HKU POP releases latest survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identityBack

Press Release on December 27, 2012

Special Announcement

(1) PopCon users correctly predicted Park Geun-hye to be President of South Korea

The “South Korean Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game” hosted by the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) run by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong finally collected over 1,000 guesstimate submissions, 53% of which correctly predicted Park Geun-hye to win, which is fairly close to the actual result. The game has accumulated 80,865 bonus PopCoins, winners will be announced soon.

(2) “Friends of POP” Recruitment Ongoing

POP is recruiting a team of “Friends of POP” to demonstrate civil power. “Friends of POP” will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 citizens), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end on December 31, 2012. Interested citizens are welcome to register at “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The first event will be the New Year rally study to be held on January 1st, 2013.

(3) Year-end Review

Since the figures released by POP at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2012, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Today’s release concerning the “survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity” includes a large amount of reference material, readers should click on the “What’s New” at “HKU POP SITE” (website: http://hkupop.pori.hk) and read in detail, in order to understand the background and controversy related to this survey series.

Abstract

The latest survey conducted by POP shows that if we use a dichotomy of ‘Hong Kong citizens’ versus ‘Chinese citizens’ to measure Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity, the proportion of people identifying themselves as ‘Hong Kong citizens’ outnumbers that of ‘Chinese citizens’ both in their narrow and broad senses, by 6 to 23 percentage points. For the overall sample, however, the percentages of those identifying themselves as ‘Hong Kong citizens’ have dropped significantly to record low since mid-2010, having mainly moved to the mixed identity of ‘Chinese Hong Kong citizens’ or ‘Hong Kong Chinese citizens’. In terms of absolute rating, people’s identification with all six identities has increased significantly compared to 6 months ago. That with ‘Hong Kong citizens’ has increased to all-time record high since the survey series began in 1997. Moreover, if we use ‘identity indices’ ranging between 0 and 100 to measure the strengths of people’s identities (the higher the index, the stronger the identity), Hong Kong people’s feeling is the strongest as ‘Hong Kong citizens’, followed by ‘members of the Chinese race’, then ‘Asians’, ‘Chinese citizens’, ‘global citizens’, and finally ‘citizens of the PRC’. All in all, Hong Kong people feel strongest as ‘Hong Kong citizens’, then followed by a number of cultural identities. The feeling of being ‘citizens of the PRC’ is the weakest among all identities tested. The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 67%.

Points to note：
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size is 1,019 successful interviews, not 1,019 x 67.5% response rates. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of various ratings not more than +/-0.23, sampling error of identity indices not more than +/-2.2, and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases via the POP Site the latest survey on people’s ethnic identity. All the figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year. Herewith the latest contact information:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages ^[6]	Maximum sampling error of ethnicity indices ^[6]
14-17/12/2012	1,019	67.5%	+/-3%	+/-2.2

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent figures on Hong Kong people’s ratings on separate identities are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey		17-22/6/11		12-20/12/11		13-20/6/12		14-17/12/12		Latest change
Sample base^[10]		503-596		534-551		527-601		669-696		--
Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding		Finding and error^[7]		--
Strength rating of being “Hong Kong citizens”	Identity index of being “Hong Kong citizens”^[9]	7.63^[8]	74.7^[8]	8.23^[8]	79.1^[8]	8.11	77.4	8.43+/-0.16	81.7 +/-1.5	+0.32^[8]	+4.3^[8]
Importance rating of being “Hong Kong citizens” ^[9]		7.50		7.78^[8]		7.64		8.12+/-0.17		+0.48^[8]
Strength rating of being “Members of the Chinese race”	Identity index of being “Members of the Chinese race” ^[9]	7.29	70.8	7.46	72.5	7.26	69.5^[8]	7.71+/-0.18	75.6 +/-1.8	+0.45^[8]	+6.1[8]
Importance rating of being “Members of the Chinese race” ^[9]		7.06		7.18		6.82^[8]		7.52+/-0.19		+0.70^[8]
Strength rating of being “Asians”	Identity index of being “Asians” ^[9]	7.63	71.2^[8]	7.65	72.1	7.45	69.2^[8]	7.74+/-0.19	72.7 +/-1.9	+0.29^[8]	+3.5^[8]
Importance rating of being “Asians” ^[9]		6.88		6.96		6.69^[8]		7.01+/-0.21		+0.32^[8]
Strength rating of being “Chinese citizens”	Identity index of being “Chinese citizens” ^[9]	7.24	70.7	7.01	67.9^[8]	6.99	67.0	7.47+/-0.20	72.4 +/-2.0	+0.48^[8]	+5.4^[8]
Importance rating of being “Chinese citizens” ^[9]		7.08		6.80^[8]		6.66		7.20+/-0.20		+0.54^[8]
Strength rating of being “global citizens”	Identity index of being “global citizens” ^[9]	6.88	67.0^[8]	6.91	67.0	6.61^[8]	63.6^[8]	7.06+/-0.21	67.4 +/-1.9	+0.45^[8]	+3.8^[8]
Importance rating of being “global citizens” ^[9]		6.65		6.68		6.35		6.68+/-0.23		+0.33^[8]
Strength rating of being “citizens of PRC”	Identity index of being “citizens of PRC” ^[9]	6.41	62.3	6.28	61.1	6.12	59.0	6.39+/-0.23	62.4 +/-2.2	+0.27^[8]	+3.4^[8]
Importance rating of being “citizens of PRC” ^[9]		6.31		6.12		5.85^[8]		6.29+/-0.23		+0.44^[8]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of ratings not more than +/-0.23 and sampling error of identity indices not more than +/-2.2 at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[9] New items since December 2008. “Identity index” is calculated for each identity of a respondent by taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of a certain identity, multiply by 10. If either the strength or importance rating of a respondent is missing, it is substituted by the sample mean of that identity.
[10] Since December 2008, the sub-sample size of the series of questions is controlled at slightly over 500 cases.

The above figures were collected from independent rating questions, but not involving the dichotomy issue of “Hong Kong citizens” and “Chinese citizens”. Latest findings showed that the identity ratings for “Hong Kong citizens”, “Asians” and “members of the Chinese race” were 8.43, 7.74 and 7.71 marks respectively. Using the same rating method, the strength of people’s identity as “Chinese citizens”, “global citizens” and “citizens of PRC” were 7.47, 7.06 and 6.39 marks respectively. As for the importance ratings, “Hong Kong citizens” and “members of the Chinese race” scored 8.12 and 7.52 marks respectively, while those for “Chinese citizens”, “Asians”, “global citizens” and “citizens of PRC” were 7.20, 7.01, 6.68 and 6.29 marks respectively.

Taking the geometric mean of the strength and importance ratings of each respondent and then multiply it by 10, we have an ‘identity index’ for the respondent for a certain identity between 0 and 100, with 0 meaning no feeling, 100 meaning extremely strong feeling, and 50 meaning half and half. Using these identity indices, the rank order of Hong Kong people’s six identities was “Hong Kong citizens”, “members of the Chinese race”, “Asians”, “Chinese citizens”, “global citizens” and “citizens of PRC”. Their scores were 81.7, 75.6, 72.7, 72.4, 67.4 and 62.4 marks respectively.

As for the results from the survey mode used for long on Hong Kong people’s sense of ethnic identity, recent figures are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	21-22/6/11	12-20/12/11	13-20/6/12	14-17/12/12	Latest Change
Sample base^[14]	520^[14]	541^[14]	560^[14]	687^[14]	--
Overall response rate	65.7%	66.4%	68.0%	67.5%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[11]	--
Identified themselves as “Hong Kong citizens”	44%^[13]	38%^[13]	46%^[13]	27+/-3%	-19%^[13]
Identified themselves as “Chinese citizens”	23%	17%^[13]	18%	21+/-3%	+3%
Identified themselves with a mixed identity of “Hong Kong citizens” plus “Chinese citizens” ^[12]	32%^[13]	43%^[13]	34%^[13]	49+/-4%	+15%^[13]
Identified themselves as “Hong Kong People” in broad sense	65%	63%	68%^[13]	60+/-4%	-8%^[13]
Identified themselves as “Chinese People” in broad sense	34%	34%	30%	37+/-4%	+7%^[13]

[11] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[12] This means the percentage of “Chinese Hong Kong citizens” plus “Hong Kong Chinese citizens”.
[13] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[14] Starting from June 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample size of this survey is 687, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.

When asked to make a choice among 4 given identities, namely, "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens", 27% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong citizens", 21% as "Chinese citizens", 33% as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", while 16% identified themselves as "Hong Kong Chinese citizens". In other words, 60% of the respondents identified themselves as "Hong Kong People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Hong Kong citizens" or "Chinese Hong Kong citizens"), whereas 37% identified themselves as "Chinese People" in the broader sense (i.e. either as "Chinese citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens"), 49% chose a mixed identity of “Hong Kong citizens plus Chinese citizens” (i.e. either as "Chinese Hong Kong citizens" or "Hong Kong Chinese citizens").

Because the concepts of "Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese Hong Kong citizens", "Chinese citizens" and "Hong Kong Chinese citizens" may overlap with each other, and making a one-in-four choice may not reflect the actual strengths of one's ethnic identities, POP has right from the beginning conducted parallel tests on the strengths of people's separate identities as "Hong Kong citizens" and "Chinese citizens" using a scale of 0-10, to study ethnic identity in different levels. In June 2007, POP has already expanded its study to include four new identities for strength rating, namely, “citizens of PRC”, “members of the Chinese race”, “Asians” and “global citizens”. In December 2008, the study was further expanded by including separate importance ratings for different identities, and the compilation of a separate index for each identity using geometric means. Though they may not be perfect, the complex studies adopted by POP were already very comprehensive.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For some of the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from June 13 to 20, 2012 while this survey was conducted from December 14 to 17, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/12/12	Government suggests the Court of Final Appeal consider asking for a Beijing clarification on right of abode cases.
15/11/12	The Communist Party of China has handed over helmsmanship to the new CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping and his colleagues.
7/11/12	Barack Obama is re-elected to U.S. President.
11/10/12	Mo Yan becomes the first Chinese author to win the Nobel Prize for literature.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.
4/10/12	Hong Kong goes into three days of mourning today for the 38 people killed in the ferry disaster.
18/9/12	People protest in 100 cities across China in memorial of the 918 incident.
15/9/12	Demonstrations are held in more than 20 cities across China against Japan's claims over the Diaoyu Islands.
7/9/12	Tens of thousands estimate to have descended on the government's headquarters at Tamar site against the national education curriculum.
6/9/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces only Hong Kong permanent residents will be able to buy flats at two new Kai Tak development.
25/8/12	China's gold medalists perform in the Mainland Olympic Gold Medalists Extravaganza.
15/8/12	Hong Kong activists smash their way through Japanese vessels to wave Chinese flags on the Diaoyus.
7/8/12	Liu Xiang crashes at the first barrier in the 110m hurdles in London Olympics.
4/8/12	Lee Wai Sze wins Hong Kong's first medal at the London Olympics.
1/7/12	Many newspapers on the following day report the July 1 demonstration.

Commentary

Robert Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that if we use a dichotomy of ‘Hong Kong citizens’ versus ‘Chinese citizens’ to measure Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity, the proportion of people identifying themselves as ‘Hong Kong citizens’ outnumbers that of ‘Chinese citizens’ both in their narrow and broad senses, by 6 to 23 percentage points. For the overall sample, however, the percentages of those identifying themselves as ‘Hong Kong citizens’ have dropped significantly to record low since mid-2010, having mainly moved to the mixed identity of ‘Chinese Hong Kong citizens’ or ‘Hong Kong Chinese citizens’. In terms of absolute rating, people’s identification with all six identities has increased significantly compared to 6 months ago. That with ‘Hong Kong citizens’ has increased to all-time record high since the survey series began in 1997. Moreover, if we use ‘identity indices’ ranging between 0 and 100 to measure the strengths of people’s identities (the higher the index, the stronger the identity), Hong Kong people’s feeling is the strongest as ‘Hong Kong citizens’, followed by ‘members of the Chinese race’, then ‘Asians’, ‘Chinese citizens’, ‘global citizens’, and finally ‘citizens of the PRC’. All in all, Hong Kong people feel strongest as ‘Hong Kong citizens’, then followed by a number of cultural identities. The feeling of being ‘citizens of the PRC’ is the weakest among all identities tested. As for the reasons behind the ups and downs of these figures, we will leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 31, 2012 (Monday) 1pm to 2pm: 2011 year-end and 2012 forecast survey
January 2, 2013 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government

Reference materials on survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity

POP Resources: Full questionnaire of “survey on Hong Kong people’s ethnic identity”
Online Chart 1: Strength of “Hong Kong citizen” identity (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 2: Strength of “Chinese citizen” identity (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 3: Identity Indices of Hong Kong People
Online Chart 4 : Ethnic Identity – Hong Kong Citizen (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 5 : Ethnic Identity – Chinese Citizen (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 6 : Ethnic Identity – Mixed Identity (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 7 : Ethnic Identity – “Hong Kong People” in broad sense (per poll, by age group)
Online Chart 8 : Ethnic Identity – “Chinese People” in broad sense (per poll, by age group)
POP Resources: Article “Survey on Ethnic Identity of Hong Kong People” by Robert Chung
POP Resources: Full set of documents submitted to Panel on Education of Legislation Council in March 2012 by Robert Chung