2016 Legislative Council Election Pre-nomination Survey返回

Research Background

Power for Democracy commissioned Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (POP) in June 2016 to conduct this survey on 20 June to 8 July 2016 with 5,084 Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong registered voters aged 18 or above. The goal is to gauge the registered voters’ views on Legislative Council Election before the nomination period, and also provide data for the civil society.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting Power for Democracy, while the proposed lists of candidates for each constituency were solely provided by Power for Democracy. Fieldwork operations and data analysis were conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith. In addition, Power for Democracy and POP agreed to release the survey method, results and the raw data for public consumption.

Research Design

Telephone interviews were conducted by interviewers under close supervision. All data were collected by our interviewers using a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) system invented by the research team which allowed real-time data capture and consolidation. To ensure data quality, on top of on-site supervision, voice recording, screen capturing and camera surveillance were used to monitor the interviewers' performance.

Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

The target population of this survey was Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong registered voters aged 18 or above. If more than one eligible subject had been available, selection was made using the “next birthday rule” which selected the person who had his/her birthday next. The survey was conducted on 20 June to 8 July 2016. A total of 5,084 eligible respondents were successfully interviewed. The effective response rate of this survey was 70.9%, and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 0.7 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages using the total sample was less than plus/minus 1.4 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

To ensure representativeness of the findings, the raw data collected have been rim-weighted according to the age-gender distributions of registered voters in each geographic constituency based on the 2016 provisional register of electors provided by the Government.