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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-July showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 65.4 marks, and 66% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 47% were satisfied, whereas 12% were dissatisfied.
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "The popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang continue to drop in mid-July, although the drop is slowed. Tsang's support rating is now around the level registered last December during the row on constitutional development, while his support rate is around the level registered in February this year before the government announced this year's Budget. As for people's satisfaction with the government, the figure has dropped back to the level registered last August. This shows that recent events like the July 1 Rally, revival of discussions on the pace of democracy sparked by Regina Ip and Anson Chan, and debates on the introduction of GST (goods and services tax), may have compressed the popularity of both the CE and the SAR government."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be August 1, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest rating of the top 10 legislative councilors will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our regular press releases a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, so that we can share our experience with the general public. The subject of our education section today is
"FAQs of Opinion Research".
FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: What is the difference between "support ratings" and "support rates"?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 10, 2006.
Q: Is there an "ideal" support rate?
A: We will tackle this question every now and then in this section in light of survey findings. The latest support rate of CE Donald Tsang is 66%, which is opportune moment to discuss this question. To start with, our CE is not returned by universal suffrage, so our idea of support rate differs from that in normal democratic societies. Brushing aside the connection between support rate in opinion polls and actual election results, and assuming that our support rate figures can be converted to vote shares, then two-thirds majority, or 67%, can be taken as the ultimate test for all constitutional requirements. The fact that CE Donald Tsang's support rate has just dropped behind that standard has a special meaning conceptually. Of course, whether this is just a statistical coincidence, the meaning of "abstention", and the connections between "support ratings" and "support rates", are also important factors to be considered. We will discuss them here in future.
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