedures, all at the exit of the polling stations. Data was either recorded with electronic palms or written down by interviewers. Figures were reported to the headquarters regularly. All figures were adjusted in accordance with the actual voting results at last. The analysis of voter behaviour included breakdown figures of voters' gender, age, marital status, education attainment, occupation and religious background, as well as the influence of July 1 Demonstration.