HKU POP releases popularity figures of top 5 Hong Kong disciplinary forces and the PLA Hong Kong GarrisonBack

(1) “South Korean Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game” ends tonight

The “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong launched a new game called “South Korean Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game” in late November. Users can now make guesses on the vote share of the South Korean Presidential Election due to take place on December 19 this year, in order to earn credits and win prizes. Guessing figures will be released real time until the last minute of the game (i.e. 23:59 on December 18). Over 900 guesses have been received so far and the accumulated Popcoins reaches 78,000. The latest situation is Park Geun-hye and Moon Jae-in leading the other 5 candidates by a large margin, with a respective of 46% and 41% of vote share.

(2) “Friends of POP” Recruitment Ongoing

POP is recruiting a team of “Friends of POP” to demonstrate civil power. “Friends of POP” will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 citizens), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end on December 31, 2012. Interested citizens are welcome to register at “PopCon” e-platform.

Since the figures released by POP at the “HKU POP SITE” (http://hkupop.pori.hk) today come from the last tracking survey on this topic conducted by POP in 2012, the half-yearly averages published in the website are good for year-end stories. Because the handover of Hong Kong occurred on July 1, it may be more appropriate and accurate to analyze macro changes of Hong Kong society using half-yearly rather than yearly figures. Moreover, a chronology of major events as reported by the local newspapers over many years past can be found in the “Opinion Daily” at the “POP Site”. This may also be useful in running year-end reviews.

POP conducted a double stage survey on people’s satisfaction with the top 5 disciplinary forces in late November to early December 2012 by means of random telephone surveys conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that in terms of relative rankings according to net satisfaction rates, among the ‘top 5’ Hong Kong disciplinary forces, Hong Kong Fire Services Department stays on top, Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department, Hong Kong Immigration Department and Hong Kong Police Force each goes up one position to rank second to fourth, Civil Aid Service enters the list and ranks fifth, while Government Flying Services which ranked second last time has dropped out of the list because it failed to reach the recognition threshold. In terms of absolute satisfaction ratings, all ‘top 5’ disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, while Hong Kong Fire Services Department gets a very high score of 79.8 marks, with 90% satisfied with its performance, and close to zero dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of positive 89 percentage points. It is definitely the most popular disciplinary force in Hong Kong. On the other hand, compared to six months ago, people’s satisfaction rate with Hong Kong Police Force has significantly rebounded, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison remains stable. Net satisfaction rates of the two forces now stand at positive 57 and positive 40 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes disciplinary forces best known to the public, ranked according to their satisfaction ratings. Some of other disciplinary forces may well have very high or low satisfaction ratings, but because they are not the most well-known forces, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points, while that of rating figures is below +/-2.3 marks at 95% confidence level, and the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the satisfaction survey is 67%.

Since its establishment in 1991, POP has been conducting different types of opinion studies on social and political issues. Shortly after the handover of Hong Kong in July 1997, POP began our regular surveys on people's satisfaction with the performance of the Hong Kong Police Force and PLA Hong Kong Garrison. At the beginning, the surveys were conducted once every month. Then in September 2000 the frequency was changed to once every two months. Since October 2003, the surveys have been conducted once every three months to cope with the changing social conditions until December 2011. In 2012, as Hong Kong marks its 15th anniversary of the handover, POP again revised the design of this survey series, by splitting the survey into two stages. A naming survey of people’s most familiar disciplinary forces in Hong Kong would be conducted first, then a survey on people’s satisfaction with their top 6 most familiar disciplinary forces as well as the PLA Hong Kong Garrison would be conducted according to the results of the naming survey. All findings of these surveys are published regularly at the HKU POP Site.

The survey results released by POP today via the "POP SITE" have been, as a general practice, weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

The research design of our “Top 5 Hong Kong disciplinary forces” satisfaction survey is similar to that of various “Top 10” series conducted by POP, it is explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our web page. The Hong Kong disciplinary forces listed in our latest survey are those which obtained highest unprompted mentions in our first stage naming survey conducted in late November. In that survey, respondents could name, unaided, up to 5 Hong Kong disciplinary forces which they knew best, with the following results:

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicates rankings in our naming survey. Disciplinary Forces with the same recognition rate will be ranked according to the decimal place of the corresponding percentages. The error margin of previous surveys can also be found at the POP Site.

[8] The sub-sample size in the survey conducted in June 2012 was 645, while that in November 2012 was 684.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The naming survey conducted in late November showed that Hong Kong Police Force was named most frequently with a recognition rate of 86%. Hong Kong Fire Services Department, Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department, Hong Kong Immigration Department, Hong Kong Correctional Services and Civil Aid Service with recognition rate of 75%, 53%, 43%, 34% and 15%, ranked the 2nd to 6th. However, 12% could not name any disciplinary forces.

The 6 disciplinary forces which were named most frequently then entered into the second stage satisfaction survey. At the second stage satisfaction survey conducted in early December, respondents were asked to rate each of the 6 short-listed disciplinary forces in turn using a 0-100 scale, with 0 meaning very dissatisfied, 100 meaning very satisfied, and 50 meaning half-half. After calculation, the bottom disciplinary force in terms of recognition rate was dropped; the remaining 5 were then ranked according to their net satisfaction rates, then by satisfaction rates if they are the same, giving the following results for “top 5 disciplinary forces”:

[10] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level”, meaning that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “ sampling error of ratings not more than +/-1.6 marks, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. Numbers in square brackets { } indicate the rankings.
[11] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[12] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The satisfaction survey conducted in early December showed that Hong Kong Fire Services Department ranked first, attaining 79.8 marks, 90% of the citizens interviewed were satisfied with its performance, 1% were not satisfied, with a net satisfaction rate of positive 89 percentage points and a mean value of 4.3 marks, which is between “quite satisfied” and “very satisfied”. Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department ranked the second with 72.3 marks, 77% were satisfied with its performance. Its net satisfaction rate stands at positive 73 percentage points, with a mean value of 3.9 marks, meaning close to “quite satisfied”. The 3rd to 5th ranks went to Hong Kong Immigration Department, Hong Kong Police Force and Civil Aid Service, with satisfaction ratings at 71.9, 67.0 and 71.2 marks respectively. Their corresponding satisfaction rates obtained were 75%, 66% and 58%, and their net satisfaction stand at positive 71, 57 and 57 percentage points in respective order, while their respective mean values registered were 3.9, 3.7 and 3.9 marks, meaning between “half-half” and “quite satisfied” in general. In this survey, Hong Kong Correctional Services obtained a rating of 67.7 marks, 52% citizens interviewed were satisfied with its performance, but it was dropped due to its relatively low recognition rate.

Before 2012, this survey series registered peoples’ satisfaction level of the “Hong Kong Police” together with that of the PLA Hong Kong Garrison. The former is now renamed in the survey as “Hong Kong Police Force” while the latter remains unchanged. Here are the results of the last surveys:

[13] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “ sampling error of ratings not more than +/-2.3 marks, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-5% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site. 
[14] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean.
[15] The wordings used in surveys before 2012 were “Are you satisfied with the performance of the Hong Kong Police?”
[16] Assuming that the change in questionnaire wording from “HKP” to “HKPF” has no significant effect, such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.
[17] Starting from 2011, these questions only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned, the sample size for each question also varies.

Results of survey conducted in early December show that the satisfaction rating of PLA is 66.0 marks, 46% are satisfied with the performance of the PLA stationed in Hong Kong, only 6% are dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of positive 40 percentage points, and a mean scores of 3.8, meaning “quite satisfied” in general.

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of Public Opinion Programme, observed, “In terms of relative rankings according to net satisfaction rates, among the ‘top 5’ Hong Kong disciplinary forces, Hong Kong Fire Services Department stays on top, Hong Kong Customs and Excise Department, Hong Kong Immigration Department and Hong Kong Police Force each goes up one position to rank second to fourth, Civil Aid Service enters the list and ranks fifth, while Government Flying Services which ranked second last time has dropped out of the list because it failed to reach the recognition threshold. In terms of absolute satisfaction ratings, all ‘top 5’ disciplinary forces get more than 60 marks, while Hong Kong Fire Services Department gets a very high score of 79.8 marks, with 90% satisfied with its performance, and close to zero dissatisfied, giving a net satisfaction of positive 89 percentage points. It is definitely the most popular disciplinary force in Hong Kong. On the other hand, compared to six months ago, people’s satisfaction rate with Hong Kong Police Force has significantly rebounded, while their satisfaction with the PLA Hong Kong Garrison remains stable. Net satisfaction rates of the two forces now stand at positive 57 and positive 40 percentage points respectively. It should be noted that our list of ‘top 5’ only includes disciplinary forces best known to the public, ranked according to their satisfaction ratings. Some of other disciplinary forces may well have very high or low satisfaction ratings, but because they are not the most well-known forces, they do not appear on the list by design. As for the reasons affecting the differences as well as the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using the detailed records displayed in the ‘Opinion Daily’ of our POP Site.”

• December 20, 2012 (Thursday) 1pm to 2pm: Latest trust and confidence indicators