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Recent popularity figures of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
17-21/10/05 |
15-19/12/05 |
9-14/2/06 |
18-21/4/06 |
13-15/6/06 |
Latest Change |
| Sample base |
1,009 |
1,016 |
1,012 |
1,015 |
1,018 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
65.6% |
63.8% |
61.0% |
59.5% |
63.1% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
-- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government** |
62% |
59% |
58% |
69% |
60% |
-9% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government** |
9% |
15% |
8% |
7% |
7% |
-- |
| Trust in Beijing Government** |
50% |
44% |
47% |
53% |
46% |
-7% |
| Distrust in Beijing Government** |
21% |
27% |
20% |
16% |
20% |
+4% |
| Confidence in HK's future |
74% |
79% |
76% |
80% |
77% |
-3% |
| No-confidence in HK's future |
17% |
13% |
17% |
13% |
17% |
+4% |
| Confidence in China's future |
84% |
80% |
83% |
86% |
86% |
-- |
| No-confidence in China's future |
10% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
9% |
+1% |
| Confidence in "one country, two systems" |
65% |
67% |
67% |
71% |
70% |
-1% |
| No-confidence in "one country, two systems" |
26% |
23% |
25% |
20% |
22% |
+2% |
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "According to our latest findings, people's confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future, and "one country, two systems" have not changed much over the past two months, all standing high at between 70% to 85% approximately. People's trust in the local and central governments, however, has significantly retreated from their record high, or almost record high, registered two months ago, to that of four months ago. The reasons are hard to tell, we may be able to say more next time when we know the latest popularity figures of the CE and the SAR Government. According to my previous analysis, when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be June 22, 2006, Thursday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest figures of people's opinions towards Taiwan issues and ethnic identity will be released. Then, on June 27, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the latest popularity figures of CE Donald Tsang and people's appraisal of the performance of the HKSAR Government will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at . We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from January 2006, we have included in our press release a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which is usually based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: When the proportion of positive answers to a tracking question drops, does it mean that the proportion of negative answers will rise?
A: Not necessarily, unless there is only one positive and one negative answer. If we are using a five-point scale, or any balanced scale with a mid-point, some of the positive or negative answers might have just turned neutral, instead of taking sides. We therefore need to be very careful when reading these findings.
Q: Why don't we use the same rating scale to measure the five indicators of trust and confidence?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of May 2,
2006.
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