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Recent popularity figures of Donald Tsang and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:
| Date of survey |
19-21/6 |
4-7/7 |
14-21/7 |
1-4/8 |
21-23/8 |
Latest Change |
| Sample base |
1,012 |
1,015 |
1,006 |
1,010 |
1,019 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
58.2% |
55.9% |
57.1% |
56.0% |
57.7% |
-- |
| Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
+/-1.2 |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% confidence level)* |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Rating of CE Donald Tsang |
66.3 |
65.8 |
65.4 |
66.2 |
65.2 |
-1.0 |
| Vote of confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
72% |
68% |
66% |
65% |
64% |
-1% |
| Vote of no confidence in CE Donald Tsang |
11% |
13% |
13% |
13% |
12% |
-1% |
| Considered Tsang was doing a good job as CE** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
62%^ |
-- |
| Considered Tsang was doing a bad job as CE** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
5%^ |
-- |
| Satisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
53%# |
-- |
| Dissatisfaction rate of Tsang's policy direction** |
-- |
-- |
-- |
-- |
8%# |
-- |
| Satisfaction rate of SARG performance** |
53% |
-- |
47% |
-- |
48% |
+1% |
| Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance** |
9% |
-- |
12% |
-- |
13% |
+1% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in early February and the positive and negative figures were 65% and 5% back then.
# The polling cycle for this item is different from the rest. The last survey was conducted in mid-February and the positive and negative figures were 51% and 8% back then.
Results of our latest survey revealed that the rating of CE Donald Tsang was 65.2 marks. Meanwhile, 64% of the respondents supported Tsang as the Chief Executive, whereas 12% did not. By using a 5-point scale, 62% of the respondents thought Tsang was doing a good job as the CE, as contrast to only 5% who held the opposite view. Moreover, 53% were satisfied with his policy direction, whereas 8% were dissatisfied. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, 48% were satisfied, whereas 13% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey shows that various opinion indicators of the Chief Executive and the SAR Government have not changed much. However, people's vote of confidence in Donald Tsang as CE continues to drop gradually. Compared to early June, it has dropped almost 12 percentage points from over 75% to 64%. Although still a high figure, it is nevertheless a record low since he took office. This is something worth thinking about."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be September 5, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures on subjective social and legal indicators will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10, 2006.
Q: What would be the negative counterparts for "ideal" and "successful" support rates?
A: We discussed the concepts of "ideal" and "successful" support rate in our releases of July 25 and August 8, 2006 respectively. We pointed out that if support rate figures can be converted into real votes, then support rates over 67% or two-thirds majority can be taken as "ideal", while support rates over 50% or simple majority can be taken as "successful". Conversely, disapproval rate over 50% and 67% can be considered respectively as "very bad" and "extremely bad" benchmarks of popularity. To contrast them with "ideal" and "successful" support rates, we may describe them as "disastrous" and "depressing". Of course, the factor of statistical coincidence, the meaning of "abstention", and the connections between "support ratings" and "support rates", are also important factors to be considered. We will discuss them here in future.
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