HKU POP SITE releases the latest ratings of the Top 10 Legislative CouncillorsBack

Press Release on August 1, 2006

Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest ratings of the top 10 Legislative Councillors. To facilitate better understanding of our "Top 10" series, since November 2005 we have included the following two pieces of supplementary information in our releases: (1) The ratings of Legislative Councillors dropped in the final stage of the rating exercise due to their relatively low recognition rates, provided that they still attain 50% recognition rate; (2) Overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over an extended period of time, which is set at past 12 calendar months for surveys on "Top 10 Legislative Councillors". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population at the end of 2005. Herewith the contact information for the latest surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages*
4-7/7/06 (First stage naming survey)	1,015	55.9%	+/- 3%
14-21/7/06 (Second stage rating survey)	1,006	57.1%	+/- 3%

* Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-July. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Rita Fan and Audrey Eu were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-July, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998. Recent ratings of top 10 Legislative Councillors are summarized below:

Date of survey	5-9/8/05	9-13/11/05	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	14-21/7/06	Latest change
Sample base	1,001	1,016	1,011	1,015	1,006	--
Overall response rate	61.0%	64.1%	61.0%	59.5%	57.1%	--
Sampling error of ratings (at 95% confidence level)*	+/-1.8	+/-1.8	+/-1.6	+/-1.6	+/-1.8	--
Rita Fan	63.7 [1]	65.1 [1]	62.0 [1]	65.4 [1]	62.6 [1]	-2.8
Audrey Eu	**	61.8 [2]	**	57.6 [2]	58.0 [2]	+0.4
Selina Chow	59.5 [2]	57.5 [3]	54.6 [2]	56.4 [3]	57.5 [3]	+1.1
James Tien	54.9 [3]	55.5 [4]	51.3 [4]	55.6 [4]	52.5 [4]	-3.1
Lee Cheuk-yan	53.6 [4]	54.5 [5]	52.3 [3]	54.3 [5]	52.4 [5]	-1.9
Jasper Tsang	47.7 [8]	49.7 [7]	48.9 [5]	50.9 [6]	48.3 [6]	-2.6
Martin Lee	48.6 [7]	51.0 [6]	46.6 [6]	48.2 [8]	44.6 [7]	-3.6
Emily Lau	49.1 [6]	48.9 [8]	43.3 [9]	48.2 [7]	43.7 [8]	-4.5
Albert Cheng	43.0 [9]	46.4 [9]	44.1 [8]	44.5 [9]	42.7 [9]	-1.8
Leung Kwok-hung	32.1 [10]	35.1 [10]	30.8 [10]	33.4 [10]	29.4 [10]	-4.0
Tam Yiu-chung	**	**	**	**	51.9	--
Lee Wing-tat	52.0 [5]	**	45.9 [7]	**	48.7	--

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.

The latest survey conducted in mid-July showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 62.6 marks. Audrey Eu followed behind with 58.0 marks. Selina Chow, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with 57.5, 52.5 and 52.4 marks correspondingly. Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee, Emily Lau and Albert Cheng ranked 6th to 9th, scoring 48.3, 44.6, 43.7 and 42.7 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 29.4 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 56.6 marks, while that for the top 10 was 49.2 marks. For this latest survey, Tam Yiu-chung and Lee Wing-tat obtained support ratings of 51.9 and 48.7 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	9-13/11/05	16-20/1/06	18-21/4/06	14-21/7/06	No. of times on top 10	Average rating*	Overall ranking**
Rita Fan	65.1	62.0	65.4	62.6	4	63.8	1
Selina Chow	57.5	54.6	56.4	57.5	4	56.5	2
James Tien	55.5	51.3	55.6	52.5	4	53.7	3
Lee Cheuk-yan	54.5	52.3	54.3	52.4	4	53.4	4
Jasper Tsang	49.7	48.9	50.9	48.3	4	49.5	5
Martin Lee	51.0	46.6	48.2	44.6	4	47.6	6
Emily Lau	48.9	43.3	48.2	43.7	4	46.0	7
Albert Cheng	46.4	44.1	44.5	42.7	4	44.4	8
Leung Kwok-hung	35.1	30.8	33.4	29.4	4	32.2	9
Audrey Eu	61.8	--	57.6	58.0	3	59.1	10
Lee Wing-tat	--	45.9	--	--	1	45.9	11

* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.

The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that nine Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 63.8 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd attaining 56.5 marks, James Tien and Lee Cheuk-yan who ranked 3rd and 4th with respective scores of 53.7 and 53.4 marks, Jasper Tsang, Martin Lee and Emily Lau at the 5th to 7th ranks, attaining 49.5, 47.6 and 46.0 marks correspondingly, Albert Cheng and Leung Kwok-hung ranking 8th and 9th with 44.4 and 32.2 marks respectively. Audrey Eu and Lee Wing-tat were listed for three times and one time correspondingly, they occupied the 10th and 11th ranks.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to three months ago, the popularity ratings of most Legco members in the Top 10 list have dropped. Other than Selina Chow and Audrey Eu, whose ratings went up against the current, the ratings of all other Legco members have dropped significantly. However, even for Chow and Eu, the upward change of their ratings were not statistically significant. Legco members who registered the biggest drops include Emily Lau, Leung Kwok-hung, Martin Lee and James Tien. In terms of relative rankings, however, the only change was that Martin Lee and Emily Lau swapped positions. Over the past year, Rita Fan has topped the list for all times, while the second place either went to Selina Chow or Audrey Eu, all of them being females representing different political forces. This itself indicates the diversity side of Hong Kong society. It should be noted, however, that this list of 'Top 10 Legislative Councillors' includes only those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear on the 'Top 10' list by design."

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 8, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: Why compile the overall ratings of Legco members in the past 4 surveys?
A: Starting from November 2005, when releasing the latest ratings of top 10 Legco members, we also release the overall ranking of these Lego members in the past 4 surveys, which roughly span over a year. Our purpose is to compile an indicator to show the mid-term popularity of the Legco members. Our overall rankings are determined first by ranking the number of times individual Legco members appear on our top 10 list in the last 4 surveys, and then rank them according to their average ratings in those surveys. Because these overall rankings are based on results obtained over an extended period of time, they are relatively more stable, but are less sensitive to recent changes. There are, therefore, pros and cons, but the overall rankings should still be useful indicators of popularity change.

Q: How can we define short-, mid- and long-term overall rankings?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of February 7, 2006.