|
* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies. For questions related to popularity of CE, no sample was collected on 21 February.
^ The polling cycle for different items varies. Parallel comparison across items should be synchronized.
The latest survey conducted in mid-March showed that, CE Donald Tsang scored 67.9 marks, and 72% supported him as the Chief Executive. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 50% were satisfied, whereas 11% were dissatisfied. Recent figures on people's appraisal of the specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:
| Date of survey |
24-25/1/05 |
18-21/4/05 |
25-29/7/05 |
25-29/10/05 |
13-17/3/06 |
Latest change |
| Sample base |
1,003 |
1,012 |
1,014 |
1,017 |
1,010 |
-- |
| Overall response rate |
65.0% |
66.7% |
64.0% |
63.5% |
59.4% |
-- |
| Sampling error of percentages (at 95% conf. level)* |
+/- 3% |
+/- 3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
+/-3% |
-- |
| Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate** |
41% |
49% |
57% |
70% |
65% |
-5% |
| Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate** |
27% |
20% |
11% |
6% |
9% |
+3% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate** |
24% |
36% |
44% |
50% |
54% |
+4% |
| Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate** |
43% |
26% |
17% |
15% |
13% |
-2% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate** |
34% |
42% |
41% |
50% |
51% |
+1% |
| Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate** |
34% |
25% |
20% |
15% |
17% |
+2% |
| Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate** |
23% |
33% |
33% |
42% |
40% |
-2% |
| Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate** |
45% |
34% |
29% |
22% |
26% |
+4% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate** |
18% |
25% |
30% |
35% |
38% |
+3% |
| Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate** |
51% |
37% |
29% |
24% |
21% |
-3% |
|
|
* 「95% confidence level」 means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
# These questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.
Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a satisfaction percentage of 65%. The government's performance in maintaining economic prosperity and protecting human rights and freedom followed, attaining a satisfaction percentage of 54% and 51% correspondingly. Meanwhile, a respective of 40% and 38% of the respondents were satisfied with the government's performance in developing democracy as well as improving people's livelihood.
Commentary
Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「CE Donald Tsang's support rating has slightly increased, while his support rate is secured at 72%. That means all recent incidents, especially the KCRC management dispute, have not affected CE's popularity. However, in the mean time, people's satisfaction with the SARG's overall performance has dropped, back to the level registered before the government changed its West Kowloon development plan and the FS delivered his Budget Speech. This indicates the most recent events have certain impact on the SARG's popularity. As with those 5 specific policy areas, maintaining economic prosperity has gained a significant increase when comparing with that of five months ago. Although the satisfaction rate with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government has dropped from its record high this time, it remains to be the best-performing area.」
News about POP
POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be March 28, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2pm, when the latest figures of people's satisfaction with the performances of the Legislative Council members in general, the People's Liberation Army Hong Kong garrison and the Hong Kong Police Force will be released.
Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of
the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we
will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up
purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>.
We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most
welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not
represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu
Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith,
except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.
Starting from the last regular press release, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is 「FAQs of Opinion Research」.
Some FAQs of Opinion Research
Q: How does POP set the 5 specific policy items of the HKSAR government as the directions of investigation?
A: Around the handover of Hong Kong, many experts and citizens became highly concerned with the long-term development of Hong Kong in four aspects, namely democracy, freedom, prosperity and stability. HKUPOP therefore started a number of tracking survey series, including social indicator surveys and surveys on the performance of the SAR government. The former series comprises 12 indicators, with "democracy", "freedom", "prosperity" and "stability" being the core indicators. These are matched by four aspects of SAR government's performance, namely, "developing democracy", "protecting human rights and freedom", "maintaining economic prosperity", and "improving people's livelihood", while the fifth aspect of "handling of its relation with the Central Government" is also added to measure the performance of the government in external affairs.
Q: When interpreting findings, should we focus more on positive or negative figures?
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of February 16,
2006.
|
