HKU POP releases society appraisal Back

Press Release on January 8, 2013

Special Announcements

(1) “New Year Rally” video record for public consumption

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will upload the full set of video record of the New Year Rally to the “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) today. Public are welcomed to download the video record from the “New Year Rally Feature page”, and do their own headcount of the Rally. POP also provides all the video clips in higher resolution, available for purchase at production cost, for details, please refer to the note inside the page.

(2) Year-end Review

Although the figures released today by POP come from a tracking survey straddling 2013, it can still be considered as the last tracking survey on this topic started in 2012. The half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,007 Hong Kong people from December 27, 2012 to January 3, 2013 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but it can be seen that the absolute ratings for livelihood and economic issues are significantly higher than those registered half a year ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 8, negative 30 and negative 41 percentage points. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition, slightly worse than half a year ago. In-depth analysis shows that, the younger the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. The maximum sampling error of all percentages in the survey mentioned is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling errors of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 65%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,007 successful interviews, not 1,007 x 65.3% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-2% and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.14 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages^[6]
27/12/2012-3/1/2013	1,007	65.3%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent figures of people’s appraisal of society’s conditions are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	13-16/12/10	27/6-5/7/11	28-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,013	1,011	509	1,048^[7]	1,007	--
Overall response rate	67.4%	65.7%	62.8%	69.6%	65.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Most concerned with livelihood problems^[8]	52%	70%^[10]	64%^[10]	61%	63+/-3%	+2%
Most concerned with economic problems	36%^[10]	20%^[10]	30%^[10]	26%	22+/-3%	-4%^[10]
Most concerned with political problems	9%^[10]	7%	4%^[10]	10%^[10]	12+/-2%	+2%
Rating on concern for livelihood problems^[8]	7.48	7.38	--	7.13^[10]	7.30+/-0.12	+0.17^[10]
Rating on concern for economic problems	7.25^[10]	7.16	--	7.07	7.20+/-0.12	+0.13^[10]
Rating on concern for political problems	5.86	5.71^[10]	--	5.92^[10]	5.79+/-0.14	-0.13

Date of survey^[12]	25/10-3/11/11	21-28/11/11	19-29/12/11	19-25/6/12	27/12/12-3/1/13	Latest change
Sample base	1,009	1,001	1,027	1,048^[7]	1,007	--
Overall response rate	66.9%	70.6%	62.9%	69.6%	65.3%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[9]	--
Current economic condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%	34%	31%	24%^[10]	29+/-3%	+5%^[10]
Current economic condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	42%	38%^[10]	42%^[10]	44%	37+/-3%	-7%^[10]
Net satisfaction rate	-10%^[10]	-4%^[10]	-11%^[10]	-20%^[10]	-8+/-5%	+12%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=998)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=984)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=1,015)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=498)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=987)	+0.2^[10]
Current livelihood condition: Satisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	22%	27%^[10]	19%^[10]	19%	19+/-3%	--
Current livelihood condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[8] ^[11]	53%	44%^[10]	54%^[10]	59%^[10]	49+/-3%	-10%^[10]
Net satisfaction rate	-31%	-17%^[10]	-35%^[10]	-40%	-30+/-5%	+10%^[10]
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=989)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=964)	2.5+/-0.1^[10] (Base=1,002)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=500)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=991)	+0.2^[10]
Current political condition: Satisfaction rate^[11]	19%	26%^[10]	24%	17%^[10]	14+/-2%	-3%^[10]
Current political condition: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	55%	45%^[10]	45%	55%^[10]	55+/-3%	--
Net satisfaction rate	-36%	-19%^[10]	-21%	-38%^[10]	-41+/-5%	-3%
Mean value^[11]	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=971)	2.7+/-0.1^[10] (Base=936)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base=982)	2.4+/-0.1^[10] (Base=490)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=965)	--

[7] These questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned in the June 2012 survey, sub-sample sizes range from 501 to 532.
[8] The wordings used before the June 2010 survey were “social problems” and “social condition”. We take them to mean the same as “livelihood problems” and “livelihood condition” in the survey context.
[9] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of all percentages not more than +/-3%, that of ratings not more than +/-0.14 and net values not more than +/-5 percentage points, at 95% confidence level " when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Some questions in this part were sponsored by “now news channel” in 2011 and the last survey results have been announced in the programme “News Magazine” and in the “now Survey on Public Sentiment Index" segment on 9 Jan 2012.

Latest survey showed that 63% of the respondents were most concerned with livelihood problems, 22% with economic problems, while 12% attached their greatest concern to political problems. Using a scale of 0-10 marks, the ratings of people’s concern over livelihood, economic and political problems were 7.30, 7.20 and 5.79 marks correspondingly. Meanwhile, people's satisfaction rates with the current economic, livelihood and political conditions were 29%, 19% and 14% respectively, while their net satisfaction rates in these conditions were negative 4, negative 30 and negative 41 percentage points. The mean scores of the economic, livelihood and political conditions were 2.9, 2.6 and 2.4, meaning close to “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents’ satisfaction with the present social condition in Hong Kong by age:

Date of survey：27/12/12-3/1/13		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Generally speaking, are you satisfied with the present livelihood condition in Hong Kong? ^[13]	Satisfied	9%+/-3% (17)	17%+/-3% (66)	24%+/-3% (104)	19%+/-2% (186)
	Half-half	31%+/-5% (59)	28%+/-3% (107)	33%+/-3% (141)	31%+/-2% (307)
	Dissatisfied	59%+/-5% (110)	55%+/-4% (211)	41%+/-3% (173)	49%+/-2% (494)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1%+/-1% (2)	1%+/-1% (4)	2%+/-1% (9)	1%+/-1% (15)
	Total	100% (188)	100% (387)	100% (427)	100% (1,002)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.1 (186)	2.5+/-0.1 (384)	2.7+/-0.1 (418)	2.6+/-0.1 (987)

[13] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from June 19 to 25, 2012 while this survey was conducted from December 27, 2012 to January 3, 2013. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

2/1/13	The United States avoids the fiscal cliff.
30/12/12	A march in support of Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying.
20/12/12	Vice-President Xi Jinping affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung and his team.
11/12/12	Electricity consumers will face higher bills next year.
23/11/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying concedes that the illegal structures were put up after he had moved in, and says he had no intention of hiding the facts.
7/11/12	Barack Obama is re-elected to U.S. President.
26/10/12	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah says he will take extraordinary measures under exceptional circumstances on property market.
17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates on his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.
25/9/12	Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour.
8/9/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying scraps the three-year deadline for implementation of national education curriculum.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “According to our survey conducted before and after the 2013 New Year, using a one-in-three choices method, livelihood issues continue for many years to be people’s most concerned issues followed by economic and then political issues. The order is the same using absolute ratings of importance, but it can be seen that the absolute ratings for livelihood and economic issues are significantly higher than those registered half a year ago. As for the satisfaction figures, people’s net satisfaction of the current economic, livelihood and political conditions are all negative, respectively at negative 8, negative 30 and negative 41 percentage points. People are still least satisfied with the current political condition, slightly worse than half a year ago. In-depth analysis shows that, the younger the respondents, the more dissatisfied they are with the current political condition. We leave it for our readers to figure out the reasons for such feelings using detailed records shown in our 'Opinion Daily' feature page.”

Future Releases (Tentative)

January 10, 2013 (Thursday): Macau Year end survey 2012
January 14, 2013 (Monday): People's expectation of CE's Policy Address
January 15, 2013 (Tuesday): Popularity of CE and Principal Officials