HKU POP releases findings on people’s feeling towards different governments and peoplesBack

Press Release onNovember 22, 2012

Special Announcements

PopCon users accurately predict Barack Obama re-elected as US President

The final guesstimates for the “US Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game” put Barack Obama in the lead over Mitt Romney with 290 versus 248 electoral votes. This guessing game was launched by the “PopCon” e-platform hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong. Over 300 guesstimate submissions have been received, and the accumulated bonus Popcoins now stands at 39,615. The winners will be announced in due course. To echo with the South Korea Presidential Election due to take place next month, the "PopCon" e-platform will launch another guessing game on this election soon. Besides, POP is recruiting a team called “Friends of POP” to demonstrate civil power. “Friends of POP” will be invited to participate in supporting various research activities organized by POP, including civil referendums (PopVote 3.23 mobilized about 300 citizens), election exit polls (LC election studies mobilized about 250), rally head-counting (July 1st rally mobilized about 50), as well as facilitating online research. The first round of recruitment will end on December 31, 2012. Interested citizens are welcome to register at “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk).

Abstract

POP conducted a double stage survey on Hong Kong citizens’ feeling towards different governments and peoples in November, by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers. The survey shows that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China and Macau. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net value of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 32 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR Government, that towards Taiwan people is 26 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 3 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government. However, that towards the Mainland Chinese people is 3 percentage points lower than that towards the Mainland Chinese government. As for countries and regions outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan and the United States whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except with the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments. It should be noted that compared to half a year ago, Hong Kong people’s positive feelings towards the people and government of Japan have significantly dropped by 15 and 10 percentage points respectively, while their negative feeling towards the Japan government is as high as 45 percentge points net, obviously due to the Diaoyu Island Incident. Moreover, people’s negative feeling towards the Filippino government has also reached 74 percentge points net, which warrants attention. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design. The maximum sampling error of all percentages is between +/-1 and +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level while the sampling error of net values need another calculation. The response rate of the second stage opinion survey is 66%.

Points to note:

[1] The address of the “HKU POP SITE” is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of the first stage naming survey is 1,005 successful interviews, not 1,005 x 65.9% response rate, while the sample size of the second stage rating survey is 1,024 successful interviews, not 1,024 x 65.9% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state “sampling error of various percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level”.
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses “computerized random telephone survey” to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the survey findings on Hong Kong people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples. These surveys on governments are conducted at least once a year since 1997, while the surveys on peoples only began in 2007, this being the eleventh time. As a general practice, all figures released today have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in mid-year 2012. Herewith the contact information for the latest survey:

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Sampling error of percentages ^[6]
3-6/11/2012 (First stage naming survey)	1,005	65.9%	+/-3%
16-20/11/2012 (Second stage opinion survey)	1,024	65.9%	+/-3%

[6] Calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sample error. For this survey, the sub-sample size of all questions has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have been reported in the statistical tables.

The research design of our survey on “people’s feeling towards different governments and peoples” has been explained in detail under “Survey Method” in our corresponding web page. For many years, POP have selected 15 regions and countries that are best known to Hong Kong people, and conducted surveys to measure people’s feeling towards the governments of these places. Our primary objective was to map Hong Kong people’s cosmopolitan view over time. In 2007, we improved our research design. Our mid-2007 survey was divided into two stages, namely, a naming survey and an opinion survey. In the 2007 year-end survey, we further added the people module to the survey. In specific terms, in our naming survey, other than Hong Kong, Mainland China, Taiwan and Macau, respondents can name, unaided, up to ten regions or countries which they know best. The four cross-strait regions together with 12 other regions and countries most frequently mentioned in the naming stage were then shortlisted into the second stage, with their governments and peoples rated by respondents as “very positive”, “quite positive”, “half-half”, “quite negative” or “very negative”. In our first stage survey conducted on November 3 to 6, the United States, the United Kingdom, Japan, France and Australia were mentioned most frequently. Please refer to the relevant table in our website for the rest of the list. Our second stage survey was conducted on November 16 to 20. The following table summarizes the findings of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards the governments and peoples of the four cross-strait regions.

Date of survey		12-16/5/11	23/11-1/12/11	23-30/5/12	16-20/11/12
Sample base		1,000	1,055	1,052	1,024
Overall response rate		65.5%	69.6%	67.3%	65.9%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[8]		Finding	Finding	Finding	Base^[9]	Finding and error ^[7]	Latest change^[10]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Hong Kong	People Positive	39%^[11]	53%^[11]	51%	605	44+/-4%	-7%^[11]	+32%
	People Negative	9%	8%	8%	605	8+/-2%	--
	Net value	30%	45%	43%	--	36+/-5%	-7%^[11]
	Government Positive	20%^[11]	40%^[11]	23%^[11]	605	27+/-4%	+4%	-32%
	Government Negative	27%^[11]	25%	36%^[11]	605	23+/-3%	-13%^[11]
	Net value	-7%	15%	-13%	--	4+/-6%	+17%^[11]
Mainland	People Positive	23%^[11]	23%	28%^[11]	651	27+/-3%	-1%	-3%
	People Negative	28%^[11]	33%^[11]	29%	651	26+/-3%	-3%
	Net value	-5%	-10%	-1%	--	1+/-6%	+2%
	Government Positive	22%^[11]	33%^[11]	28%^[11]	651	29+/-4%	+1%	+3%
	Government Negative	25%	28%	32%	651	25+/-3%	-7%^[11]
	Net value	-3%	5%	-4%	--	4+/-6%	+8%^[11]
Taiwan	People Positive	48%^[11]	49%	57%^[11]	677	51+/-4%	-6%^[11]	+26%
	People Negative	5%	5%	5%	677	2+/-1%	-3%^[11]
	Net value	43%	44%	52%	--	49+/-4%	-3%
	Government Positive	21%	28%^[11]	38%^[11]	677	31+/-4%	-7%^[11]	-26%
	Government Negative	15%^[11]	19%^[11]	11%^[11]	677	8+/-2%	-3%^[11]
	Net value	6%	9%	27%	--	23+/-4%	-4%
Macau	People Positive	39%^[11]	44%^[11]	52%^[11]	690	48+/-4%	-4%	+3%
	People Negative	2%	3%	2%	690	1+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	37%	41%	50%	--	47+/-4%	-3%
	Government Positive	39%	45%^[11]	51%^[11]	690	51+/-4%	--	-3%
	Government Negative	8%	9%	10%	690	7+/-2%	-3%^[11]
	Net value	31%	36%	41%	--	44+/-5%	+3%

[7]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8]Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[9]The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[10]Comparison made with survey findings of 23-30/5/12.
[11]Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Herewith the findings of Hong Kong people’s feelings towards the governments and peoples of 12 regions and countries other than the four cross-strait regions. They are ranked according to the net values of Hong Kong people's feelings towards their people, in descending order. If the values are the same, then they are sorted by the respective percentages of positive feelings.

Date of survey		12-16/5/11	23/11-1/12/11	23-30/5/12	16-20/11/12
Sample base		1,000	1,055	1,052	1,024
Overall response rate		65.5%	69.6%	67.3%	65.9%
Feeling towards different governments / peoples ^[13]		*Finding*	*Finding*	*Finding*	Base^[14]	Finding and error^[12]	Latest change^[15]	Net difference with gov’ts / peoples
Singapore	People Positive	58%	56%	61%^[16]	699	58+/-4%	-3%	+5%
	People Negative	3%	3%	4%	699	1+/-1%	-3%^[16]
	Net value	55%	53%	57%	--	57+/-4%	--
	Government Positive	57%	55%	59%	699	58+/-4%	-1%	-5%
	Government Negative	6%	9%^[16]	7%	699	6+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	51%	46%	52%	--	52+/-5%	--
Canada	People Positive	44%^[16]	45%	52%^[16]	687	49+/-4%	-3%	--
	People Negative	<1%	2%	2%	687	1+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	43%	43%	50%	--	48+/-4%	-2%
	Government Positive	42%	44%	48%	687	49+/-4%	+1%	--
	Government Negative	1%	2%	3%	687	1+/-1%	-2%^[16]
	Net value	41%	42%	45%	--	48+/-4%	+3%
Australia	People Positive	46%	43%	50%^[16]	682	47+/-4%	-3%	+6%
	People Negative	2%	3%	2%	682	2+/-1%	--
	Net value	44%	40%	48%	--	45+/-4%	-3%
	Government Positive	39%	36%	42%^[16]	682	41+/-4%	-1%	-6%
	Government Negative	2%	5%^[16]	4%	682	2+/-1%	-2%^[16]
	Net value	37%	31%	38%	--	39+/-4%	+1%
United Kingdom	People Positive	40%	45%^[16]	45%	655	41+/-4%	-4%	+4%
	People Negative	4%	6%	5%	655	4+/-1%	-1%
	Net value	36%	39%	40%	--	37+/-4%	-3%
	Government Positive	35%	37%	44%^[16]	655	39+/-4%	-5%^[16]	-4%
	Government Negative	10%	12%	9%	655	6+/-2%	-3%^[16]
	Net value	25%	25%	35%	--	33+/-5%	-2%
South Korea	People Positive	35%^[16]	42%^[16]	49%^[16]	697	39+/-4%	-10%^[16]	+10%
	People Negative	5%	7%	7%	697	7+/-2%	--
	Net value	30%	35%	42%	--	32+/-5%	-10%^[16]
	Government Positive	25%^[16]	31%^[16]	35%	697	32+/-4%	-3%	-10%
	Government Negative	10%	11%	14%	697	10+/-2%	-4%^[16]
	Net value	15%	20%	21%	--	22+/-5%	+1%
Thailand	People Positive	27%^[16]	37%^[16]	41%	644	39+/-4%	-2%	+27%
	People Negative	14%	9%^[16]	11%	644	8+/-2%	-3%^[16]
	Net value	13%	28%	30%	--	31+/-5%	+1%
	Government Positive	12%	17%^[16]	24%^[16]	644	23+/-3%	-1%	-27%
	Government Negative	33%^[16]	29%	30%	644	19+/-3%	-11%^[16]
	Net value	-21%	-12%	-6%	--	4+/-5%	+10%^[16]
Germany	People Positive	32%	34%	39%^[16]	678	33+/-4%	-6%^[16]	+3%
	People Negative	2%	4%	4%	678	2+/-1%	-2%^[16]
	Net value	30%	30%	35%	--	31+/-4%	-4%
	Government Positive	26%	30%	36%^[16]	678	31+/-4%	-5%^[16]	-3%
	Government Negative	3%	6%^[16]	8%	678	3+/-1%	-5%^[16]
	Net value	23%	24%	28%	--	28+/-4%	--
Japan	People Positive	60%^[16]	55%^[16]	57%	695	42+/-4%	-15%^[16]	+74%
	People Negative	6%^[16]	8%	8%	695	13+/-3%	+5%^[16]
	Net value	54%	47%	49%	--	29+/-5%	-20%^[16]
	Government Positive	26%^[16]	27%	21%^[16]	695	11+/-2%	-10%^[16]	-74%
	Government Negative	27%^[16]	33%^[16]	41%^[16]	695	56+/-4%	+15%^[16]
	Net value	-1%	-6%	-20%	--	-45+/-5%	-25%^[16]
USA	People Positive	35%	35%	38%	644	35+/-4%	-3%	+33%
	People Negative	7%^[16]	12%^[16]	12%	644	11+/-2%	-1%
	Net value	28%	23%	26%	--	24+/-5%	-2%
	Government Positive	16%	17%	20%	644	23+/-3%	+3%	-33%
	Government Negative	35%	40%^[16]	37%	644	32+/-4%	-5%^[16]
	Net value	-19%	-23%	-17%	--	-9+/-6%	+8%^[16]
France	People Positive	25%	27%	32%^[16]	686	26+/-3%	-6%^[16]	+12%
	People Negative	6%	7%	10%	686	6+/-2%	-4%^[16]
	Net value	19%	20%	22%	--	20+/-4%	-2%
	Government Positive	13%	14%	18%^[16]	686	16+/-3%	-2%	-12%
	Government Negative	12%	16%^[16]	19%	686	8+/-2%	-11%^[16]
	Net value	1%	-2%	-1%	--	8+/-4%	+9%^[16]
Italy	People Positive	20%^[16]	22%	24%	680	22+/-3%	-2%	+15%
	People Negative	6%^[16]	9%^[16]	8%	680	6+/-2%	-2%
	Net value	14%	13%	16%	--	16+/-4%	--
	Government Positive	11%^[16]	11%	17%^[16]	680	14+/-3%	-3%	-15%
	Government Negative	13%^[16]	18%^[16]	14%^[16]	680	13+/-3%	-1%
	Net value	-2%	-7%	3%	--	1+/-4%	-2%
The Philippines	People Positive	--	17%	17%	654	15+/-3%	-2%	+60%
	People Negative	--	36%	38%	654	29+/-4%	-9%^[16]
	Net value	--	-19%	-21%	--	-14+/-5%	+7%^[16]
	Government Positive	--	3%	3%	654	2+/-1%	-1%	-60%
	Government Negative	--	79%	83%^[16]	654	76+/-3%	-7%^[16]
	Net value	--	-76%	-80%	--	-74+/-4%	+6%^[16]

[12]All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state "sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% and sampling error of net values not more than +/-6% at 95% confidence level" when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[13]Collapsed from a 5-point scale.
[14]The sample size for each question varies, but has been controlled to no less than 500. Corresponding sampling errors have all been given.
[15]Comparison made with survey findings of 23-30/5/12.
[16]Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

Our latest findings showed that, as regards the results of people’s feeling towards different peoples, 44% felt positive towards Hong Kong people themselves while the net value is positive 36 percentage points. For the other cross-strait regions, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau peoples were 27%, 51% and 48% while their net values are positive 1, 49 and 47 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on peoples of other regions and countries, the net values for Singapore, Canada, Australia, the United Kingdom, South Korea, Thailand and Germany were highest, with positive 57, 48, 45, 37, 32, 31 and 31 percentage points respectively, while those for the Japan, the United States, France and Italy were positive 29, 24, 20 and 16 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the people of the Philippines is negative 14 percentage points only.

Regarding the results of people’s feeling towards different governments, 27% felt positive towards the HKSAR government while the net value is positive 4 percentage points. For the other cross-strait governments, the corresponding positive figures for the Mainland, Taiwan and Macau governments were 29%, 31% and 51% while their net values are positive 4, 23 and 44 percentage points respectively. As for the feelings on other governments, the net values for Singapore and Canada were the highest, with positive 52 and 48 percentage points correspondingly, while those for Australia, the United Kingdom, Germany, South Korea, France, Thailand and Italy were positive 39, 33, 28, 22, 8, 4 and 1 percentage points correspondingly, those for the United States and Japan were negative 9 and 45 percentage points correspondingly. Lastly, the net value of feeling towards the Filippino government is negative 74 percentage points.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey was conducted from May 23 to 30, 2012 while this survey was conducted from November 16 to 20, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

15/11/12	The Communist Party of China has handed over helmsmanship to the new CPC General Secretary Xi Jinping and his colleagues.
7/11/12	Barack Obama is re-elected to U.S. President.
11/10/12	Mo Yan becomes the first Chinese author to win the Nobel Prize for literature.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.
4/10/12	Hong Kong goes into three days of mourning today for the 38 people killed in the ferry disaster.
28/9/12	Bo Xilai has been expelled from the Communist Party.
15/9/12	Demonstrations are held in more than 20 cities across China against Japan's claims over the Diaoyu Islands.
11/9/12	Japan formally signs a deal to buy three of the five uninhabited Diaoyu Islands from their private Japanese owner for 2.05 billion yen.
25/8/12	China's gold medallists perform in the Mainland Olympic Gold Medallists Extravaganza.
15/8/12	Hong Kong activists smash their way through Japanese vessels to wave Chinese flags on the Diaoyus.
10/8/12	Tiangong-1/Shenzhou-9 astronauts visit Hong Kong four days.
27/7/12	London Olympic Games opening ceremony.
16/6/12	China's first female astronaut rides in Shenzhou IX.

Commentary

Note: The following commentary was written by Director of POP Robert Chung.

Our latest survey shows that Hong Kong people feel much more positively about other peoples than their governments, with the exception of Mainland China and Macau. Regarding the four cross-strait societies, the net value of Hong Kong people’s feeling towards fellow Hong Kong people is 32 percentage points higher than that towards the Hong Kong SAR Government, that towards Taiwan people is 26 percentage points higher than that of the Taiwan government, that towards Macau people is 3 percentage points higher than that towards the Macau government. However, that towards the Mainland Chinese people is 3 percentage points lower than that towards the Mainland Chinese government.

As for countries and regions outside the cross-strait regions, Hong Kong people seem to dislike the governments of the Philippines, Japan and the United States whereas they seem to like all peoples rather than dislike them, except with the people of the Philippines. These findings are worth studying by various governments.

It should be noted that compared to half a year ago, Hong Kong people’s positive feelings towards the people and government of Japan have significantly dropped by 15 and 10 percentage points respectively, while their negative feeling towards the Japan government is as high as 45 percentge points net, obviously due to the Diaoyu Island Incident. Moreover, people’s negative feeling towards the Filippino government has also reached 74 percentge points net, which warrants attention. As for other reasons affecting the ups and downs of various figures, readers can make their own judgment using detailed records shown in our ‘Opinion Daily’ feature page. It should be noted, however, that our survey only covers regions and countries best known to Hong Kong people. Hong Kong people may well like or dislike other places much more, but because they are not the most well-known places, they do not appear on the list by design.

Future Release (Tentative)

November 27, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of CE and SAR Government