HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on January 2, 2013

Special Announcement

Since the figures released today by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted in 2012, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,013 Hong Kong people between 18 and 28 December 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since our last survey. His support rating now stands at 49.1 marks and net popularity at negative 13 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentages points, back to the level registered two years ago, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 9 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five areas register significant increases compared to three months ago. Their rankings remain the same: Relation with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 2 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 1 percentage point, improving people’s livelihood at negative 7 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points. The effect of the January 1st rallies can only be seen in the next survey. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 66%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,013 successful interviews, not 1,013 x 65.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure and net value needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
18-28/12/2012	1,013	65.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	4-10/10/12	17-23/10/12	1-8/11/12	14-22/11/12	1-4/12/12	18-28/12/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,006	1,021	1,028	1,020	1,006	1,013	--
Overall response rate	65.8%	68.2%	65.1%	64.2%	66.2%	65.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	49.2^[9]	49.1	53.0^[9]	52.3	49.2^[9]	49.1+/-1.6	-0.1
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	39%^[9]	37%	42%^[9]	39%	37%	34+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	45%^[9]	47%	43%^[9]	45%	49%^[9]	47+/-3%	-2%
Net approval rate	-6%^[9]	-10%	-1%^[9]	-6%	-12%	-13+/-6%	-1%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	25%	--	25%	--	29+/-4%	+4%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	46%	--	41%^[9]	--	38+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-21%	--	-16%	--	-9+/-6%	+7%^[9]
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=599)	--	2.8+/-0.1^[9] (Base=599)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=649)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.6, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 661.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 49.1 marks, and 34% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 13 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 29% were satisfied, whereas 38% were dissatisfied, thus net satisfaction stands at negative 9 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half”.

Recent figures on people's appraisal of the five specific policy areas of the HKSAR Government are tabulated as follows:

Date of survey	14-28/12/11	16-21/3/12	19-25/6/12	18-27/9/12	18-28/12/12	Latest Change^[13]
Sample base^[13]	504-529	552-681	512-543	569-691	633-661	--
Overall response rate	65.9%	62.8%	69.6%	67.8%	65.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding]	Finding	Finding & error^[10]	--
Relation with the Central Government: Satisfaction rate^[11]	46%^[12]	44%	41%	32%^[12]	37+/-4%	+5%^[12]
Relation with the Central Government: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	26%	24%	27%	34%^[12]	28+/-4%	-6%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	+20%	+20%	+14%	-2%^[12]	+9+/-6%	+11%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=504)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base=522)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=477)	2.9+/-0.1^[12] (Base=609)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=559)	+0.1
Maintaining economic prosperity: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%	40%^[12]	27%^[12]	31%	35+/-4%	+4%
Maintaining economic prosperity: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	38%	34%	45%^[12]	37%^[12]	33+/-4%	-4%
Net satisfaction rate	-6%	+6%	-18%	-6%^[12]	+2+/-6%	+8%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=529)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base=602)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=519)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=540)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=610)	+0.1
Protecting human rights and freedom: Satisfaction rate^[11]	32%^[12]	41%^[12]	35%^[12]	29%^[12]	35+/-4%	+6%^[12]
Protecting human rights and freedom: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	41%	33%^[12]	37%	44%^[12]	36+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-9%	+8%	-2%	-15%^[12]	-1+/-7%	+14%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=506)	3.0+/-0.1^[12] (Base=538)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=495)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base =588)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=590)	+0.2^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Satisfaction rate^[11]	20%	19%	14%^[12]	26%^[12]	32+/-4%	+6%^[12]
Improving people's livelihood: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	58%	59%	62%	44%^[12]	39+/-4%	-5%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-38%	-40%	-48%	-18%^[12]	-7+/-7%	+11%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=516)	2.4+/-0.1 (Base=632)	2.2+/-0.1^[12] (Base=533)	2.7+/-0.1^[12] (Base=583)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=634)	+0.1
Pace of democratic development: Satisfaction rate^[11]	26%	25%	26%	22%^[12]	21+/-3%	-1%
Pace of democratic development: Dissatisfaction rate^[11]	50%	49%	47%	53%^[12]	45+/-4%	-8%^[12]
Net satisfaction rate	-24%	-24%	-21%	-31%^[12]	-24+/-6%	+7%^[12]
Mean value^[11]	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=517)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=656)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=499)	2.4+/-0.1^[12] (Base=536)	2.5+/-0.1 (Base=587)	-0.1

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[13] The frequency of this series of questions is different from that of CE popularity and SARG overall performance. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Of the 5 specific policy areas, people were most satisfied with the government's handling of its relation with the Central Government, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 9 percentage points. The government’s performance in maintaining economic prosperity followed, attaining a net satisfaction rate of positive 2 percentage points. The government’s performance in protecting human rights and freedom attained a net satisfaction rate of negative 1 percentage point. Finally, the net satisfaction rates of the government's performance in improving people's livelihood as well as developing democracy stand at negative 7 percentage points and negative 24 percentage points respectively. The mean scores of these 5 specific areas are 3.0, 2.9, 2.9, 2.8 and 2.5 respectively, meaning close to “half-half” in general.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 18-28/12/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	21+/-6% (39)	35+/-5% (133)	38+/-5% (163)	34+/-3% (335)
	Oppose	62+/-7% (116)	45+/-5% (171)	42+/-5% (178)	47+/-3% (465)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	17+/-6% (32)	21+/-4% (80)	20+/-4% (84)	20+/-3% (196)
	Total	100% (187)	100% (384)	100% (426)	100% (996)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 18-28/12/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfied	19+/-7% (22)	25+/-5% (64)	36+/-6% (102)	29+/-4% (188)
	Half-half	34+/-9% (40)	34+/-6% (86)	29+/-5% (80)	31+/-4% (206)
	Dissatisfied	45+/-9% (54)	40+/-6% (101)	33+/-6% (93)	38+/-4% (248)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	3+/-3% (3)	1+/-1% (3)	2+/-2% (6)	2+/-1% (12)
	Total	100% (120)	100% (254)	100% (281)	100% (655)
	Mean value	2.5+/-0.2 (117)	2.7+/-0.1 (251)	2.9+/-0.1 (275)	2.8+/-0.1 (642)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 27 September, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 18 to 28 December, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

24/12/12	The target of Government is to provide housing land for producing 20,000 private residential flats.
20/12/12	Vice-President Xi Jinping affirms the work of Chief Executive CY Leung and his team.
10/12/12	Chief Executive CY Leung apologizes for having illegal structure built in his home in the Legislative Council.
23/11/12	Chief Executive Leung Chun-ying concedes that the illegal structures were put up after he had moved in, and says he had no intention of hiding the facts.
15/11/12	The Communist Party of China has handed over helmsmanship to the new CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping and his colleagues.
26/10/12	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah says he will take extraordinary measures under exceptional circumstances on property market.
17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates on his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.
4/10/12	Hong Kong goes into three days of mourning today for the 38 people killed in the ferry disaster.
25/9/12	Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted before and after Christmas holidays shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since our last survey. His support rating now stands at 49.1 marks and net popularity at negative 13 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate goes up by 4 percentages points, back to the level registered two years ago, while dissatisfaction rate goes down by 3 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 9 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the five specific policy areas, in terms of net satisfaction rate, all five areas register significant increases compared to three months ago. Their rankings remain the same: Relation with the Central Government at positive 9 percentage points, maintaining economic prosperity at positive 2 percentage points, protection of human rights and freedom at negative 1 percentage point, improving people’s livelihood at negative 7 percentage points, and developing democracy at negative 24 percentage points. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our "Opinion Daily". The effect of the January 1st rallies can only be seen in the next survey."

Future Release (Tentative)

January 8, 2013 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People’s appraisal of society's conditions