HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on November 27, 2012

Special Announcement

“Friends of POP” wanted

The Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong is recruiting a team of “Friends of POP” to demonstrate civil power. “Friends of POP” will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 citizens), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end on December 31, 2012. Interested citizens are welcome to register at “PopCon” e-platform.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,020 Hong Kong people between 14 and 22 November 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since our last survey. His support rating now stands at 52.3 marks and net popularity at negative 6 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate remains unchanged, but dissatisfaction rate goes down significantly by 5 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 16 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 64%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,020 successful interviews, not 1,020 x 64.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
14-22/11/2012	1,020	64.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	3-7/9	18-27/9	4-10/10	17-23/10	1-8/11	14-22/11	Latest change
Sample base	1,005	1,037	1,006	1,021	1,028	1,020	--
Overall response rate	64.6%	67.8%	65.8%	68.2%	65.1%	64.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	46.5^[9]	46.0	49.2^[9]	49.1	53.0^[9]	52.3+/-1.5	-0.7
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	33%	33%	39%^[9]	37%	42%^[9]	39+/-3%	-3%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	50%	50%	45%^[9]	47%	43%^[9]	45+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-17%	-17%	-6%^[9]	-10%	-1%^[9]	-6+/-6%	-5%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	26%^[9]	--	25%	--	25+/-4%	--
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	49%	--	46%	--	41+/-4%	-5%^[9]
Net satisfaction rate	--	-23%	--	-21%	--	-16+/-6%	+5%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=625)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=599)	--	2.8+/-0.1 (Base=599)	+0.2^[9]

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4%, sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 606.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 52.3 marks, and 39% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 6 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 41% were dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction rate is negative 16 percentage points. The mean score is 2.8, meaning close to “half-half”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 14-22/11/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	25+/-6% (48)	36+/-5% (139)	48+/-5% (206)	39+/-3% (393)
	Oppose	65+/-7% (123)	48+/-5% (185)	35+/-5% (151)	46+/-3% (458)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	10+/-4% (19)	17+/-4% (65)	16+/-4% (70)	15+/-2% (155)
	Total	100% (190)	100% (388)	100% (427)	100% (1,005)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 14-22/11/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfied	10+/-5% (12)	23+/-6% (51)	34+/-6% (88)	25+/-4% (151)
	Half-half	31+/-8% (38)	34+/-6% (75)	32+/-6% (83)	33+/-4% (196)
	Dissatisfied	59+/-9% (72)	43+/-7% (95)	31+/-6% (80)	41+/-4% (247)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	<1+/-1% (1)	1+/-1% (1)	2+/-2% (5)	1+/-1% (7)
	Total	100% (122)	100% (222)	100% (256)	100% (601)
	Mean value	2.3+/-0.2 (122)	2.7+/-0.1 (221)	3.0+/-0.1 (251)	2.7+/-0.1 (594)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 17 to 23 October, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 14 to 22 November, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

19/11/12	Fatal bus crash in Chai Wan with 3 deaths and 56 people injured.
16/11/12	Gross Domestic Product increases by 1.3% in the third quarter.
3/11/12	Executive Councillor Franklin Lam Fan-keung takes leave of absence.
31/10/12	Vote of approval for Old Age Living Allowance Funding application was delayed.
26/10/12	Financial Secretary John Tsang Chun-wah says he will take extraordinary measures under exceptional circumstances on property market.
17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates on his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, “Our survey conducted before CE CY Leung officially explained the illegal structure of his house shows that his popularity has not changed much since our last survey. His support rating now stands at 52.3 marks and net popularity at negative 6 percentage points. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has slightly improved. Satisfaction rate remains unchanged, but dissatisfaction rate goes down significantly by 5 percentage points, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 16 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that those aged between 18 and 29 are most critical to CY Leung as CE, and most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. Regarding the questionnaire design of CE’s popularity, I have already written two articles back in June 2003, entitled ‘New Perspectives on Chief Executive Ratings’ and ‘Accountability of Principal Officials to Public Opinion’. Both of them can be downloaded from our ‘PopSite’ so I will skip discussing them here.”

Future Release (Tentative)

December 4, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: People's most familiar political figures