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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Ratings with recognition rates not reaching top 10 in either stage of survey are not available.
[ ] Number in square brackets indicates rankings.
The latest survey conducted in mid-January showed that Rita Fan was the most popularly supported councillor attaining 62.0 marks. Selina Chow followed behind with 54.6 marks. Lee Cheuk-yan, James Tien and Jasper Tsang occupied the 3rd to 5th ranks, with 52.3, 51.3 and 48.9 marks correspondingly. Martin Lee, Lee Wing-tat, Albert Cheng and Emily Lau ranked 6th to 9th, scoring 46.6, 45.9, 44.1 and 43.3 marks respectively. The 10th rank fell to Leung Kwok-hung who scored 30.8 marks. The mean score obtained by the top 5 councillors was 53.9 marks, while that for the top 10 was 48.0 marks. The overall ratings ranked according to results obtained over the past 12 calendar months are tabulated as follows:
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* "Average rating" is the average of all ratings obtained by Legislative Councillors over the past 12 months.
** "Overall rankings" are first determined by their number of times on top 10, and then their average ratings.
The overall rankings in the past 12 months showed that nine Legislative Councillors have been on the list for four times. They are Rita Fan in the top rank achieving an average rating of 63.7 marks, Selina Chow ranking 2nd attaining 58.0 marks, Lee Cheuk-yan and James Tien who ranked 3rd and 4th with respective scores of 53.9 and 53.8 marks, Martin Lee, Jasper Tsang and Emily Lau at the 5th to 7th ranks, attaining 49.8, 48.6 and 48.0 marks correspondingly, Albert Cheng and Leung Kwok-hung ranking 8th and 9th with 44.8 and 33.4 marks respectively. Audrey Eu and Lee Wing-tat were both listed for two times, they occupied
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Compared to those registered in November last year, the popularity ratings of the best known Legco members have all dropped, probably due to the dispute over constitutional development. Emily Lau registered the biggest drop, followed by Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung and James Tien. However, the relative rankings of the Legco members have remained fairly stable. Rita Fan continues to top the list, and Audrey Eu and Lee Wing-tat continue to compete for the recognition threshold. Although Eu failed to reach that threshold this time, her overall ranking for the past 12 months is still higher than that of Lee. It should be noted that our 'Top 10 Legislative Councillors' includes only those who are best known to the public, ranked according to their support ratings. Some of the other 50 councillors may well have very high or low support ratings, but because they are not the most well-known councillors, they do not appear in our 'Top 10' list by design."
The research design of our "Top 10 Legislative Councillors" has been explained in detail under "Survey Method" in our corresponding web page. The top councillors listed in our latest survey were all those who obtained the highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in early-January (January 3-6). In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 10 legislators whom they knew best. Martin Lee, Leung Kwok-hung, Emily Lau, Selina Chow, and James Tien were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table for the rest of the list. Those 12 who were named most frequently then entered into the second stage rating survey. During the second stage rating survey conducted in mid-January, respondents were asked to rate each legislator in turn using a 0-100 scale. 0 indicates absolutely no support, 100 indicates absolute support, and 50 means half-half. After calculation, the bottom 2 legislators in terms of recognition rate were dropped; the remaining 10 were then ranked according to their support ratings attained to become the top 10 Legislative Councillors. For this latest survey, Audrey Eu and Ma Lik obtained support ratings of 57.4 and 48.8 marks respectively, but they were dropped due to their relatively low recognition rates. For easy reference, the POP Site has already displayed the results of all naming surveys conducted since the year 1998.
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 9, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and Principal Officials under the accountability system will be released. Then, on February 14, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the rating of Top Five Executive Councillors will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting this year, we have included a small educational section in our regular press release for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is still "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: How can we define short-, mid- and long-term overall rankings?
A: For our ranking of Legco members, short-term can be defined as findings from our latest survey, while mid-term can be defined as overall rankings over the year past. We have not yet compiled any long-term overall rankings, but they can be defined as overall rankings since the last Legco election. For very long-serving Legco members, it is more appropriate to use average ratings rather than overall rankings due to membership changes.
Q: Can we conduct a survey of "worst performing" Legco members?
A: Yes, we can and we will if needed. However, with our limited resources, we think it is more meaningful to find out the best performers. Besides, in defining "poor performance", we may need to quantify whether some councillors are poor because they fail to make themselves known, or poor because they are notorious. For the best performers, they must be good in both dimensions.
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