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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-September showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 63.6 marks, and 63% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 42% were satisfied, whereas 11% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
25-29/7/05 |
25-29/10/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
19-21/6/06 |
14-20/9/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,014 |
1,017 |
1,010 |
1,012 |
1,013 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
64.0% |
63.5% |
59.4% |
58.2% |
58.4% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate** |
57% |
70% |
65% |
66% |
58% |
-8% |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate** |
11% |
6% |
9% |
8% |
11% |
+3% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate** |
41% |
50% |
51% |
51% |
49% |
-2% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate** |
20% |
15% |
17% |
17% |
17% |
-- |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate** |
44% |
50% |
54% |
55% |
46% |
-9% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate** |
17% |
15% |
13% |
15% |
17% |
+2% |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate** |
33% |
42% |
40% |
35% |
35% |
-- |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate** |
29% |
22% |
26% |
29% |
30% |
+1% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate** |
30% |
35% |
38% |
38% |
30% |
-8% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate** |
29% |
24% |
21% |
26% |
28% |
+2% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 58%. The government's performance in protecting human rights and freedom and maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 49% and 46% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 35% and 30% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Both in terms of support rating or support rate, CE Donald Tsang's popularity figures have dropped to a record low since he became CE. During our fieldwork period, Tsang has just spoken for the first time in support of GST (goods and services tax). He was later involved in the debate on whether the government has abandoned the "positive non-intervention policy". These could have significantly affected people's impression of the CE. From a macro point of view, CE's rating has gradually dropped more than 5 marks from the 68.9 marks registered in late April, while his support rate dropped almost 13 percentage points from the 75% registered in early June. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction with the SAR government on the whole has also dropped almost 13 percentage points since late April, and their satisfaction with the five specific policy areas have practically all dropped. Although the popularity of Tsang's government is still on the high side, there are signs that it is beginning to face image problems. Whether Tsang could answer people's political, economic and livelihood demands in his upcoming policy address would directly affect his and the government's future popularity."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 28, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest ratings of the top 10 political figures in Mainland China and Taiwan will be released. Then on October 3, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, we will release the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performances of the Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10,
2006.
Q: In describing the support rates of government officials, there are benchmarks like "ideal", "successful", "depressing", "disastrous" and "inconspicuous". Are there similar benchmarks for describing a government's popularity?
A: We discussed the concepts of these five benchmarks in our releases of July 25, August 8 and 29, and September 12, 2006, but they are related to the popularity figures of government officials, and they are all derived from our logic of converting support rate figures into actual votes. In mapping the popularity of a government, if we use questions like "Assuming there is a referendum tomorrow to decide whether the government should remain in power, how would you vote?", we may well come up with similar benchmarks. However, the wordings used by HKUPOP in gauging government popularity is "Are you satisfied with the overall performance of the government?" and we use a 5-point scale to register the answers. We manage to grasp people's feeling better using this question, but it makes it difficult to project whether a government should be removed. The five benchmarks we discussed become inapplicable. Nevertheless, we may boldly assume that if the popularity of our supreme leader remains to be "depressing", "disastrous" or "inconspicuous" for a long time, it will go unspoken that people wants the government to be removed.
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