HKU POP SITE releases the latest figures on the popularity of SAR and Centra Governments, and people's confidence in the futureBack


Press Release on February 16, 2006
 

| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | Some FAQs of Opinion Research |

 
Latest Figures

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong today releases on schedule via the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR and Beijing Central Governments, their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to preliminary figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2005. Recent figures are summarized below:

 
  Date of survey  20-23/6/05   22-25/8/05   17-21/10/05   15-19/12/05   9-14/2/06   Latest Change 
  Sample base  1,026   1,004   1,009   1,016   1,012   -- 
  Overall response rate  61.9%   63.5%   65.6%   63.8%   61.0%   -- 
  Sampling error of percentages(at 95% confidence level)*  +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   +/- 3%   -- 
  Trust in HKSAR Government**  56%   57%   62%   59%   58%   -1% 
  Distrust in HKSAR Government**  13%   15%   9%   15%   8%   -7% 
  Trust in Beijing Government**  48%   46%   50%   44%   47%   +3% 
  Distrust in Beijing Government**  22%   26%   21%   27%   20%   -7% 
  Confidence in HK's future  77%   73%   74%   79%   76%   -3% 
  No-confidence in HK's future  11%   20%   17%   13%   17%   +4% 
  Confidence in China's future  78%   82%   84%   80%   83%   +3% 
  No-confidence in China's future  11%   11%   10%   12%   11%   -1% 
  Confidence in "one country, two systems"  59%   64%   65%   67%   67%   -- 
  No-confidence in "one country, two systems"  24%   27%   26%   23%   25%   +2% 

* "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
** Collapsed from a 5-point scale.

Survey conducted in mid-February revealed that 58% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, and 47% trusted the Beijing Central Government. On the other hand, 76% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 83% had confidence in China's future, while 67% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems". 


Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, 「The positive figures of the five indicators of trust and confidence have not changed much in the past three months. However, people's negative distrust in the local and central governments has significantly receded, while their confidence in "one country, two systems" has remained at record high since October 1998. Record shows that people's distrust in the local government reached a record high of over 45% around the middle of 2003, and then subsided gradually to the current rather insignificant level of 8%, which is record low since September 1997. Nevertheless, the government should not be complacent because people's trust in the local government is still lower than that registered before the handover.」

News about POP

POP's normal practice is to release the results of our regular surveys every Tuesday afternoon via our POP Site, except during public holidays, each time with a forecast of the items to be released in the next 7 days. According to schedule, our next release of regular survey findings will be February 21, 2006, Tuesday, between 1pm to 2 pm, the rating of the top 10 political groups will be released.

Our general practice is to answer all questions on the research design of the surveys published in the POP Site as soon as we receive them, but we will not further comment on the findings. We welcome questions for follow-up purpose, please email them to us at <[email protected]>. We will keep such an arrangement under constant review, suggestions most welcome. Please note that everything carried in the POP Site does not represent the stand of the University of Hong Kong. Dr Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, is responsible for everything posted herewith, except for column articles which represent the stand of their authors.

Starting this year, we have included a small educational section for the purpose of general civic education, the content of which was based on previous questions and comments we have received from the public. The subject of our education section today is still "FAQs of Opinion Research".

Some FAQs of Opinion Research

Q: When interpreting findings, should we focus more on the positive or negative figures?
A: Today's release provides a very good example. If we look at the positive figures, things seem to have remained unchanged, but if we look at the negative figures, some of them have actually dropped to almost record low. Obviously, there was a shift of opinion from the negative end to the middle position. In describing the findings, our general practice is to describe the majority view first, be it positive and negative, and then address the other findings. If the majority view comprises 60% to 70% of the population, shifts in the other end would be of minor importance
.
Q: What is the difference between people's trust in governments and their appraisal of government performance? 
A: Please refer to the answer given in our press release of January 3, 2006.



| Latest Figures | Commentary | News about POP | Some FAQs of Opinion Research |