2012 Chief Executive Election Tracking Surveys (2012 First Round)Back

Research Background

Co-sponsored by several media institutions including Now News, AppleDaily, Ming Pao and SCMP, the 2012 Chief Executive election tracking surveys have been conducted on a weekly basis since 16 January, 2012. It aims at understanding citizens' support rate towards the three Chief Executive candidates (i.e. Albert Ho Chun Yan, Henry Tang Ying Yen and Leung Chun Ying) as well as tracking their trends.

The research instrument used in this study was designed by the POP Team, whilst fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is //hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,022 successful interviews, not 1,022 x 66.1% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Results Summary

Results of Individual Candidates

	Support rate	Question Number	Suitability rating	Question Number
Leung Chun Ying	45.9%	[leungQ1]	55.6	[leungQ2]
Henry Tang Ying Yen	29.8%	[tangQ1]	47.2	[tangQ2]
Albert Ho Chun Yan	13.0%	[hoQ1]	35.8	[hoQ2]

Results of 3-in-1 mode

[A1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow and the candidates are the following three people, who will you choose? (「Henry Tang Ying Yen」, 「Leung Chun Ying」 and 「Albert Ho Chun Yan」 in random order, choose one only)

	Frequency	Percentage
Leung Chun Ying	439	42.9
Henry Tang Ying Yen	303	29.7
Albert Ho Chun Yan	93	9.1
None of the above	104	10.2
Don't Know/Hard to Say/Abstain from voting	82	8.1
Total	1022	100.0

Team Members

Research Director :
Robert Ting Yiu Chung

Assistant Director :
Karie Ka Lai Pang

Research Executive :
Frank Wai Kin Lee

Data Analysis :
Edward Chit Fai Tai and Kelvin Chung Ho Yu

Contact Information

2012 First Round

Detailed Findings

Results of Individual Candidates (note: the order of Henry Tang Ying Yen, Leung Chun Ying and Albert Ho Chun Yan is randomized by computer)

[TangQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Henry Tang Ying Yen in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

	December 2011		January 2012
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage
Very much support	34	6.6	56	5.5
Quite support	101	19.9	249	24.3
Half-half	112	22.1	242	23.6
Quite oppose	123	24.2	268	26.2
Very much oppose	85	16.7	155	15.1
Don't know/Hard to say	54	10.5	53	5.2
Total	509	100.0	1022	100.0

[TangQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Henry Tang Ying Yen in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Henry Tang Ying Yen?

	October 2011	November 2011	December 2011	January 2012
Mean	43.6	44.2	46.1	47.2
Sampling error of rating	+/-2.2	+/-1.4	+/-2.1	+/-1.5
Median	50.0	50.0	50.0	50.0
Number of raters	487	987	486	981

[LeungQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Leung Chun Ying in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

	December 2011		January 2012
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage
Very much support	58	11.5	114	11.2
Quite support	194	38.1	354	34.7
Half-half	115	22.6	210	20.5
Quite oppose	78	15.3	199	19.4
Very much oppose	21	4.1	71	7.0
Don't know/Hard to say	43	8.4	73	7.2
Total	509	100.0	1022	100.0

[LeungQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Leung Chun Ying in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Leung Chun Ying?

	October 2011	November 2011	December 2011	January 2012
Mean	54.8	55.9	57.8	55.6
Sampling error of rating	+/-1.9	+/-1.2	+/-2.0	+/-1.3
Median	50.0	55.0	60.0	60.0
Number of raters	483	976	485	975

[HoQ1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow, do you support or oppose to having Albert Ho Chun Yan in becoming the Chief Executive before considering other candidates? (Interviewer probe intensity)

	January 2012
	Frequency	Percentage
Very much support	17	1.7
Quite support	116	11.3
Half-half	193	18.9
Quite oppose	375	36.7
Very much oppose	217	21.2
Don't know/Hard to say	103	10.1
Total	1022	100.0

[HoQ2] Please rate on a scale of 0-100 marks, the suitability of Albert Ho Chun Yan in becoming the Chief Executive, 0 marks represents definitely unsuitable while 100 marks represents definitely suitable, 50 marks represents half-half. How many marks will you give Albert Ho Chun Yan?

	January 2012
Mean	35.8
Sampling error of rating	+/-1.4
Median	40.0
Number of raters	939

Results of 「3-in-1」 mode

[A1] If you can elect the Chief Executive tomorrow and the candidates are the following three people, who will you choose? (「Henry Tang Ying Yen」, 「Leung Chun Ying」 and 「Albert Ho Chun Yan」 in random order, choose one only)

	9-11/1/2012		16-19/1/2012
	Frequency	Percentage	Frequency	Percentage
Henry Tang Ying Yen	161	31.3	303	29.7
Leung Chun Ying	216	42.0	439	42.9
Albert Ho Chun Yan	45	8.8	93	9.1
None of the above	80	15.6	104	10.2
Don't know/Hard to say/Abstain from voting	12	2.3	82	8.1
Total	514	100.0	1022	100.0

News coverage from media institutes

Appledaily:	News coverage on 21 January, 2012
Ming Pao:	News coverage on 21 January, 2012
SCMP:	News coverage on 21 January, 2012
Now News:	To be provided soon