2007年第二次特首選舉論壇即時民意 Second Survey on Chief Executive Election Forum Instant Poll 2007Back

由香港大學民意研究計劃在2007年3月1日獨立進行的「第一次特首選舉論壇即時民意調查」，部份經費由香港有線電視、南華早報、信報及文匯報聯合贊助，特此鳴謝。根據贊助協議，調查數據首先由贊助機構使用，及後再在本網站公開，作為民研計劃的一項社會服務。各界人士在轉載或引用有關數據時，懇請註明出處。

Conducted independently by the Public Opinion Programme at the University of Hong Kong on March 1, 2007, the 「First Survey on Chief Executive Election Forum Instant Poll」 was partly co-sponsored by Cable TV, South China Morning Post, Hong Kong Economic Journal and Wen Wai Po. POP hereby acknowledges their support with thanks. According to our sponsorship agreement, the findings of the instant poll would be used by the sponsors first, and then published at this website some times later as part of POP's public service. Users of these findings are requested to cite the source appropriately when re-printing or quoting these figures.

| 頻數表 Frequency Tables: Q1– 候選人表現 Candidates' performance ; Q2 – 候選人支持率 Support for candidates |
| Q3– 論壇前候選支持率 Support for candidates before forum ; Q4 – 被訪者政治取向 Political alignment of respondents |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses |

調查日期 Date of survey : 15/3/2007

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	200	38.9
梁家傑 Alan Leong	202	39.3
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	112	21.8
合計 Total	514	100.0
缺數 Missing	6

[Q2] 如果聽日俾你投票選特首，你會選邊個？
[Q2] If you were to vote for the Chief Executive tomorrow, which one would you choose?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	337	68.4
梁家傑 Alan Leong	114	23.1
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote／abstention／neither of them	42	8.5
合計 Total	493	100.0
缺數 Missing	27

[Q3] 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢?
[Q3] Before this forum, which one did you prefer?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	340	69.1
梁家傑 Alan Leong	102	20.7
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote／abstention／neither of them	50	10.2
合計 Total	492	100.0
缺數 Missing	28

[Q4] 你認為自己既政治取向，係傾向認同邊一個派別呢?
[Q4] Which of the following political camps are you more inclined to align with?

	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
民主派 Pro-democracy	124	23.9
親中派 Pro-China	23	4.4
中間派 Pro-China	184	35.5
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	170	32.8
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	17	3.3
合計 Total	518	100.0
缺數 Missing	2

深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	520	200	38.9%	202	39.3%	112	21.8%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	124	31	25.2%	77	62.6%	15	12.2%
親中派 pro-China camp	23	10	45.5%	6	27.3%	6	27.3%
中間派 Moderate camp	184	73	40.3%	74	40.9%	34	18.8%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	170	77	45.3%	43	25.3%	50	29.4%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	17	9	52.9%	1	5.9%	7	41.2%
性別 Gender
男 Male	248	93	38.1%	103	42.2%	48	19.7%
女 Female	272	107	39.6%	99	36.7%	64	23.7%
年齡 Age
18-29	90	30	33.3%	44	48.9%	16	17.8%
30-49	204	78	38.4%	91	44.8%	34	16.7%
50或以上 50 or above	222	92	42.2%	66	30.3%	60	27.5%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	92	40	43.5%	21	22.8%	31	33.7%
中學 Secondary	272	114	42.5%	100	37.3%	54	20.1%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	151	46	30.7%	80	53.3%	24	16.0%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	118	36	30.8%	63	53.8%	18	15.4%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	101	38	38.0%	37	37.0%	25	25.0%
勞動工人 Production workers	58	20	34.5%	24	41.4%	14	24.1%
學生 Students	34	12	35.3%	17	50.0%	5	14.7%
全職主婦 Housewives	91	41	45.1%	32	35.2%	18	19.8%
其他 Others	108	52	50.0%	23	22.1%	29	27.9%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	208	79	38.2%	81	39.1%	47	22.7%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	286	114	40.4%	110	39.0%	58	20.6%

[Q2] 如果聽日俾你投票選特首，你會選邊個？
[Q2] If you were to vote for the Chief Executive tomorrow, which one would you choose?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	520	337	68.4%	114	23.1%	42	8.5%
Q1. 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好? At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	200	183	92.4%	7	3.5%	8	4.0%
梁家傑 Alan Leong	202	83	43.0%	93	48.2%	17	8.8%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	112	66	68.0%	14	14.4%	17	17.5%
Q3. 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢? Before this forum, which one did you prefer?
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang	340	312	93.7%	10	3.0%	11	3.3%
梁家傑 Alan Leong	102	8	8.2%	85	86.7%	5	5.1%
空白票／棄權／兩個都唔選 Blank vote/abstention/neither of them	50	9	20.0%	15	33.3%	21	46.7%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	124	56	48.3%	51	44.0%	9	7.8%
親中派 pro-China camp	23	18	85.7%	3	14.3%
中間派 Moderate camp	184	125	69.1%	39	21.5%	17	9.4%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	170	125	77.6%	21	13.0%	15	9.3%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	17	13	92.9%	0	0.0%	1	7.1%
性別 Gender
男 Male	248	157	66.2%	64	27.0%	16	6.8%
女 Female	272	180	70.3%	50	19.5%	26	10.2%
年齡 Age
18-29	90	56	64.4%	25	28.7%	6	6.9%
30-49	204	133	67.9%	49	25.0%	14	7.1%
50或以上 50 or above	222	147	70.7%	40	19.2%	21	10.1%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	92	60	76.9%	12	15.4%	6	7.7%
中學 Secondary	272	183	69.1%	60	22.6%	22	8.3%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	151	92	62.6%	42	28.6%	13	8.8%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	118	73	64.0%	36	31.6%	5	4.4%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	101	74	74.7%	20	20.2%	5	5.1%
勞動工人 Production workers	58	32	59.3%	16	29.6%	6	11.1%
學生 Students	34	18	52.9%	11	32.4%	5	14.7%
全職主婦 Housewives	91	63	72.4%	17	19.5%	7	8.0%
其他 Others	108	73	74.5%	13	13.3%	12	12.2%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	208	138	69.0%	48	24.0%	14	7.0%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	286	187	68.2%	63	23.0%	24	8.8%

[Q3] 係呢個論壇之前，你傾向選邊個呢?
[Q3] Before this forum, which one did you prefer?

		曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen		梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit		唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say
	樣本人數 Total Sample	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage	頻數 Frequency	百份比 Percentage
有被訪者 All respondents	520	340	69.1%	102	20.7%	50	10.2%
政治取向 Political inclination
民主派 pro-democracy camp	124	55	46.2%	54	45.4%	10	8.4%
親中派 pro-China camp	23	21	95.5%	1	4.5%
中間派 Moderate camp	184	126	70.4%	33	18.4%	20	11.2%
冇政治傾向/唔屬於任何派別 No preference	170	127	79.4%	14	8.8%	19	11.9%
唔知/難講 Don't know/hard to say	17	11	100.0%	0	0.0%	0	0.0%
性別 Gender
男 Male	248	158	67.2%	55	23.4%	22	9.4%
女 Female	272	182	70.8%	47	18.3%	28	10.9%
年齡 Age
18-29	90	59	67.8%	23	26.4%	5	5.7%
30-49	204	136	70.1%	42	21.6%	16	8.2%
50或以上 50 or above	222	144	68.9%	36	17.2%	29	13.9%
教育程度 Education attainment
小學或以下 Primary or below	92	60	73.2%	12	14.6%	10	12.2%
中學 Secondary	272	186	71.5%	50	19.2%	24	9.2%
大專或以上 Tertiary or above	151	92	63.0%	40	27.4%	14	9.6%
職業 Occupation
行政及專業人員 Executives and professionals	118	70	63.1%	28	25.2%	13	11.7%
文職及服務人員 Clerical and service workers	101	73	73.7%	18	18.2%	8	8.1%
勞動工人 Production workers	58	35	63.6%	15	27.3%	5	9.1%
學生 Students	34	19	59.4%	12	37.5%	1	3.1%
全職主婦 Housewives	91	62	71.3%	15	17.2%	10	11.5%
其他 Others	108	77	77.0%	11	11.0%	12	12.0%
家庭所屬階級 Family class
自稱中層或中上層 Claimed to be middle or upper-middle levels	208	137	69.9%	42	21.4%	17	8.7%
自稱基層或中下層 Claimed to be lower-middle or grassroot levels	286	191	69.5%	55	20.0%	29	10.5%

深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses

　

深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses

[Q1] 你認為邊位候選人係論壇上表現比較好?
[Q1] At the forum, which candidate do you think has performed better?

每5分鐘 Per 5 minutes

時段 Time	20:05 - 20:10	20:10 - 20:15	20:15 - 20:20	20:20 - 20:25	20:25 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:35	20:35 - 20:40	20:40 - 20:45	20:45 - 20:50	20:50 - 20:55	20:55 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:05	21:05 - 21:10	21:10 - 21:15	21:15 - 21:20	21:20 - 21:25	21:25 - 21:30	21:30 - 21:35	21:35 - 21:40	21:40 - 21:45	21:45 - 21:50	21:50 - 21:55	21:55 - 22:00	22:00 - 22:05	22:05 - 22:10	22:10 - 22:15
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	0.0%	31.6%	23.5%	38.9%	29.4%	55.0%	38.5%	30.8%	50.0%	52.0%	50.0%	28.6%	15.4%	42.1%	42.9%	34.8%	50.0%	16.0%	36.8%	33.3%	50.0%	26.3%	47.4%	38.1%	71.4%	50.0%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	50.0%	21.1%	47.1%	33.3%	41.2%	30.0%	46.2%	50.0%	33.3%	28.0%	35.0%	57.1%	53.8%	52.6%	35.7%	47.8%	11.1%	56.0%	31.6%	45.8%	45.0%	36.8%	42.1%	33.3%	19.0%	50.0%

每10分鐘 Per 10 minutes

時段 Time	20:00 - 20:10	20:10 - 20:20	20:20 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:40	20:40 - 20:50	20:50 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:10	21:10 - 21:20	21:20 - 21:30	21:30 - 21:40	21:40 - 21:50	21:50 - 22:00	22:00 - 22:10	22:10 - 22:20
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	0.0%	27.8%	34.3%	45.7%	40.0%	51.1%	24.4%	42.6%	41.5%	25.0%	40.9%	36.8%	54.8%	50.0%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	50.0%	33.3%	37.1%	39.1%	42.0%	31.1%	56.1%	42.6%	31.7%	45.5%	45.5%	39.5%	26.2%	50.0%

每15分鐘 Per 15 minutes

時段 Time	20:00 - 20:15	20:15 - 20:30	20:30 - 20:45	20:45 - 21:00	21:00 - 21:15	21:15 - 21:30	21:30 - 21:45	21:45 - 22:00	21:00 - 21:15
曾蔭權 Donald Tsang Yam-kuen	28.6%	30.8%	40.3%	50.7%	30.0%	41.4%	27.9%	41.4%	54.5%
梁家傑 Alan Leong Kah-kit	23.8%	40.4%	43.1%	31.9%	55.0%	32.9%	45.6%	41.4%	27.3%

深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 人口變項分析數表 Tables of demographic analyses | 人口變項分析圖表 Charts of demographic analyses |

| 深入分析 Further Analysis: 論壇時段分析數表 Tables of time segment analyses ; 論壇時段分析圖表 Charts of time segment analyses |