South China Morning Post sponsored “Survey on Political Reform” Back

Released on 15/9/2014 by South China Morning Post; online from 15/9/2014

Research Background

South China Morning Post commissioned the Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey in September 2014 aiming at gauging citizens’ opinions on the political reform.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting the South China Morning Post, all fieldwork operations, data collection and analysis were carried out independently by POP, in other words, POP has full independence in the survey design and operation and would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research team members

Project directors :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project manager :
LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data analyst :
TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Contact Information

Survey Date	:	4-11/9/2014
Survey Method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers
Target Population	:	Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong citizens aged 18 or above
Sampling method	:	Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one eligible subject had been available, the one who had her birthday next was selected.
Sample size	:	1,008 successful cases
Overall response rate	:	64.3%
Sampling error	:	Standard error less than 1.6%, that is, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3.1% at 95% confidence level

* In order to increase the representation of the results, the survey figures have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2014 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census. Figures in the report are prevailed according to the “weighted” sample.

Frequency tables

[Q1] The National People’s Congress Standing Committee has set a framework to limit the number of candidates to two or three and require them to have the support of at least half of the 1,200 nominating committee members. The formation of the nominating committee will be the same as those of the elction committee responsible for choosing the chief executive in 2012. Should the Legislative Council pass or veto the government proposal on the election of the chief executive by universal suffrage based on this framework?

	Frequency	Percent
Approve	391	39
Veto	480	48
Don’t know/hard to say	133	13
Total	1004	100

[Q2] Would you continue to vote for the lawmaker that you have voted for in the 2016 Legco election if he/she vetoes the government proposal on the 2017 chief executive election by universal suffrage?

	Frequency	Percent
Yes	471	47
No	340	34
Don’t know/hard to say	194	19
Total	1004	100

[Q3] If the proposal for implementing universal suffrage in 2017 is passed, do you think there is a chance that the method for electing chief executive could be changed in future?

	Frequency	Percent
Very likely	73	7
Quite likely	164	16
Half-half	126	12
Quite unlikely	104	10
Very unlikely	193	19
No chance	250	25
Don’t know/hard to say	98	10
Total	1008	100

[Q3gp] If the proposal for implementing universal suffrage in 2017 is passed, do you think there is a chance that the method for electing chief executive could be changed in future?

	Frequency	Percent
Yes	660	65
Likely	238	24
Half-half	126	12
Unlikely	297	29
No chance	250	25
Don’t know/hard to say	98	10
Total	1008	100

[Q3b] If the proposal for implementing universal suffrage in 2017 is not passed, do you think there is a chance that the method for electing chief executive could be changed in future?

	Frequency	Percent
Very likely	61	6
Quite likely	158	16
Half-half	130	13
Quite unlikely	129	13
Very unlikely	178	18
No chance	237	24
Don’t know/hard to say	115	11
Total	1008	100

[Q3bgp] If the proposal for implementing universal suffrage in 2017 is not passed, do you think there is a chance that the method for electing chief executive could be changed in future?

	Frequency	Percent
Yes	655	65
Likely	219	22
Half-half	130	13
Unlikely	306	30
No chance	237	24
Don’t know/hard to say	115	11
Total	1008	100

[Q4] Do you think there is a chance that the Occupy Central movement can change the central government’s stance on Hong Kong’s political reform?

	Frequency	Percent
Very likely	15	2
Quite likely	27	3
Half-half	57	6
Quite unlikely	96	10
Very unlikely	187	19
No chance	579	57
Don’t know/hard to say	47	5
Total	1008	100

[Q4gp] Do you think there is a chance that the Occupy Central movement can change the central government’s stance on Hong Kong’s political reform?

	Frequency	Percent
Yes	382	38
Likely	42	4
Half-half	57	6
Unlikely	283	28
No chance	579	57
Don’t know/hard to say	47	5
Total	1008	100

scmp20140915

Photo source: South China Morning Post

Crosstab analysis (Chinese only)

Related news report