Survey on 2017 Chief Executive Election sponsored by Ming Pao (Third Round)Back

Research Background

In December 2016, Ming Pao commissioned The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at The University of Hong Kong to conduct this survey from 19 to 22 December 2016 with 1,007 Cantonese-speaking citizens of Hong Kong of age 18 or above. The objective was to gauge the views of Hong Kong citizens on 2017 Chief Executive Election.

The research instrument used in this study was designed entirely by the POP Team after consulting Ming Pao. Fieldwork operations and data analysis were also conducted independently by the POP Team, without interference from any outside parties. In other words, although POP has sought opinion from Ming Pao regarding the questionnaire design, POP was given full autonomy to design and conduct the survey, and POP would take full responsibility for all the findings reported herewith.

Research Design

Telephone interviews were conducted by telephone interviewers under close supervision. All data were collected by interviewers using a Web-based Computer Assisted Telephone Interview (Web-CATI) system invented in-house by the research team, which allowed real-time data capture and consolidation. To ensure data quality, on top of on-site supervision and random checking, voice recording, screen capturing and camera surveillance were used to monitor the interviewers’ performance.

Telephone numbers were randomly generated using known prefixes assigned to telecommunication services providers under the Numbering Plan provided by the Office of the Communications Authority (OFCA). Invalid numbers were then eliminated according to computer and manual dialing records to produce the final sample.

The target population of the survey was Hong Kong residents aged 18 or above who spoke Cantonese. After telephone contact was successfully established with a target household, one eligible person was selected using “next birthday rule” for the interview. Telephone interviews were conducted during the period of 19 to 22 December, 2016. A total of 1,007 Hong Kong residents of age 18 or above were successfully interviewed. The response rate of this survey was 70.7%, and the standard sampling error for percentages based on this sample was less than 1.6 percentage points. In other words, the sampling error for all percentages using the total sample was less than plus/minus 3.2 percentage points at 95% confidence level.

To ensure representativeness of the findings, the raw data have been rim-weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2016 mid-year and the educational attainment (highest level attended) distribution collected in the 2011 Census.

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