HKU POP SITE releases the first set of CE Election rolling poll wrap-up figuresBack

Press Release on March 21, 2007

Special Announcement

Starting today, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will continually release findings and analyses of different CE Election polls. The latest figures of rolling polls will be used by the sponsors first and then later uploaded onto the 「HKU POP SITE」 (http://hkupop.pori.hk) for public consumption. Organizations wishing to sponsor these polls can contact Miss Pang at 2859-2988.

Background

In 1996, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong conducted many rounds of surveys on the Chief Executive election, most of which were conducted after Tung Chee-hwa formally announced his intention to stand for the election. During the 2005 CE by-election, because a number of well-known political figures had declared their intention to stand, POP therefore also started our CE election polling routine. Between the end of January and early February this year, both Alan Leong and Donald Tsang embarked on their CE election campaigns, POP therefore switched on our CE election series accordingly. In our three rounds of feature survey, respondents were asked to rate the suitability of Leong and Tsang, as well as to vote hypothetically. The results have already been released long ago.
POP's CE Election rolling poll began on February 26 with similar questions, whereby respondents were asked to rate the suitability of the two candidates and to vote hypothetically. The first batch of focus analyses was released on March 9. Today, a new set of figures and charts is uploaded onto the POP Site. This press release reprints some of those charts for focus analyses.

On March 1, POP conducted an instant poll during the CE election forum. After releasing the findings to the sponsors instantly, POP then uploaded all findings onto the POP Site on March 14. Then on March 15, the media hosted a CE election debate, POP conducted an instant poll again, with part of its cost covered by sponsorship from Cable TV, Hong Kong Broadband Network, South China Morning Post and Wen Wai Po. POP hereby acknowledges all sponsors' support with thanks, and after fulfilling all the requirements spelled out in the sponsorship agreement, POP today uploads all figures and charts onto the POP Site. This press release reprints some of the charts for focus analyses.

Readers who would like to examine the figures in detail, or to study the effects of various demographic variables can check them out at our POP Site.

Charts

(1) Performance of the two candidates on March 15 Chief Executive Election debate according to 5-minute segments is as follows:

(2) Evaluation of candidates' performance on March 15 Chief Executive Election debate by respondents with different education attainment according to 15-minute segments is as follows:

(3) Evaluation of candidates' performance on March 15 Chief Executive Election debate by respondents with different political inclinations according to 30-minute segments is as follows:

(4) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 18, changes of the hypothetical voting on Donald Tsang per 2 days with respective to respondents' different political inclinations are as follows:

(5) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 18, changes of the hypothetical voting on Donald Tsang per 2 days with respective to respondents' different educational attainment are as follows:

(6) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 18, changes of the hypothetical voting on Alan Leong per 2 days with respective to respondents' different political inclinations are as follows:

(7) Across the rolling polls from February 26 to March 18, changes of the hypothetical voting on Alan Leong per 2 days with respective to respondents' different education attainment are as follows:

Concluding Remarks

POP does not intend to provide any commentary as the figures carried in this press release, because they should be self-explanatory. In this press release, we have especially indicated the extent of support for each candidate with respect to the education level and political inclination of the respondents, because we find them worth-noting after analyzing all figures. The general public is welcome to analyze the effects of other demographic variables by going to our POP Site directly. It is our general practice to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting tomorrow, POP will release our rolling poll findings on a daily tracking basis, but please note that the most updated figures will be used and released by the sponsors first, before they are uploaded onto the POP site some days later.