HKU POP releases the latest survey on Taiwan issuesBack

Press Release on March 18, 2014

Special Announcements

To facilitate academic study and rational discussion, on last Tuesday, the Public Opinion Programme (POP) of the University of Hong Kong has recently uploaded the raw data of the latest CE rating and related demographics onto the “HKU POP Site” (http://hkupop.pori.hk). This degree of transparency has surpassed normal academic and professional standards, and should be treasured. Users can process the data using SPSS, which should be freely accessible by all university staff and students from their own university. Ordinary users can choose to use a variety of freeware to run their own analysis. Please follow normal academic standards when using or citing such data.

The activity “Voices from the Hall: Whether citizens should support civil nomination” jointly organized by POP and RTHK was held on March 16. Opinion findings and raw data of the event have already been uploaded onto the “HKU POP Site”. For details, please read the feature page of the event (http://hkupop.pori.hk/chinese/features/rthkdf20140316/index.html)

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,008 Hong Kong people between 10 and 12 March, 2014 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that although Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, the support rate has slightly increased to about 30%, narrowing the net opposition rate to 29 percentage points which is a new low since October 1995. It should be noted that the percentage of those who support Taiwan rejoining the UN has dropped significantly to 44% compared to half a year ago, giving a net support of 9 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. The percentage of those who believed “one country, two systems” should or should not be applicable to Taiwan both stand at 42% to 43%, giving a net value of zero. Besides, people’s confidence in reunification across the strait has improved slightly compared to half a year ago, with net confidence at negative 12 percentage points. Further analysis shows that younger people are more supportive of Taiwan’s independence and more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,008 successful interviews, not 1,008 x 68.4% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.

[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%”. Because POP introduced “rim weighting” in 2014, during the transition period, whether changes in various figures are beyond sampling errors are based on tests using the same weighting methods. That is, to test whether the first set of figures collected in 2014 is significantly different from that of the previous survey, both sets of data are rim weighted before testing, instead of using simple computation of the published figures.
[4] Because of sampling errors in conducting the survey(s) and the rounding procedures in processing the data, the figures cannot be too precise, and the totals may not be completely accurate. Therefore, when quoting percentages of the survey(s), journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases the latest findings on various Taiwan issues. From 2014, POP enhanced the previous simple weighting method based on age and gender distribution to “rim weighting” based on age, gender and education (highest level attended) distribution. The latest figures released today have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2013 year-end and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
10-12/3/2014	1,008	68.4%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.
[7] The figures shown in the “latest change” column of this press release have been tested after “rim weighting” data collected in this and last surveys. The structural effect of using the new weighting method is small, around -2% to +1% for percentage figures, while statistical significance tests are not affected.

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Latest people’s views towards various Taiwan issues are summarized below:

Date of survey^[8]	22-27/3/12	21-29/8/12	5-14/3/13	8-15/8/13	10-12/3/14	Latest Change
Total sample size^[8]	1,014	1,004	1,006	1,025	1,008	--
Overall response rate	62.7%	65.5%	68.8%	67.7%	68.4%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[9]	--
Taiwan independence: Opposition rate	64%	58%^[10]	60%	61%	58+/-4%	-3%
Taiwan independence: Support rate	20%	25%^[10]	25%	26%	29+/-4%	+3%
Net opposition	44%	33%	35%	35%	29+/-7%	-6%
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was applicable to Taiwan	49%^[10]	43%^[10]	39%	41%	42+/-4%	+1%
Believed ‘one country, two systems’ was not applicable to Taiwan	37%^[10]	40%	44%	44%	43+/-4%	-1%
Net value of applicability	12%	3%	-5%	-3%	0+/-7%	+3%
Confidence in cross-strait reunification	40%^[10]	40%	37%	37%	37+/-4%	--
No confidence in cross-strait reunification	46%^[10]	43%	46%	52%^[10]	49+/-4%	-3%
Net confidence	-6%	-3%	-9%	-15%	-12+/-8%	+3%
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Support rate	43%	41%	48%^[10]	52%	44+/-4%	-8%^[10]
Taiwan rejoining the United Nations: Opposition rate	34%^[10]	31%	29%	29%	35+/-4%	+6%^[10]
Net support	9%	10%	19%^[10]	23%	9+/-8%	-14%^[10]

[8] Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 553 to 616, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated. Since 2012, the frequency of surveys has reduced from once every 3 months to half-yearly.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-8%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level under the same weighting method, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 58% of Hong Kong people interviewed opposed the independence of Taiwan whereas 29% showed support, with net opposition at positive 29 percentage points. As for the applicability of “one country, two systems” to Taiwan, 42% gave a positive view while 43% gave a negative answer, with net value of applicability at zero. 37% were confident in the ultimate reunification across the strait whilst 49% expressed no confidence, with net confidence at negative 12 percentage points. 44% supported the rejoining the United Nations of Taiwan while 35% opposed, with net support at positive 9 percentage points.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ view on the Taiwan independence issue and confidence in cross-strait reunification by age:

Date of survey: 10-12/3/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
View on the Taiwan independence issue^[11]	Oppose	36+/-9% (38)	62+/-7% (127)	64+/-6% (167)	58+/-4% (332)
	Support	58+/-10% (62)	27+/-6% (55)	19+/-5% (50)	29+/-4% (168)
	Don’t know / hard to say	6+/-5% (6)	11+/-4% (24)	16+/-5% (42)	13+/-3% (72)
	Total	100% (107)	100% (206)	100% (259)	100% (572)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 10-12/3/2014		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Confidence in cross-strait reunification^[12]	Yes	20+/-8% (22)	40+/-7% (83)	42+/-6% (107)	37+/-4% (213)
	No	79+/-8% (88)	53+/-7% (111)	34+/-6% (88)	50+/-4% (287)
	Don’t know / hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	8+/-4% (17)	24+/-5% (62)	14+/-3% (80)
	Total	100% (111)	100% (211)	100% (258)	100% (580)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from August 8 to 15, 2013 while this survey was conducted from March 10 to 12, 2014. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

12/3/14	China public security arrests two assailants of Kevin Lau Chun-to's assault case and Hong Kong police arrests seven suspected people.
8/3/14	Malaysia Airlines airliner disappears on the ocean bordering Vietnam and Malaysia.
5/3/14	Premier Li Keqiang delivers his first Government Work Report in the National People's Congress.
4/3/14	Zhang Dejiang and Lee Ka-kit express their opinions at a meeting with Hong Kong and Macao members of the National Committee of the Chinese People's Political Consultative Conference.
2/3/14	Xinjiang separatists' organization launches terrorist attack at Kunming Railway Station.
25/2/14	The central government changes the venue of the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting of finance ministers to Beijing.
18/12/13	The Court of Final Appeal's ruling on the seven-year residence requirement for applicants of Comprehensive Social Security Assistance is unconstitutional arouses discussion among the Hong Kong society.
14/12/13	China's lunar probe Chang'e-3 lands successfully.
12/11/13	The Third Plenary Session of the 18th Communist Party of China Central Committee ends.
28/10/13	A jeep crashes into Tiananmen Square.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “Our latest survey shows that although Hong Kong people’s opposition to the independence of Taiwan remains high, the support rate has slightly increased to about 30%, narrowing the net opposition rate to 29 percentage points which is a new low since October 1995. It should be noted that the percentage of those who support Taiwan rejoining the UN has dropped significantly to 44% compared to half a year ago, giving a net support of 9 percentage points. In general, although Hong Kong people object to the independence of Taiwan, they tend to support giving Taiwan more international space. The percentage of those who believed ‘one country, two systems’ should or should not be applicable to Taiwan both stand at 42% to 43%, giving a net value of zero. Besides, people’s confidence in reunification across the strait has improved slightly compared to half a year ago, with net confidence at negative 12 percentage points. Further analysis shows that younger people are more supportive of Taiwan’s independence and more pessimistic about cross-strait reunification. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’.”

Future Release (Tentative)

March 25, 2014 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Trust and confidence indicators