HKU POP releases the latest figures of the 2012 year-end and 2013 forecast surveyBack

(1) "New Year Rally" headcount

 

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong will conduct some headcounts of mass rallies tomorrow (January 1, 2013), and release its preliminary results via the "HKU POP SITE" in the evening, around 2 to 4 hours after the rallies.

 

(2) "Friends of POP" Recruitment Ongoing

 

POP is recruiting a team of "Friends of POP" to consolidate civic power, the first activity being the New Year Rally study mentioned above. "Friends of POP" will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 volunteers), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end tonight. Interested citizens are welcome to register at "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk).

 

(3) PopCon users correctly predicted Park Geun-hye to be President of South Korea

 

The "South Korean Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game" hosted by the "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) run by POP finally collected over 1,000 guesstimate submissions. Average guesses for the two main contestants were 39% for Park Geun-hye and 36% for Moon Jae-in. Participants' guess of winner as well as the vote share difference between these two candidates are fairly close to the actual result. The game accumulated 80,865 bonus PopCoins, and the name of winners have been announced at PopCon.

POP interviewed 1,019 Hong Kong people between 14 and 17 December 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our annual survey shows that compared to a year ago, the percentage of those dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past surges by 11 percentage points to 46%, while those satisfied drops significantly by 8 percentage points to 25%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. Meanwhile, close to 60% said they lived a happy life in the year past, which is more or less the same as the figure registered this time last year, giving a net happiness of positive 46 percentage points. Those who expected next year's development, both on personal and societal levels, to get better in the year ahead, have gone up by 4 and 3 percentage points respectively. This shows that although people are not quite satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past, they still lived a happy life and are relatively optimistic about the future, perhaps because they thought things could not become worse. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for bribery-free, with a record high figure since this survey series started in 1993, possibly due to the involvement of the former CE, principal officials and public office bearers in scandals of conflicts of interest or advantage transfers. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has gone up significantly by 4 percentage points compared to a year ago. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health, while almost 30% made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy. Nearly 20% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with HK's development in 2012, while those aged between 18 and 29 are most pessimistic about the future. The maximum sampling error of the survey is between +/-2 and +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values need another calculation, response rate being 67%.

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest findings of the 2012 review and 2013 forecast survey. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2012. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Sample base	Overall response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages[6]
14-17/12/2012	1,019	67.5%	+/-3%

[6]  Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Herewith the figures collected at the year-end of 2012 compared with similar figures obtained in recent years:

Date of survey	14-17/12/09	17-22/12/10	12-20/12/11	14-17/12/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,000	1,017	1,007	1,019	--
Overall response rate	70.5%	66.4%	69.3%	67.5%	--
Latest finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error[7]	--
Satisfied with HK's development in the year past[8]	42%[10]	44%	33%[10]	25+/-3%	-8%[10]
Dissatisfied with HK's development in the year past[8]	24%[10]	23%	35%[10]	46+/-3%	+11%[10]
Net satisfaction rate	18%[10]	21%	-2%[10]	-21+/-5%	-19%[10]
Mean value[8]	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =967)	3.2+/-0.1 (Base =982)	2.9+/-0.1[10] (Base=972)	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=985)	-0.3[10]
Expected HK's development to be better next year	62%[10]	46%[10]	27%[10]	30+/-3%	+3%
Expected HK's development to be worse next year	12%[10]	20%[10]	48%[10]	32+/-3%	-16%[10]
Perceived housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	5%[10]	19%[10]	37%[10]	41+/-3%	+4%[10]
Perceived economy to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	41%[10]	27%[10]	24%	14+/-2%	-10%[10]
Perceived constitutional development ?to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	10%	4%	5%	13+/-2%	+8%[10]
Perceived welfare to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government next year	6%	14%[10]	9%[10]	10+/-2%	+1%
Wished HK to become a corruption-free society[9]	25%	23%	27%[10]	31+/-3%	+4%[10]
Wished HK to become a fair society	21%	27%[10]	28%	23+/-3%	-5%[10]
Wished HK to become a prosperous society	28%[10]	22%[10]	21%	18+/-2%	-3%[10]
Respondents who were happy in the year past[8]	55%	56%	61%[10]	58+/-3%	-3%
Respondents who were unhappy in the year past[8]	14%[10]	13%	11%	12+/-2%	+1%
Net happiness value	41%[10]	43%	50%[10]	46+/-4%	-4%
Mean value[8]	3.5+/-0.1 (Base =997)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base =1,011)	3.6+/-0.1 (Base =1,003)	3.5+/-0.1 (Base=1,013)	-0.1
Expected personal development to become better next year	55%[10]	46%[10]	40%[10]	44+/-3%	+4%[10]
Expected personal development to become worse next year	10%[10]	12%	19%[10]	13+/-2%	-6%[10]
New Year wishes: Personal matters (e.g. health, career, studies, wealth, family, love, marriage, friendship and other personal issues)	33%	37%[10]	40%	39+/-3%	-1%
New Year wishes: Society-related (e.g. economic related, people's livelihood, political related and others)	46%[10]	41%[10]	34%[10]	29+/-3%	-5%[10]
New Year wishes: World peace-related	8%	9%	11%	17+/-2%	+6%[10]
No special wish	11%	12%	12%	10+/-2%	-2%

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-3% and of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[9] The expression "clean society" was used in 2006 and before. In 2007, it was changed to "corruption-free society" to highlight the original meaning of the question.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Looking back at the year past, 25% said they were satisfied with Hong Kong's development, 46% were dissatisfied. The mean score is 2.6, which is between "quite dissatisfied" and "half-half" in general. Meanwhile, 30% expected Hong Kong's development in general to become "better" next year, 32% said it would be worse. Besides, 41% considered "housing" to be the most important problem that the government should tackle next year, 14% thought "economy" was the most pressing problem, while 13% and 10% thought "constitutional development" and "welfare" should be tackled respectively. If one had to choose between a "prosperous", "corruption-free", "fair", "free", and "welfare" society, 31% of the respondents would wish Hong Kong to become a "corruption-free" society, while 23% and 18% opted for a "fair" and "prosperous" society respectively.

 

Findings also showed that 58% of the respondents said they were happy in the year past, 12% were not. The mean score is 3.5, meaning close to "quite happy" in general. As for the coming year, 44% believed their personal development would become better, 13% thought they would be worse off. With respect to people's New Year wishes, 39% were related to personal matters, 29% were society-related, 17% were world peace-related, 10% did not have any New Year wish.

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of the satisfaction of HK's development in year 2012 and the expectation of HK's development in year 2013 by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-17/12/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction of HK's development in year 2012 [11]	Satisfied	24+/-6% (45)	21+/-4% (79)	29+/-4% (123)	25+/-3% (247)
	Half-half	28+/-7% (54)	29+/-5% (111)	25+/-4% (105)	27+/-3% (270)
	Dissatisfied	47+/-7% (89)	50+/-5% (192)	42+/-5% (181)	46+/-3% (461)
	Not sure	2+/-2% (3)	1+/-1% (4)	5+/-2% (20)	3+/-1% (27)
	Total	100% (190)	100% (386)	100% (429)	100% (1,005)
	Mean value	2.6+/-0.2 (187)	2.5+/-0.1 (383)	2.7+/-0.1 (409)	2.6+/-0.1 (978)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 14-17/12/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Expectation of HK's development in year 2013 [12]	Better	30+/-7% (57)	31+/-5% (121)	30+/-4% (129)	30+/-3% (307)
	Half-half	27+/-6% (51)	29+/-5% (114)	25+/-4% (107)	27+/-3% (272)
	Worse	43+/-7% (81)	30+/-5% (117)	28+/-4% (122)	32+/-3% (320)
	Don't know / hard to say	<1+/-<1% (1)	9+/-3% (37)	17+/-4% (72)	11+/-2% (110)
	Total	100% (190)	100% (389)	100% (431)	100% (1,009)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

Since August 2007, POP would normally include in its regular press releases a list of significant events which happened in between two surveys, so that readers can make their own judgment on whether these events have any effect on the ups and downs of the polling figures. This release is an exception, because the surveys invovled were one year apart, and any of the significant events listed in our "Opinion Daily" in between might have affected people's comments for the year past. Thus, this release has not highlighted any event from "Opinion Daily", but readers can make their own judgment based on the detailed records listed in our webpage.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our annual survey completed in mid-December shows that compared to a year ago, the percentage of those dissatisfied with Hong Kong's development in the year past surges by 11 percentage points to 46%, while those satisfied drops significantly by 8 percentage points to 25%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. Meanwhile, close to 60% said they lived a happy life in the year past, which is more or less the same as the figure registered this time last year, giving a net happiness of positive 46 percentage points. Those who expected next year's development, both on personal and societal levels, to get better in the year ahead, have gone up by 4 and 3 percentage points respectively. This shows that although people are not quite satisified with Hong Kong's development in the year past, they still lived a happy life and are relatively optimistic about the future, perhaps because they thought things could not become worse. Besides, if people had to choose between having a prosperous, bribery-free, fair, free or welfare society, most people would opt for bribery-free, with a record high figure since this survey series started in 1993, possibly due to the involvement of the former CE, principal officials and public office bearers in scandals of conflicts of interest or advantage transfers. Looking ahead, the percentage of those who consider housing to be the most important problem to be tackled by the government in the coming year has gone up significantly by 4 percentage points compared to a year ago. As for people's New Year wishes, without explicit prompting, close to 40% made a wish on personal matters, especially for health, while almost 30% made a wish on a society-related issue, mainly about the economy. Nearly 20% wished for world peace. Further analysis shows that the citizens aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with HK's development in 2012, while those aged between 18 and 29 are most pessimistic about the future."

• January 2, 2013 (Wednesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and HKSAR Government