Press Release on April 4, 2007
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| Background Information | CE Election Follow-up
Survey | CE Election March 15 Debate Follow-up Survey | News about POP
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| Detailed Findings (Follow-up
Poll of the Chief Executive Election 2007
| Follow-up
Poll of the Chief Executive Election Forum 2007)
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| Background Information |
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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted two follow-up surveys regarding the CE election. The first survey measured the general public's appraisal of the CE election, while the second survey interviewed participants and absentees of the CE Election Debate held on March 15 to gauge their views of the debate. The results of both follow-up surveys are released today via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk).
The main purpose of the first follow-up survey is to compare people's satisfaction with this year's CE election with those held on 1996 and 2005, in order to pin down the merits and demerits of this year's election.
As for the second follow-up survey, we tried to interview all 115 members of the general public who were randomly selected and then confirmed by POP to attend the CE election debate. According to our records, 102 of the 115 invited showed up at the debate, the remaining 13 were absent. We tried to interview all participants for their appraisal of the two candidates' performance at the debate, and to ask everybody for their views on the organization of the debate. We also compare the views of these onsite audience with the views of the general audience obtained from our CE election debate instant poll, in order to study the different reactions of the two groups. In our debate follow-up survey, we have successfully interviewed 88 participants and 12 absentees.
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| CE Election Follow-up Survey: Findings |
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Herewith the contact information for this year's follow-up survey:
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| Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| 26-30/3/2007 |
509 |
62.8% |
+/-
4% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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With regard to the CE election survey, the result of many rounds of surveys conducted by POP in 1996 and 2005 are now reorganized under the "CE Election Feature Page" of the POP Site. As for the CE election surveys in 2007, the results of the surveys have already been released. This follow-up survey released today is the last one of the series, in which people's opinions of Donald Tsang's success and the whole process were gauged. The figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population. Results are now tabulated below, together with the corresponding questions and figures obtained in 1996 and 2005.
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| Date of survey |
11/12/96 |
20-23/6/05 |
26-30/3/07 |
| Sample base |
1,301 |
1,026 |
509 |
| Overall response rate |
65.3% |
61.9% |
62.8% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-4% |
1996: Has Tung's winning affected your confidence in the future of Hong
Kong?
2005 and 2007: Has Donald Tsang's success in the CE election increased or reduced your confidence in the future of Hong Kong? |
| Confidence in the future of Hong Kong increased |
12% |
52% |
31% |
| No effect/No change in the future of Hong Kong |
73% |
42% |
59% |
| Confidence in the future of Hong Kong reduced |
4% |
1% |
5% |
1996: Are you satisfied with the selection process of the first
CE?
2005 and 2007: Are you satisfied with the whole CE election process? |
| Satisfied ** |
39% |
36% |
44% |
| Half-half |
15% |
22% |
29% |
| Dissatisfied ** |
31% |
30% |
22% |
| 2005 and 2007: Do you think Donald Tsang has achieved his goal of facing the general public during the election process? |
| Yes |
-- |
37% |
50% |
| Half-half |
-- |
22% |
22% |
| No |
-- |
30% |
20% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
**Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
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Figures reveal that, 31% of the respondents believed that Donald Tsang's success in the CE election has increased their confidence in the future of Hong Kong, whereas 5% said their confidence reduced and 59% said no change. As for the whole CE election process, 44% and 22% expressed satisfaction and dissatisfaction with the process respectively, while another 29% opted for "Half-half". 50% of the respondents thought that Donald Tsang was able to achieve his goal of facing the general public during the election process, whereas 20% held the opposite view and 22% opted for "Half-half".
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CE Election Follow-up Survey: Commentary
On the three CE election follow-up surveys conducted in 1996, 2005 and 2007, Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our survey this year shows that half of the general population believes that Donald Tsang has achieved his goal of facing the general public during the election process, and more people are satisfied with this year's election than those in 1996 and 2005. However, probably because the CE is not returned by universal suffrage, people's satisfaction rate is only as high as 44%. As for people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong, our survey shows that Donald Tsang's success in the election has no effect on most people. This is very different from 2005, when Donald Tsang succeeded CH Tung as the Chief Executive. At that time, people's confidence suddenly surged. It does not happen this time, because people's confidence has already gone high."
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| CE Election March 15 Debate Follow-up Survey: Findings |
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On March 15, 2007, POP conducted an instant survey during the CE Election Debate. Later on, POP conducted follow-up polls with the public audiences of the Debate, asking for their opinions on the performance of the two candidates, the suitability ratings as CE of the two candidates as well as hypothetical voting. In-depth demographic analyses were also presented. The results were also compared with those of the Debate instant survey in order to analyze the difference between the public audience and the general public. Besides, POP also conducted interviews with 12 of those who were invited but didn't attend the Debate, asking for their reasons of absence and their opinions to this Debate.
It should be noted that POP at first announced that out of the 115 public audiences who had been randomly selected by POP for the Debate, 101 showed up while 14 was absent. But after the follow-up survey, 1 person who had been regarded as absent was found to be late and was led to the venue with the help of non-POP staff. Therefore, POP would like to clarify that out of the 115 selected audiences, 102 turned up at last while 13 was absent.
Herewith the contact information for the follow-up survey on 3.15 CE Election Debate, together with the contact information of the CE election instant poll: |
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| Date of survey |
Overall sample size |
Response rate |
Sampling error of percentages* |
| Instant Survey 15/3/2007 |
520 |
68.4% |
+/-2.2% |
| Audience Follow-up Survey 16-21/3/2007 |
88 (present) |
86.3% |
+/-3% |
| Audience Follow-up Survey 16-21/3/2007 |
12 (absent) |
92.3% |
+/-5% |
* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.
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| Date of survey |
15/3/2007 |
16-21/3/2007 |
| Sample size |
520 |
88 |
| Overall response rate |
68.4% |
86.3% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-2% |
+/-3% |
| Finding for each question/Sampling error** |
Finding |
Finding |
Sampling error |
| Rating of Donald Tsang |
-- |
70.4 |
+/- 3.4 |
| Rating of Alan Leong |
-- |
56.8 |
+/- 3.8 |
| Vote of confidence in Donald Tsang |
68% |
64% |
+/-4% |
| Vote of confidence in Alan Leong |
23% |
32% |
+/-4% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
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| Date of survey |
15/3/07 |
16-21/3/07 |
| Sample size |
520 |
88 |
| Overall response rate |
68.4% |
86.3% |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-2% |
+/-3% |
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Frequency |
Percentage |
Frequency |
Percentage |
| Which one do you think performed better in the Debate? |
| Donald Tsang |
200 |
39% |
25 |
28% |
| Alan Leong |
202 |
39% |
50 |
57% |
| Don't know/hard to say |
112 |
22% |
13 |
15% |
| Total |
514 |
100% |
88 |
100% |
| Has the Debate affected your support for Donald Tsang? |
| Support for Donald Tsang increased |
-- |
-- |
12 |
14% |
| Support for Donald Tsang reduced |
-- |
-- |
9 |
10% |
| No change |
-- |
-- |
65 |
74% |
| Don't know/hard to say |
-- |
-- |
2 |
2% |
| Total |
-- |
-- |
88 |
100% |
| Has the Debate affected your support for Alan Leong? |
| Support for Alan Leong increased |
-- |
-- |
32 |
36% |
| Support for Alan Leong reduced |
-- |
-- |
4 |
5% |
| No change |
-- |
-- |
47 |
53% |
| Don't know/hard to say |
-- |
-- |
5 |
6% |
| Total |
-- |
-- |
88 |
100% |
1/3/07: Before this Debate, which one did you prefer?
16-21/3/07: Before attending the Debate, which one were you inclined to support? |
| Donald Tsang |
340 |
69% |
57 |
66% |
| Alan Leong |
102 |
21% |
19 |
22% |
| Blank vote/abstention/neither of them |
50 |
10% |
-- |
-- |
| Both of them |
-- |
-- |
8 |
9% |
| Neither of them |
-- |
-- |
2 |
2% |
| Total |
492 |
100% |
86 |
100% |
| Do you find the arrangement of the debate fair to the two candidates? |
| Fair |
-- |
-- |
82 |
93% |
| Half -half |
-- |
-- |
4 |
5% |
| Unfair |
-- |
-- |
2 |
2% |
| Total |
-- |
-- |
88 |
100% |
| Are you satisfied with the arrangement of the Debate? |
| Satisfied |
-- |
-- |
75 |
85% |
| Half-half |
-- |
-- |
11 |
13% |
| Dissatisfied |
-- |
-- |
2 |
2% |
| Total |
-- |
-- |
88 |
100% |
* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
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Results showed that the 88 participants rated Tsang with 70.4 marks in term of suitability rating and 64% supported Tsang to be the next CE. Alan Leong attained 56.8 marks with 32% supporting him to be the next CE. 28% of them thought Tsang had performed better in the Debate while 57% said Leong had done better. After the Debate, 14% expressed an increment in their support for Tsang while 36% said their support for Leong increased. Besides, 66% said they were inclined to support Tsang before attending the Debate and 22% supported Leong. Lastly, 93% found the arrangement of the Debate fair to the two candidates and 85% were satisfied with the arrangement of the Debate.
CE Election follow-up survey not only asked the invited the above questions, but also requested them to express opinion on the arrangement of the whole debate and 46* have expressed their views. 32* of them mentioned that arrangement of floor questions, hoping that more audiences could have a chance to ask questions.
*The number of people who have expressed their opinion should be 47, while 33 of them memtioned the arrangement of floor questions.
As for the 12 absentees, the follow-up survey illustrated that 4 did not turn up because they needed to work while 3 expressed that their absence was due to some personal stuff. 1 was out of town and the remaining 4 had different reasons. Among these absentees, 1 thought the free shuttle bus service had been scheduled too early, 1 thought the 50-dollar transportation allowance was not adequate while the remaining held no negative feeling towards the arrangement.
CE Election March 15 Debate Follow-up Survey: Commentary
On the results of the March 15 debate follow-up survey, Robert Chung observed, "Compared to the result of our instant survey of the general audience during the debate, our findings show that most of those who were actually there in the studio watching the debate consider Alan Leong to have performed better than Donald Tsang. The ratio is 57% versus 28%, which is very different from the 39% versus 39% registered in the instant poll of the general audience. However, in terms of the studio audience's support of the two candidates before and after the debate, there is not much difference. The figures are almost the same as those of the general audience. In other words, although Leong is the clear winner in the debate according to the studio audience, Tsang is still considered to be the best candidate for CE. According to our follow-up survey, most studio audience are satisfied with its general arrangement of the debate, and consider it to be fair."
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News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be April 10, 2007, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest popularity figures of people's satisfaction with Legco members in general, the PLA Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force will be released.
It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
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| Background Information | CE Election Follow-up
Survey
| CE Election March 15 Debate Follow-up Survey | News about POP |
| Detailed Findings (Follow-up
Poll of the Chief Executive Election 2007
| Follow-up
Poll of the Chief Executive Election Forum 2007)
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