Pre-election Survey on 2018 Legislative Council by-election in Kowloon WestBack

| Research Background | Research Team Members | Contact Information | Research Design |

| Demographics of Respondents | Frequency Tables| Crosstab Analysis | Related News Report |


Research Background

Appledaily commissioned Public Opinion Programme at The University of Hong Kong in October 2018 to conduct this survey on 1 to 19 November 2018 with 504 registered voters of Kowloon West Constituency. The goal is to gauge local voters’ views on the coming Legislative Council by-election in Kowloon West Constituency.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting commissioning party. Fieldwork operations and data analysis were conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside party. In other words, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.



Research Team Members

Research Directors :
CHUNG Ting-Yiu Robert
and PANG Ka-Lai Karie

Project Manager :
LEE Wai-kin Frank

Data Analyst :
TAI Chit-Fai Edward

Survey date

:

1-19/11/2018

Survey method

:

Random telephone survey conducted with interviewers

Target population

:

Registered voters of Kowloon West Constituency

Sampling method

:

Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample. If more than one subject had been available, the one who had his/her birthday next was selected.

Sample size

:

504 successful cases (including 324 landline and 180 mobile numbers)

Effective response rate

:

65.5%

Standard error

:

Less than 2.2% (At 95% confidence level, the maximum sampling error of all percentages should be no more than +/-4.5 percentage points)

Weighting method

:

The data has been rim-weighted according to figures of gender-age distribution in Kowloon West Constituency provided by the 2018 official registers.


Research Design

Telephone interviews were conducted by interviewers under close supervision. All data were collected by our interviewers using a Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (CATI) system invented by the research team which allowed real-time data capture and consolidation. To ensure data quality, on top of on-site supervision, voice recording, screen capturing and camera surveillance were used to monitor the interviewers' performance.

 

Telephone numbers are randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers are then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

 

The target population of this survey was registered voters of Kowloon West Constituency. For landline sample, when telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one eligible subject was interviewed. If more than one eligible subject had been available, selection was made using the “next birthday rule” which selected the person who had his/her birthday next. The survey was conducted on 1 to 19 November 2018. A total of 504 eligible respondents were successfully interviewed, including 324 landline and 180 mobile samples. The effective response rate of this survey was 65.5%, and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 2.2 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages using the total sample was less than plus/minus 4.5 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

 

To ensure representativeness of the findings, the raw data has been rim-weighted according to figures of gender-age distribution in Kowloon West Constituency provided by the 2018 official registers.

 


| Research Background | Research Team Members | Contact Information | Research Design |

| Demographics of Respondents | Frequency Tables| Crosstab Analysis | Related News Report |