Integrated analysis of the final stage of 2016 Legislative Council Election SurveyBack

| Research Background | Research Team Mmembers | Contact Information| Questionnaire |

| Frequency Tables | Presentation slides prepared by sponsor | Press release prepared by sponsor |

|Press release prepared by POP |


Research Background

Power for Democracy has sponsored the “2016 Legislative Council Election Rolling Survey”, which was designed and conducted independently by The Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong (POP). The goal of the survey was to gauge registered voters’ views on Legislative Council Election and to provide free data for civil society.

 

The integrated analysis released here combined 12 consecutive days of rolling survey data from 21 August to 1 September. More than 5,000 cases were collected and integrated for in-depth analysis to show public opinion in the final stage of the election campaign. It also included the survey data about strategic voters conducted from 29 to 31 August. Fieldwork operations and data analysis were conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.


Research Team Members

Research Directors :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert and
PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project Manager :
LEE Wai-kin Frank

Project Executive :
CHAN Ka-Shu Kenneth

Data Analyst :
TAI Chit-Fai Edward


Survey date

:

21/8-1/9/2016

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers

Target population

:

Cantonese-speaking Hong Kong registered voters aged 18 or above

Sampling method

:

Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected.

Sample size

:

5,311 successful cases (Hong Kong Island 1,001; Kowloon West 843; Kowloon East 819; New Territories West 1,336; New Territories East 1,312)

Weighting method

 

The raw data collected in each geographic constituency have been rim-weighted according to the age-gender distributions of registered voters based on the 2016 final registers of electors provided by the Government

Effective response rate

:

75.0%

Sampling error

:

At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-1.4 percentage points (sampling error of each constituency is between +/-2% to +/-3%)



Questionnaire (Chinese pdf format only)

Frequency Tables (Chinese pdf format only)

Presentation slides prepared by sponsor (Chinese pdf format only)

Press release prepared by sponsor (Chinese pdf format only)

Press release prepared by POP


| Research Background | Research Team Mmembers | Contact Information| Questionnaire |

| Frequency Tables | Presentation slides prepared by sponsor | Press release prepared by sponsor |

|Press release prepared by POP |