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The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE"
(http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2005 year-end. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:
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Recent popularity figures of SAR and Central Governments, and people's confidence in the future are summarized below:
| Date of survey |
22-25/8/05 |
17-21/10/05 |
15-19/12/05 |
9-14/2/06 |
18-21/4/06 |
Latest Change |
| Sample base |
1,004 |
1,009 |
1,016 |
1,012 |
1,015 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
63.5% |
65.6% |
63.8% |
61.0% |
59.5% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
-- |
| Trust in HKSAR Government** |
57% |
62% |
59% |
58% |
69% |
+11% |
| Distrust in HKSAR Government** |
15% |
9% |
15% |
8% |
7% |
-1% |
| Trust in Beijing Government** |
46% |
50% |
44% |
47% |
53% |
+6% |
| Distrust in Beijing Government** |
26% |
21% |
27% |
20% |
16% |
-4% |
| Confidence in HK's future |
73% |
74% |
79% |
76% |
80% |
+4% |
| No-confidence in HK's future |
20% |
17% |
13% |
17% |
13% |
-4% |
| Confidence in China's future |
82% |
84% |
80% |
83% |
86% |
+3% |
| No-confidence in China's future |
11% |
10% |
12% |
11% |
8% |
-3% |
| Confidence in "one country, two systems" |
64% |
65% |
67% |
67% |
71% |
+4% |
| No-confidence in "one country, two systems" |
27% |
26% |
23% |
25% |
20% |
-5% |
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* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
Survey conducted in late April revealed that 69% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, and 53% trusted the Beijing Central Government. On the other hand, 80% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 86% had confidence in China's future, while 71% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".
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Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "All five indicators of trust and confidence have gone up over the past two months. People's trust in the local government has climbed 11 percentage points to reach record high after the handover, and it is now very near to the historical high registered six months before the handover. People's trust in the central government, on the other hand, has also climbed beyond 50%, which is record high since this series of survey started in 1992. Meanwhile, people's confidence in the future of China has also reached record high since this series started in 1997. All signs show that when the central government becomes more relaxed with Hong Kong's autonomy, it earns more trust from the people of Hong Kong."
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be May 9, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, when the latest rating of the top 10 legislative councillors will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting 2006, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is "FAQs of Opinion Research".
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: Why don't we use the same rating scale to measure the five indicators of trust and confidence?
A: HKUPOP's five indicator surveys of trust and confidence have different origins and literature references, thus different measurement scales. The three indicators on people's trust in governments use a five-point scale, while the three on confidence use a dichotomous scale. There are pros and cons for both scales, but the important point is that the absolute values obtained from different scales are conceptually different, although trend analyses should be equally valid. Generally speaking, figures obtained from dichotomous scales are higher than those collapsed from five-point scales, because they do not have midpoints.
Q: What is the difference between people's trust in governments and their appraisal of government performance?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 3, 2006.
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