Opinion Survey on Political Development of Macau返回

Research Background

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong was established in June 1991 to collect and study public opinion on topics which could be of interest to academics, journalists, policy-makers, and the general public. POP was at first under the Social Sciences Research Centre, a unit under the Faculty of Social Sciences of The University of Hong Kong, and was transferred to the Journalism and Media Studies Centre in The University of Hong Kong in May 2000. In January 2002, it was transferred back to the Faculty of Social Sciences in The University of Hong Kong. Since its establishment, POP has been providing quality survey services to a wide range of public and private organizations, provided that they allow the POP Team to design and conduct the research independently. POP also insists that the findings should finally be open for public consumption.

Further to our first collaboration in April 2012, POP was again commissioned by New Macau Association to conduct this “Opinion Survey on Political Development in Macau” in October 2014. The target population of this survey was all Macau citizens aged 18 or above who speak Cantonese, and the main objective is to understand Macau people’s views on the election method of Chief Executive and Legislative Assembly as well as their attitude towards the future of political reform in Macau. It should be noted that, all questions asked in this survey are brand new and therefore not comparable to the survey conducted in 2012.

The research instrument used in this study was designed by the POP Team after consulting New Macau Association. Meanwhile, fieldwork operations and data collection were conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, though New Macau Association has provided many constructive suggestions to POP during the questionnaire design stage, POP was given full autonomy to the research design and operations, in return, POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research Team Members

Research Directors :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project Manager :
LEE Wai-Kin Frank

Project Executive :
CHAN Ka-Shu Kenneth

Contact Information

Date of survey	:	December 1 to 2, 2014
Survey method	:	Telephone survey conducted by real telephone interviewers. Upon successful contact with target househould, one member of the household is selected among those present using the "next birthday" rule.
Target population	:	Macau citizens aged 18 or above who speak Cantonese
Sample size	:	506 successful cases
Response rate	:	67.5%
Sampling error	:	Less than 2.2%, meaning that the sampling error for percentages is less than plus/minus 4.4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

Research Design

This was a random telephone survey conducted by telephone interviewers under close supervision. All data were collected by our interviewers using a Web-based Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (Web-CATI) system which allowed real-time data capture and consolidation. To ensure data quality, on top of on-site supervision and random checking, voice recording, screen capturing and camera surveillance were used to monitor the interviewers’ performance.

Telephone numbers were selected randomly from the Macau residential telephone directories and mixed with additional numbers generated by the computer. Invalid numbers were then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

The target population of this survey was Macau citizens aged 18 or above who speak Cantonese. When telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one target respondent was selected. If more than one subject had been available, selection was made using the "next birthday rule" which would pick the person who had his/her birthday next from all those present.

The fieldwork was conducted during the period of 1 to 2 December 2014. A total of 506 qualified respondents were successfully interviewed. As shown from the calculation in Appendix I, the overall response rate of this survey was 67.5% (Table 1 of the appendix), and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 2.2 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for percentages was less than plus/minus 4.4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

To ensure representativeness of the findings, the raw data collected have been weighted according to figures obtained from the Statistics and Census Service of Macau Government regarding the gender-age distribution of the Macau population in 2013 year-end. All figures in this report are based on the weighted sample.

Survey Findings (pdf format only)

Conclusion (pdf format only)

Frequency Tables (pdf format only)

Presentation (pdf format only)