HKU POP releases the latest trust and confidence indicators Back

Press Release on December 20, 2012

Special Announcement

1. PopCon users correctly predicted Park Geun-hye to be President of South Korea

The "South Korean Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game" hosted by the "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk) run by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong finally collected over 1,000 guesstimate submissions, 53% of which correctly predicted Park Geun-hye to win, which is fairly close to the actual result. The game has accumulated 80,865 bonus PopCoins, winners will be announced soon.

2. WAPOR will release a worldwide report on the "Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results"

The World Association for Public Opinion Research (WAPOR) collaborated with POP for the first time to conduct the fifth worldwide study on the "Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results". Findings will be released worldwide by WAPOR tonight, while POP will run a regional release tomorrow from Hong Kong. Previous studies were conducted in 1984, 1992, 1996 and 2002.

3. "Friends of POP" Recruitment Ongoing

POP is recruiting a team of "Friends of POP" to demonstrate civil power. "Friends of POP" will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 citizens), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end on December 31, 2012. Interested citizens are welcome to register at "PopCon" e-platform (http://popcon.hk). The first event will be the New Year rally study to be held on January 1st, 2013.

4. Year-end Review

Since the figures released by POP at the "HKU POP SITE" (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2012, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site". This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,030 Hong Kong people between 5 and 13 December 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that with the exception of Hong Kong people's trust in the Taiwan Government which drops slightly, all other trust and confidence indicators have gone up significantly, neutralizing the possible effect of various incidents which happened near the Legislative Council election. Compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government goes up by 11 percentage points, its net trust value now stands at positive 18 percentage points. Their trust in the Central Government goes up by 7 percentage points, with a net trust value of negative 1 percentage point. People's trust in the Taiwan Government drops slightly, with a net trust value of negative 8 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, including people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China, and that in 'one country, two systems' have all remained positive, with net values of positive 25, 51 and 16 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows the trust in HKSAR and Central Governments increases by people's age. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is +/-3 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while that of net values need another calculation. The response rates of the surveys are 67%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.

[2] The sample size of the survey is 1,030 successful interviews, not 1,030 x 66.7% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-3 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the POP Site the latest findings on people's trust in the HKSAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments, and their confidence in Hong Kong's future, China's future and "one country, two systems". As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
5-13/12/2012	1,030	66.7%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified.

Recent popularity figures of SAR, Beijing Central and Taiwan governments and people's confidence in the future as well as "one country, two systems" are summarized below:

Date of survey	12/2011	3/2012	6/2012	9/2012	12/2012	Latest Change
Total sample size^[7]	1,005	1,022	1,003	1,036	1,030	--
Overall response rate	67.4%	63.6%	63.4%	63.1%	66.7%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding & error ^[8]	--
Trust in HKSAR Government^[9]	35%^[10]	36%	35%	34%	45+/-4%	+11%^[10]
Distrust in HKSAR Government^[9]	32%	36%	32%	35%	27+/-4%	-8%^[10]
Net trust	3%	--	3%	-1%	18+/-7%	+19%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base=529)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =580)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=537)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =543)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=632)	+0.2^[10]
Trust in Beijing Government^[9]	33%	39%^[10]	32%^[10]	26%^[10]	33+/-4%	+7%^[10]
Distrust in Beijing Government^[9]	32%	34%	37%	40%	34+/-4%	-6%^[10]
Net trust	1%	5%	-5%	-14%^[10]	-1+/-7%	+13%^[10]
Mean value^[9]	3.0+/-0.1 (Base=527)	3.0+/-0.1 (Base =529)	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=515)	2.7+/-0.1 (Base =536)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=564)	+0.2^[10]
Trust in Taiwan Government^[9]	18%	31%^[10]	24%^[10]	21%	19+/-3%	-2%
Distrust in Taiwan Government^[9]	30%	28%	29%	25%	27+/-3%	+2%
Net trust	-12%	3%	-5%	-4%	-8+/-5%	-4%
Mean value^[9]	2.8+/-0.1^[10] (Base=378)	3.0+/-0.1^[10] (Base =410)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=447)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base =424)	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=484)	-0.1
Confidence in HK's future	55%	58%	53%^[10]	50%	58+/-4%	+8%^[10]
No-confidence in HK's future	37%	35%	32%	38%^[10]	33+/-4%	-5%^[10]
Net confidence	18%	23%	21%	12+/-8%	25+/-7%	+13%^[10]
Confidence in China's future	73%	79%^[10]	67%^[10]	66%	71+/-3%	+5%^[10]
No-confidence in China's future	19%	15%^[10]	23%^[10]	24%	20+/-3%	-4%^[10]
Net confidence	54%	64%	44%	42%	51+/-6%	+9%^[10]
Confidence in "one country, two systems"	52%^[10]	55%	51%	46%^[10]	54+/-4%	+8%^[10]
No-confidence in "one country, two systems"	40%^[10]	39%	37%	44%^[10]	38+/-4%	-6%^[10]
Net confidence	12%	16%	14%	2%^[10]	16+/-7%	+14%^[10]

[7] The frequency of this series of questions is different for different questions. Comparisons, if made, should be synchronized using the same intervals. Starting from March 2011, these questions only use sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sub-sample sizes of the surveys range from 601 to 687, and the increased sampling errors have already been reflected in the figures tabulated.
[8] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and of net values not more than +/-7% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[9] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[10] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Latest survey revealed that 45% of the respondents trusted the HKSAR Government, 33% trusted the Beijing Central Government, and 19% trusted the Taiwan Government. The mean scores of these trust indicators are 3.1, 2.9 and 2.8 respectively, meaning close to "half-half" in general. On the other hand, 58% of the respondents had confidence in Hong Kong's future and 71% had confidence in China's future, while 54% of the respondents were confident in "one country, two systems".

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. According to their answers, we grouped them into 18-29, 30-49, and 50 years or older. Herewith further analysis of respondents' trust in HKSAR Government and Beijing Central Government by age:

Date of survey:5-13/12/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in HKSAR Government^[11]	Trust	35+/-8% (45)	41+/-6% (96)	52+/-6% (146)	45+/-4% (288)
	Half-half	26+/-8% (33)	27+/-6% (63)	24+/-5% (68)	25+/-3% (164)
	Distrust	38+/-9% (50)	31+/-6% (71)	20+/-5% (56)	27+/-4% (177)
	Don't know/ hard to say	1+/-1% (1)	1+/-1% (3)	4+/-2% (12)	2+/-1% (16)
	Total	100% (129)	100% (233)	100% (283)	100% (645)
	Mean value	2.8+/-0.2 (Base=128)	3.0+/-0.2 (Base=230)	3.4+/-0.1 (Base=271)	3.1+/-0.1 (Base=629)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey:5-13/12/12		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall Sample
Percentage of trust/distrust in Beijing Central Government^[12]	Trust	19+/-7% (24)	30+/-6% (67)	42+/-6% (102)	32+/-4% (193)
	Half-half	27+/-8% (35)	30+/-6% (66)	25+/-6% (62)	27+/-4% (163)
	Distrust	50+/-9% (64)	39+/-7% (88)	22+/-5% (53)	35+/-4% (205)
	Don't know/ hard to say	4+/-3% (5)	1+/-1% (3)	10+/-4% (25)	6+/-2% (33)
	Total	100% (127)	100% (224)	100% (242)	100% (593)
	Mean value	2.4+/-0.2 (Base=123)	2.8+/-0.2 (Base=221)	3.2+/-0.2 (Base=217)	2.9+/-0.1 (Base=560)

[12] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, some items within the previous survey were conducted from September 11 to 14, 2012 while this survey was conducted from December 5 to 13, 2012. In between these two surveys, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

13/12/12	Government suggests the Court of Final Appeal consider asking for a Beijing clarification on right of abode cases.
10/12/12	Chief Executive CY Leung apologizes for having illegal structure built in his home in the Legislative Council.
8/12/12	About 200 Shenzhen residents had an unexpectedly close encounter with Xi Jinping.
15/11/12	The Communist Party of China has handed over helmsmanship to the new CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping and his colleagues.
7/11/12	The 18th National Congress of the Communist Party of China opens.
3/11/12	Executive Councillor Franklin Lam Fan-keung takes leave of absence.
17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates on his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.
11/10/12	Mo Yan becomes the first Chinese author to win the Nobel Prize for literature.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.
28/9/12	Bo Xilai has been expelled from the Communist Party.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, "Our latest survey conducted in the first half of December shows that with the exception of Hong Kong people's trust in the Taiwan Government which drops slightly, all other trust and confidence indicators have gone up significantly, neutralizing the possible effect of various incidents which happened near the Legislative Council election. Compared to three months ago, people's trust in the HKSAR Government goes up by 11 percentage points, its net trust value now stands at positive 18 percentage points. Their trust in the Central Government goes up by 7 percentage points, with a net trust value of negative 1 percentage point. People's trust in the Taiwan Government drops slightly, with a net trust value of negative 8 percentage points. As for the confidence indicators, including people's confidence in the future of Hong Kong and China, and that in 'one country, two systems' have all remained positive, with net values of positive 25, 51 and 16 percentage points respectively. Further analysis shows the trust in HKSAR and Central Governments increases by people's age. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers are welcome to make their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in our 'Opinion Daily'."

Future Releases (Tentative)

December 21, 2012 (Friday) 1pm to 2pm: Freedom to Publish Opinion Poll Results
December 27, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Hong Kong people's ethnic identity