HKU POP SITE releases the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal OfficialsBack

Press Release on September 12, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
1-7/9/06	1,007	57.5%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

As different questions involve different sub-samples, the sample errors will vary accordingly. The table below briefly shows the relationship between sampling errors and sample size for the readers to capture the corresponding changes:

Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）	Sample size (total sample or sub-sample)	Sampling error for percentages*（maximum value）
1,300	+/- 2.8 %	1,350	+/- 2.7 %
1,200	+/- 2.9 %	1,250	+/- 2.8 %
1,100	+/- 3.0 %	1,150	+/- 3.0 %
1,000	+/- 3.2 %	1,050	+/- 3.1 %
900	+/- 3.3 %	950	+/- 3.2 %
800	+/- 3.5 %	850	+/- 3.4 %
700	+/- 3.8 %	750	+/- 3.7 %
600	+/- 4.1 %	650	+/- 3.9 %
500	+/- 4.5 %	550	+/- 4.3 %
400	+/- 5.0 %	450	+/- 4.7 %

* Based on 95% confidence interval.

Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	4-7/7	14-21/7	1-4/8	21-23/8	1-7/9	Latest change
Sample base	1,015	1,006	1,010	1,019	1,007	--
Overall response rate	55.9%	57.1%	56.0%	57.7%	57.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.0	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Rating of CE Donald Tsang	65.8	65.4	66.2	65.2	64.3	-0.9
Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang	68%	66%	65%	64%	69%	+5%
Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang	13%	13%	13%	12%	11%	-1%

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of the three Secretaries of Departments under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-10/5	1-6/6	4-7/7	1-4/8	1-7/9	Latest change*
Sample base	1,019	1,033	1,015	1,010	1,007	--
Overall response rate	60.7%	60.8%	55.9%	56.0%	57.5%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.2	+/-1.4	+/-1.2	--
Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)**	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	+/-3%	--
Ratings of CS Rafael Hui	56.8	57.2	55.8	55.6	56.2	+0.6
Vote of confidence in Rafael Hui	35%	36%	37%	33%	36%	+3%
Vote of no confidence in Rafael Hui	11%	9%	11%	12%	9%	-3%
Ratings of FS Henry Tang	63.3	64.0	63.9	56.5	57.7	+1.2
Vote of confidence in Henry Tang	64%	64%	69%	50%	52%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Henry Tang	10%	9%	7%	18%	17%	-1%
Ratings of SJ Y.L. Wong	65.5	66.7	65.3	65.7	64.3	-1.4
Vote of confidence in Y.L.Wong	65%	62%	64%	63%	65%	+2%
Vote of no confidence in Y.L.Wong	4%	3%	3%	2%	2%	--

* The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals.
** "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Figures on the latest popularity ratings of Directors of Bureaux under the accountability system are summarized below:

Date of survey	4-10/5		4-7/7		1-7/9		Latest change**
Sample base	1,019*		1,015*		1,007*		--
Overall response rate	60.7%		55.9%		57.5%		--
Sample base for each question/rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	Base	Rating	--
Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee	509	63.3	753	64.4	571	63.0	-1.4
Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao	580	55.2	359	57.1	568	58.2	+1.1
Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue	526	58.2	501	59.1	568	57.6	-1.5
Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip	523	58.4	592	59.6	523	57.3	-2.3
Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow	553	55.5	445	56.7	581	56.2	-0.5
Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong	594	53.6	631	53.7	614	53.1	-0.6
Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma	587	52.6	417	52.7	519	51.4	-1.3
Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho	534	49.9	536	51.4	566	51.1	-0.3
Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li	461	51.2	611	51.2	570	50.7	-0.5
Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen	478	48.7	627	49.2	540	50.2	+1.0
Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam	533	47.8	516	45.8	530	48.3	+2.5

* Starting from 2006, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
** This series of questions was conducted once every two months, different from the frequency of hypothetical support ratings. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same cycle.

The latest survey showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 64.3 marks, and 69% supported him as the Chief Executive. Meanwhile, the corresponding ratings of CS Rafael Hui Si-yan, FS Henry Tang Ying-yen and SJ Wong Yan-lung were 56.2, 57.7 and 64.3 marks, and 36%, 52% and 65% would vote for their reappointment correspondingly. As for the Directors of Bureaux, results revealed that the 1st rank fell to Secretary for Security Ambrose Lee Siu-kwong, attaining 63.0 marks. Secretary for the Environment, Transport and Works Sarah Liao Sau-tung and Secretary for the Civil Service Denise Yue Chung-yee followed behind in the 2nd and 3rd ranks, scoring 58.2 and 57.6 marks respectively. The 4th to 7th ranks went to Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip Shu-kwan, Secretary for Health, Welfare and Food York Chow Yat-ngok, Secretary for Commerce, Industry and Technology Joseph Wong Wing-ping and Secretary for Financial Services and the Treasury Frederick Ma Si-hang, scoring 57.3, 56.2, 53.1 and 51.4 marks respectively. Secretary for Home Affairs Patrick Ho Chi-ping, Secretary for Education and Manpower Arthur Li Kwok-cheung and Secretary for Housing, Planning and Lands Michael Suen Ming-yeung occupied the 8th to 10th ranks, scoring 51.1, 50.7 and 50.2 marks in corresponding order. Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam Sui-lung occupied the 11th place, with a popularity rating of 48.3 marks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that the popularity of FS Henry Tang has recovered in early September, after its big plunge between July and August due to the debate on GST (goods and services tax). His popularity figures, however, are still way below those before the onset of the debate. As for CE Donald Tsang, his support rate has also increased by 5 percentage points as the debate settles down, but his support rating has also dropped slightly. His next test would, no doubt, be how he conducts himself when he delivers his next policy address. As for the ratings of Directors of Bureaux, compared to two months ago, there are both ups and downs, but other than the significant increase and decrease of Secretary for Constitutional Affairs Stephen Lam and Secretary for Economic Development and Labour Stephen Ip, there are not many changes. In terms of relative ranking, the only change is the swapping of positions between Stephen Ip's 2nd place last time, and Sarah Liao's 4th place last time. It should be noted that our polling cycles for CE Donald Tsang, Secretaries of Departments and Directors of Bureaux are all different, so comparisons should best be made after the figures are synchronized."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 19, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest results of people's opinions on Taiwan issues and their appraisal of past Chinese leaders will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".

FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10, 2006.

Q: Are there other benchmarks of popularity other than "ideal" and "successful", "depressing" and "disastrous"?
A: We discussed the concepts of these four benchmarks in our releases of July 25, August 8 and 29, 2006, so they are not repeated here. Today's discussion is how to benchmark some officials' performance if they are not known by the people over a long period of time, meaning that the summation of their popularity support and disapproval rates is lower than 50%, and none of the 4 benchmarks has ever been achieved. According to our reasoning regarding the conversion of support rate figures into real votes, in many constitutions, less than 50% turnout in a referendum would make it invalid. We therefore deduce that if the total proportion of an official's "abstention" or "don't know" rates exceeds 50% in an opinion survey, then whatever the distribution of his/her "support" versus "disapproval" rates, he/she is not seen to be a capable official.