HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

Press Release on March 25, 2014

Special Announcements

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong today released for public examination via the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) the raw data of all 43 regular rating surveys of CE CY Leung, along with related demographics of respondents. This degree of transparency has surpassed normal academic and professional standards, and should be treasured. Users can process the data using SPSS, which should be freely accessible by all university staff and students from their own university. Ordinary users can choose to use a variety of freeware to run their own analysis. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

“Voices from the Hall – Whether Citizens Should Support Civil Nomination” jointly conducted by POP and RTHK was finished on March 16. The result and raw data of the event have been uploaded onto the “HKU POP Site” as well. For details, please read the feature page of the event (http://hkupop.pori.hk/chinese/features/rthkdf20140316/index.html).

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,023 Hong Kong people between 17 and 20 March 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that all government trust and confidence indicators have remained stable. People’s latest net trust in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 12, 0 and negative 19 percentage points respectively, almost the same as those 3 months ago. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China has stayed high, with a net confidence of positive 40 percentage points, while people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’ now stand at positive 12 and positive 3 percentage points. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,023 successful interviews, not 1,023 x 67.8% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people’s trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong’s future, China’s future and “one country, two systems”. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-20/3/2014	1,023	67.8%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighting” data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -2% to +1% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan Governments and people’s confidence in the future as well as “one country, two systems” are summarized below:

Date of survey	19-21/3/13	10-13/6/13	15-17/9/13	9-12/12/13	17-20/3/2014	Latest change
Total sample size^[8]	1,018	1,055	1,007	1,015	1,023
Overall response rate	67.3%	67.9%	65.3%	68.0%	67.8%
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error^[9]
Trust in HKSAR Government^[10]	44%	32%^[11]	44%^[11]	44%	45+/-4%	+1%
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[10]	26%	37%^[11]	31%^[11]	35%	32+/-4%	-3%
Net trust	18%	-5%^[11]	13%^[11]	9%	12+/-7%	+3%
Mean value^[10]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=642)	2.9+/-0.1^[11] (Base=649)	3.1+/-0.1^[11] (Base=631)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=551)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=565)	--
Trust in Beijing Government^[10]	37%	25%^[11]	35%^[11]	37%	36+/-4%	-1%
Distrust in Beijing Government^[10]	32%	45%^[11]	36%^[11]	38%	36+/-4%	-2%
Net trust	5%	-20%^[11]	-1%^[11]	-1%	0+/-7%	+1%
Mean value^[10]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=598)	2.6+/-0.1^[11] (Base=623)	2.9+/-0.1^[11] (Base=604)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=538)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=608)	--
Trust in Taiwan Government^[10]	21%	20%	22%	19%	17+/-3%	-2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[10]	23%^[11]	30%^[11]	34%	36%	35+/-4%	-1%
Net trust	-2%^[11]	-10%^[11]	-12%	-17%	-19+/-6%	-2%
Mean value^[10]	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=440)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=492)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=512)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=399)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=436)	--
Confidence in HK’s future	57%	50%^[11]	54%	50%	53+/-4%	+3%
No-confidence in HK’s future	32%	42%^[11]	40%	43%	41+/-4%	-2%
Net confidence	25%	8%^[11]	14%	7%	12+/-8%	+5%
Confidence in China’s future	68%	65%	68%	68%	67+/-4%	-1%
No-confidence in China’s future	21%	27%^[11]	25%	23%	27+/-4%	+4%
Net confidence	47%	38%^[11]	43%	45%	40+/-7%	-5%
Confidence in “one country, two systems”	56%	47%^[11]	55%^[11]	49%^[11]	48+/-4%	-1%
No-confidence in “one country, two systems”	35%	47%^[11]	40%^[11]	42%	45+/-4%	+3%
Net confidence	21%	0%	15%^[11]	7%	3+/-8%	-4%

[8] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 573 to 646, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-8% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[11] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 45% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 36% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 17% trusted the Taiwan Government. The net trust values are positive 12, 0 and negative 19 percentage points, while the mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 2.9 and 2.7 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general. On the other hand, 53% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong’s future, 67% had confidence in China’s future, while 48% of the respondents were confident in “one country, two systems”. The three net confidence values are positive 12, positive 40 and positive 3 percentage points.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey：17-20/3/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in HKSAR Government^[12]	Trust	24+/-8% (27)	42+/-7% (92)	57+/-6% (136)	45+/-4% (255)
	Half-half	26+/-8% (29)	23+/-6% (51)	18+/-5% (43)	22+/-3% (123)
	Distrust	50+/-9% (56)	34+/-6% (75)	23+/-5% (55)	33+/-4% (186)
	Don't know/ hard to say	0+/-0% (0)	1+/-1% (2)	2+/-2% (5)	1+/-1% (8)
	Total	100% (112)	100% (221)	100% (239)	100% (572)
	Mean value	2.6+/-0.2 (Base=112)	3.0+/-0.2 (Base=218)	3.4+/-0.2 (Base=234)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=564)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey：17-20/3/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in Beijing Central Government^[13]	Trust	14+/-6% (17)	34+/-6% (77)	48+/-6% (140)	36+/-4% (234)
	Half-half	22+/-7% (27)	27+/-6% (61)	16+/-4% (48)	21+/-3% (137)
	Distrust	62+/-9% (76)	35+/-6% (81)	27+/-5% (79)	36+/-4% (235)
	Don't know/ hard to say	3+/-3% (3)	4+/-2% (8)	9+/-3% (27)	6+/-2% (38)
	Total	100% (123)	100% (228)	100% (294)	100% (645)
	Mean value	2.2+/-0.2 (Base=120)	2.9+/-0.2 (Base=220)	3.3+/-0.2 (Base=267)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=606)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”, to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to “Opinion Daily” as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from December 9 to 12, 2013 while this survey was conducted from March 17 to 20, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/3/14	Premier Li Keqiang holds a press conference.
11/3/14	Communications Authority indicates that mobile TV services of the HKTV violates the Broadcasting Ordinance.
6/3/14	Zhang Dejiang mentions issue of Hong Kong universal suffrage at a group meeting with National People's Congress deputies from Hong Kong.
5/3/14	Premier Li Keqiang delivers his first Government Work Report in the National People's Congress.
3/3/14	The opening of the National People's Congress and the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.
28/2/14	Li Ka-shing expresses his opinion during the results’ press conference of Cheung Kong Holdings and Hutchison Whampoa.
26/2/14	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah releases the 2014-2015 Budget.
26/2/14	Former Ming Pao Chief Editor Kevin Lau Chun-to is attacked in Sai Wan Ho.
18/2/14	Government officials and the Hong Kong and Macao Affairs Office of the State Council condemn the anti-mainlanders demonstration in Tsim Sha Tsui.
15/1/14	The Chief Executive CY Leung delivers 2014 Policy Address.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey conducted in mid-March shows that all government trust and confidence indicators have remained stable. People’s latest net trust in the HKSAR, Central and Taiwan Governments now stand at positive 12, 0 and negative 19 percentage points respectively, almost the same as those 3 months ago. As for the confidence indicators, people’s confidence in the future of China has stayed high, with a net confidence of positive 40 percentage points, while people’s net confidence in the future of Hong Kong and ‘one country, two systems’ now stand at positive 12 and positive 3 percentage points. Further analysis shows the younger the respondent, the more one distrusts the HKSAR and Central Governments. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

March 27, 2014 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Budget second follow-up survey
April 1, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government