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* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
Figures on the latest popularity figures of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
1-6/6 |
1-4/8 |
3-6/10 |
Latest
Change(percentage)* |
| Total sample size |
1,033^ |
1,010^ |
1,022^ |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
60.8% |
56.0% |
61.3% |
-- |
| Sample base for each question/percentage of answer |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
Base |
% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
550 |
72% |
597 |
69% |
552 |
68% |
-1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee |
550 |
3% |
597 |
4% |
552 |
4% |
-- |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
607 |
48% |
543 |
55% |
539 |
51% |
-4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao |
607 |
22% |
543 |
19% |
539 |
20% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
606 |
53% |
573 |
51% |
549 |
47% |
-4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip |
606 |
6% |
573 |
8% |
549 |
10% |
+2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
546 |
45% |
589 |
48% |
563 |
44% |
-4% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow |
546 |
20% |
589 |
16% |
563 |
18% |
+2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
557 |
40% |
560 |
46% |
548 |
44% |
-2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue |
557 |
6% |
560 |
3% |
548 |
4% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
548 |
34% |
623 |
36% |
554 |
37% |
+1% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li |
548 |
32% |
623 |
32% |
554 |
33% |
+1% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
555 |
34% |
544 |
37% |
543 |
35% |
-2% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma |
555 |
21% |
544 |
21% |
543 |
23% |
+2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
550 |
35% |
516 |
31% |
560 |
31% |
-- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho |
550 |
28% |
516 |
31% |
560 |
29% |
-2% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong |
609 |
29% |
529 |
30% |
543 |
30% |
-- |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong |
609 |
21% |
529 |
23% |
543 |
15% |
-8% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
561 |
27% |
556 |
30% |
572 |
25% |
-5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen |
561 |
32% |
556 |
34% |
572 |
37% |
+3% |
| Vote of confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
552 |
25% |
535 |
29% |
519 |
24% |
-5% |
| Vote of no confidence in Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam |
552 |
30% |
535 |
25% |
519 |
29% |
+4% |
|
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* This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the survey period of popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
^ Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 62.9 marks, and 64% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 54.9, 56.7 and 64.2 marks, and 34%, 52% and 64% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the top approval rate fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 68%. Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung followed behind in the 2nd rank who attained 51%. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee, obtaining supporting rates of 47%, 44% and 44% respectively. Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang occupied the 6th to 7th places, achieving 37% and 35% accordingly. Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung ranked the 8th to 11th, as they gained 31%, 30%, 25% and 24% vote of confidence from the public respectively. In other words, only Ambrose Lee and Sarah Liao scored approval rates of over 50% among all Directors of Bureaux.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest survey, the popularity of CE Donald Tsang has not yet stabilized after it dropped in mid-September to record low since he became CE. Tsang's support rating is still dropping in early October, but his support rate has somewhat settled at 64%. Whether CE could reverse the trend or not will depend on his Policy Address. As for the principal officials, most changes in support rates are within statistical errors, and there is also very little change in their relative rankings. In terms of popularity benchmarks (please refer to the supplementary section of this release), Ambrose Lee can be labeled as 'ideal', Wong Yan-lung, Donald Tsang, Henry Tang and Sarah Liao can be labeled as 'successful', Denise Yue, Joseph Wong and Rafael Hui can be labeled as 'inconspicuous', while all others can be labeled as 'mediocre". No official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous".
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. Since CE Donald Tsang will announce his second Policy Address on October 11, Wednesday, we will release people's instant reactions towards the Policy Address the next day (October 12, Thursday) between 1pm to 2 pm. Then on October 17, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest figures of people's appraisal of local news media.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10,
2006.
Q: In HKUPOP's latest survey, judging from government officials' support rates alone, how can we describe the popularity of the CE and the principal officials using various benchmarks?
A: In our press releases of July 25, August 8 and 29, September 12 and 26, 2006, we discussed five benchmarks of popularity, namely, "ideal", "successful", "depressing", "disastrous" and "inconspicuous". We will not repeat the discussion here, but we will apply them to our latest survey findings. In early October, the support rate of Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee exceeds 66%, his performance can be labeled as "ideal". The support rates of SJ Wong Yan-lung, CE Donald Tsang, FS Henry Tang and Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao all exceed 50%, their performance can be labeled as "successful". The combined support and disapproval rates of Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue, Secretary for the Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong and CS Rafael Hui do not reach 50%, their performance can be labeled as "inconspicuous". The performance of all other officials range between "successful" and "depressing", they can be labeled as just "mediocre". They include Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma, Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho, Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen, and Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam. In early October, no official falls under the categories of "depressing" or "disastrous".
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