HKU POP releases the results of Policy Address follow-up surveyBack

According to the Policy Address instant survey conducted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong, among respondents who had some knowledge of CY Leung’s first Policy Address, 36% said they were satisfied. However, in our follow-up survey conducted between 17 and 18 January, the figure drops significantly to 27%, while dissatisfaction rate increases from 24% to 39%. This is similar to the past but the fluctuation is slightly bigger. In terms of rating, our follow-up survey records an average score of 48.2, a very significant drop of 8.2 marks compared to our instant poll. All in all, after some initial discussions, people’s appraisal of this year’s Policy Address has dropped remarkably. POP will soon conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people’s further reaction. Regarding the theme of the Address, 53% of respondents agree that “Seek Change Maintain Stability, Serve the People with Pragmatism” meets the need of society. In terms of key policy areas, 77% support the Government to uphold the principle of assisting grassroots families in moving into public housing, and helping the middle-income families to buy their own homes. Besides, 61% support the abolishment of all DC appointed seats from 2016 onwards, whereas 45% support the “no giveaway” practice in the Address. However, 44% consider the effect of the housing and land supply policies on tackling housing problems to be “small”, and as many as 52% consider that of setting poverty line in tackling poverty problems to be “small”. Finally, according to the results of our tracking question, people's net satisfaction with CY Leung's policy direction now stands at positive 3 percentage points, which is better than the corresponding figure for Donald Tsang after he delivered his Policy Address in 2011. POP will release another round of Policy Address survey findings in a little more than one week’s time. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen. The follow-up survey interviewed 530 Hong Kong people by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of rating figure is +/-2.1 and net value needs another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Since 1992, POP has been conducting Policy Address instant surveys every year. In 1998, we expanded our instant surveys to cover the Budget Talks. In general, such instant polls which measure people's instant reactions would be repeated later by a follow-up survey which measure people's more matured reactions. We believe this is the correct way to study public opinion. In 2008, we further split our instant survey into two. In our first survey, we measure people's overall appraisal of the Policy Address, their rating of the Policy Address, their change in confidence towards Hong Kong's future, and CE's popularity. One to two days later, we would conduct our first follow-up survey to study people's reactions towards different government proposals, and any change in their satisfaction of the Policy Address. The findings of this year’s instant survey were already released on January 17. Today, we release the results of our first follow-up survey.

The findings of the Policy Address follow-up survey released by POP today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-2012. Herewith the contact information of various surveys:

Results of the follow-up survey of Policy Address, together with the instant poll, for 2011 and 2013 are tabulated below:

Our latest survey revealed that 27% of the respondents were satisfied with the Policy Address and 39% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half” in general. The average rating registered for the Policy Address was 48.2 marks. With respect to people's specific reactions towards the contents of this year's Policy Address, relevant findings are summarized below:

Findings on people’s opinion whether the theme of Policy Address concurred with the current needs of the society from 1997 up to this year are summarized as follows:

Results showed that 53% thought the theme of the Policy Address “Seek Change Maintain Stability Serve the People with Pragmatism” concurred with the current needs of the society while 27% did not think so. Besides, 77% supported CY Leung’s views that home ownership by the middle class was crucial to social stability, the Government was therefore determined to uphold the principle of assisting grassroots families in moving into public housing and the middle-income families in buying their own homes while 10% opposed. Besides, 61% supported the abolishment of all DC appointed seats from 2016 onwards while 14% opposed. Regarding the lack of specific measure that provides instant benefits to the grassroots and middle class proposed in CY Leung’ Policy Address, 45% supported this practice while 34% opposed. As for the effect of the housing and land supply policies on tackling housing problems, 20% said the effect would be big while 44% said it would be small. As for the effect of setting poverty line to thoroughly investigate the causes of poverty proposed by CY Leung on tackling the poverty problems, 17% said the effect would be big while 52% said it would be small.

Respondents’ appraisal of CY Leung’s policy direction, together with people’s appraisals of Donald Tsang’s policy direction at the same period in previous years, are tabulated below:

As for people's satisfaction with CY Leung's policy direction, 35% of the respondents showed satisfaction while 32% were not satisfied. The mean score is 3.0, meaning close to “half-half” in general.

According to our Policy Address instant survey, among respondents who had some knowledge of CY Leung’s first Policy Address, 36% said they were satisfied. However, in our follow-up survey, the figure drops significantly to 27%, while dissatisfaction rate increases from 24% to 39%. This is similar to the past but the fluctuation is slightly bigger. In terms of rating, our follow-up survey records an average score of 48.2, a very significant drop of 8.2 marks compared to our instant poll. All in all, after some initial discussions, people’s appraisal of this year’s Policy Address has dropped remarkably. POP will soon conduct another round of follow-up survey to map people’s further reaction.

Regarding the theme of the Address, 53% of respondents agree that “Seek Change Maintain Stability, Serve the People with Pragmatism” meets the need of society. In terms of key policy areas, 77% support the Government to uphold the principle of assisting grassroots families in moving into public housing, and helping the middle-income families to buy their own homes. Besides, 61% support the abolishment of all DC appointed seats from 2016 onwards, whereas 45% support the “no giveaway” practice in the Address. However, 44% consider the effect of the housing and land supply policies on tackling housing problems to be “small”, and as many as 52% consider that of setting poverty line in tackling poverty problems to be “small”.

Finally, according to the results of our tracking question, people's net satisfaction with CY Leung's policy direction now stands at positive 3 percentage points, which is better than the corresponding figure for Donald Tsang after he delivered his Policy Address in 2011.

POP will release another round of Policy Address survey findings in a little more than one week’s time. Whether public opinion would change after many rounds of discussion remains to be seen.

• January 24, 2013 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm:  Popularity of Top Ten Legislative Councillors

• January 29, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm:  Popularity of CE and SAR Government