HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and the Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on January 10, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to preliminary figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2005. Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are first summarized as follows:

Date of survey	1-7/11/05	18-23/11/05	30/11-5/12/05	15-19/12/05	3-6/1/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,003	1,019	1,017	1,016	1,018	--
Overall response rate	64.6%	62.9%	62.5%	63.8%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.0	+/-1.2	+/-1.0	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	67.1	67.4	65.6	64.2	67.5	+3.3
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	75%	72%	68%	64%	69%	+5%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	8%	10%	11%	15%	10%	-5%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-7/9/05	3-6/10/05	1-7/11/05	30/11-5/12/05	3-6/1/06	Latest change *
Sample base	1,007	1,010	1,003	1,017	1,018	--
Overall response rate	62.0%	64.2%	64.6%	62.5%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/- 1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)**	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Ratings of CS Rafael Hui	58.5	57.8	60.2	57.9	58.2	+0.3
Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui	--	37%	--	39%	39%	--
Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui	--	6%	--	8%	10%	+2%
Ratings of FS Henry Tang	62.5	63.6	60.9	61.7	63.2	+1.5
Vote of confidence in Henry Tang	--	68%	--	61%	63%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang	--	7%	--	9%	9%	--
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	Survey not started yet		63.1	65.3	65.3	--
Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong			--	58%	60%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong			--	3%	1%	-2%
Ratings of Ex - SJ Elsie Leung	53.1	53.0	Resigned
Vote of confidence in Elsie Leung	--	33%
Vote of no confidence in Elsie Leung	--	31%

* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	1-7/9/05	3-6/10/05	1-7/11/05	30/11-5/12/05	3-6/1/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,007	1,010	1,003	1,017	491-536 *	--
Overall response rate	62.0%	64.2%	64.6%	62.5%	63.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/- 1.4	+/-1.6	+/-1.4	+/-1.6	+/-2.2	--
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	61.9	64.0	62.2	62.3	66.4	+4.1
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang	54.8	56.1	56.1	55.6	60.1	+4.5
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	58.4	60.6	59.2	58.9	58.8	-0.1
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	58.6	59.3	58.6	56.1	57.2	+1.1
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow	52.7	56.5	56.0	55.3	57.1	+1.8
Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong	51.5	52.9	53.1	51.9	54.7	+2.8
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	52.0	54.2	54.1	53.6	53.6	--
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	52.6	53.1	53.5	51.5	52.7	+1.2
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	51.0	51.4	51.3	49.6	51.8	+2.2
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	49.1	51.0	51.3	50.5	50.9	+0.4
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	47.1	48.2	49.1	46.8	46.9	+0.1

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.5 marks, and 69% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 58.2, 63.2 and 65.3 marks, and 39%, 63% and 60% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 66.4 marks. Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang Chun-wah followed behind in the 2nd rank, scoring 60.1 marks. The 3rd to 5th ranks go to Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan, Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, scoring 58.8, 57.2 and 57.1 marks respectively. Secretary for the Civil Service Joseph Wong Wing-ping, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung, Secretary for Housing, Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung and Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping occupied the 6th to 10th ranks, scoring 54.7, 53.6, 52.7, 51.8 and 50.9 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place, with popularity ratings of 46.9 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity of CE Donald Tsang rebounded quickly in early January, meaning that the burden of constitutional reform for him is gradually over. For the Secretaries of Departments, SJ Wong Yan-lung continues to score high, while CS Rafael Hui continues to lag behind, but still with a score of nearly 60. As for the Directors of Bureaux, Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee and Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology John Tsang registered a high jump in popularity, indicating people's general support for the performance of the Police Force during the WTO MC6 Meeting, as well as people's positive appraisal for Hong Kong's achievement in chairing the meeting."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be January 17, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest findings of the various subjective freedom indicators will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from the last regular press release, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is still "FAQs of Opinion Research".

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: "Support ratings" are expressed on a 0-100 scale, it shows how good or bad people feel about certain public figures or organizations. "Support rates" are expressed in terms of 0% - 100%, indicating the proportion of people supporting certain public figures or political groups. A person may have a mediocre support rating, but he may be considered by most people as the best person suited to a job, simply because there is no better people around. Likewise, a person may have an acceptable rating, but because he lacks leadership, nobody wants him to take up a certain job.

Q: Why is there no support rate for any Director of Bureau in this press release?
A: In order to avoid confusion, we have decided to release support ratings and support rates of the Directors of Bureaux in alternative months, but we will continue to release support ratings and support rates of the CE and the Secretaries of Departments in parallel.