HKU POP releases popularity figures of CE and the GovernmentBack

Press Release on October 30, 2012

Special Announcement

The “PopCon” e-platform (http://popcon.hk) hosted by the Public Opinion Programme (POP) at the University of Hong Kong launched a new game called “US Presidential Election 2012 Guessing Game” last week. Users can now make guesses on the result of the US Presidential Election due to take place on November 6 this year, in order to earn credits and win prizes. Guessing figures will be released real time until the last minute of the game (i.e. 23:59 on November 5). As of October 30, 12 pm, users’ final guesses stand at Barack Obama 304 electoral votes and Mitt Romney 234 electoral votes.

Abstract

POP interviewed 1,021 Hong Kong people between 17 and 23 October 2012 by means of a random telephone survey conducted by real interviewers. Our latest survey shows that the popularity of CE CY Leung has not changed much since the last survey. With a support rating at 49.1 marks and a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points, his overall popularity goes back to the level registered in mid-August. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has not changed much either. Satisfaction rate goes down by 1 percentage point to 25%, but dissatisfaction rate also goes down by 3 percentage points to 46%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the more one disapproves of CY Leung as CE, while those aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. The maximum sampling error of all percentage figures is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figures and net values need another calculation. The response rate of the survey is 68%.

Points to note:
[1] The address of the "HKU POP SITE" is http://hkupop.pori.hk, journalists can check out the details of the survey there.
[2] The sample size of this survey is 1,021 successful interviews, not 1,021 x 68.2% response rate. In the past, many media made this mistake.
[3] The maximum sampling error of percentages is +/-4 percentage points at 95% confidence level, while the sampling error of rating figure needs another calculation. "95% confidence level" means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. When quoting these figures, journalists can state "sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5 and sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%".
[4] When quoting percentages of this survey, journalists should refrain from reporting decimal places, but when quoting the rating figures, one decimal place can be used, in order to match the precision level of the figures.
[5] The data of this survey is collected by means of random telephone interviews conducted by real interviewers, not by any interactive voice system (IVS). If a research organization uses "computerized random telephone survey" to camouflage its IVS operation, it should be considered unprofessional.

Latest Figures

POP today releases on schedule via the "POP SITE" the latest popularity figures of CE CY Leung and the HKSAR Government. As a general practice, all figures have been weighted according to provisional figures obtained from the Census and Statistics Department regarding the gender-age distribution of the Hong Kong population in 2012 mid-year.

Date of survey	Overall sample size	Response rate	Maximum sampling error of percentages^[6]
17-23/10/2012	1,021	68.2%	+/-3%

[6] Errors are calculated at 95% confidence level using full sample size. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Questions using only sub-samples would have bigger sampling error. Sampling errors of ratings are calculated according to the distribution of the scores collected.

Recent popularity figures of CE CY Leung and people's satisfaction of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government are summarized as follows:

Date of survey	2-8/8/12	14-18/8/12	3-7/9/12	18-27/9/12	4-10/10/12	17-23/10/12	Latest change
Sample base	1,002	1,019	1,005	1,037	1,006	1,021	--
Overall response rate	65.9%	66.6%	64.6%	67.8%	65.8%	68.2%	--
Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding	Finding and error^[7]	--
Rating of CE CY Leung	51.6	49.0^[9]	46.5^[9]	46.0	49.2^[9]	49.1+/-1.5	-0.1
Vote of confidence in CE CY Leung	39%	36%	33%	33%	39%^[9]	37+/-3%	-2%
Vote of no confidence in CE CY Leung	47%	48%	50%	50%	45%^[9]	47+/-3%	+2%
Net approval rate	-8%	-12%	-17%	-17%	-6%^[9]	-10+/-6%	-4%
Satisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	22%	--	26%^[9]	--	25+/-3%	-1%
Dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[8]	--	46%	--	49%	--	46+/-4%	-3%
Net satisfaction rate	--	-24%	--	-23%	--	-21+/-7%	+2%
Mean value^[8]	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=537)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=625)	--	2.6+/-0.1 (Base=599)	--

[7] All error figures in the table are calculated at 95% confidence level. “95% confidence level” means that if we were to repeat a certain survey 100 times, using the same questions each time but with different random samples, we would expect 95 times getting a figure within the error margins specified. Media can state “sampling error of rating not more than +/-1.5, sampling error of percentages not more than +/-4% at 95% confidence level, sampling error of net values not more than +/-7%” when quoting the above figures. The error margin of previous survey can be found at the POP Site.
[8] Collapsed from a 5-point scale. The mean value is calculated by quantifying all individual responses into 1, 2, 3, 4, 5 marks according to their degree of positive level, where 1 is the lowest and 5 the highest, and then calculate the sample mean. Starting from March 2011, this question only uses sub-samples of the tracking surveys concerned. The sample size for this series is 612.
[9] Such changes have gone beyond the sampling errors at the 95% confidence level, meaning that they are statistically significant prima facie. However, whether numerical differences are statistically significant or not is not the same as whether they are practically useful or meaningful.

The latest survey showed that, CE Leung Chun-ying scored 49.1 marks, and 37% supported him as CE, his net approval rate is negative 10 percentage points. Regarding people's appraisal of the overall performance of the HKSAR Government, the latest figures revealed that 25% were satisfied, whereas 46% were dissatisfied, thus the net satisfaction rate is negative 21 percentage points. The mean score is 2.6, meaning in between “half-half” and “quite dissatisfied”.

Indepth Analysis

In the survey, we also asked respondents for their age. If they were reluctant to give their exact age, they could give us a range. Herewith further analysis of the support rate of Leung Chun-ying as Chief Executive and the satisfaction rate of SARG performance by respondents' age:

Date of survey: 17-23/10/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Support / Oppose Leung Chun-ying as CE^[10]	Support	25+/-6% (48)	35+/-5% (139)	44+/-5% (189)	37+/-3% (376)
	Oppose	58+/-7% (111)	51+/-5% (201)	37+/-5% (162)	47+/-3% (474)
	Don’t know/ Hard to say	17+/-5% (32)	14+/-3% (53)	19+/-4% (83)	17+/-2% (168)
	Total	100% (191)	100% (393)	100% (434)	100% (1,018)

[10] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Date of survey: 17-23/10/2012		18-29	30-49	50 or above	Overall sample
Satisfaction / dissatisfaction rate of SARG performance^[11]	Satisfaction	12+/-6% (15)	23+/-6% (53)	32+/-6% (83)	25+/-3% (151)
	Half-half	38+/-9% (47)	23+/-6% (54)	26+/-5% (68)	28+/-4% (169)
	Dissatisfied	49+/-9% (61)	52+/-7% (119)	38+/-6% (99)	46+/-4% (279)
	Don’t know / Hard to say	1+/-1% (2)	2+/-2% (4)	3+/-2% (8)	2+/-1% (14)
	Total	100% (125)	100% (230)	100% (258)	100% (612)

[11] Differences among sub-groups are tested to be statistically significant at 95% confidence level.

Opinion Daily

In January 2007, POP opened a feature page called "Opinion Daily" at the "POP Site", to record significant events and selected polling figures on a day-to-day basis, in order to let readers judge by themselves the reasons for the ups and downs of different opinion figures. In July 2007, POP collaborated with Wisers Information Limited whereby Wisers supplies to POP each day starting from July 24, a record of significant events of that day, according to the research method designed by POP. These daily entries would be uploaded to "Opinion Daily" as soon as they are verified by POP.

For the polling items covered in this press release, the previous survey of some items was conducted from 18 to 27 September, 2012 while this survey was conducted from 17 to 23 October, 2012. During this period, herewith the significant events selected from counting newspaper headlines and commentaries on a daily basis and covered by at least 25% of the local newspaper articles. Readers can make their own judgment if these significant events have any impacts to different polling figures.

17/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung elaborates his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council.
15/10/12	Consumer Council study shows nearly half of the Mandatory Provident Fund investments posted an average lost in each of last five years.
10/10/12	Woman died after showing signs of septicemia after receiving beauty centre treatment.
8/10/12	Chief Executive CY Leung announces Moral & National Education subject guidelines will be shelved.
4/10/12	Hong Kong goes into three days of mourning today for the 38 people killed in the ferry disaster.
1/10/12	Two ferries collide off Lamma Island.
25/9/12	Minimum Wage Commission proposes to increase minimum wage to $30 per hour.
22/9/12	6,000 people attend public forum over plans to develop northeastern New Territories.

Commentary

Robert Ting-Yiu Chung, Director of POP, observed, "Our survey conducted after CE CY Leung elaborated his governing philosophy to the Legislative Council shows that the popularity of Leung has not changed much since the last survey. With a support rating at 49.1 marks and a net popularity of negative 10 percentage points, his overall popularity goes back to the level registered in mid-August. For the SAR Government, compared to one month ago, its popularity has not changed much either. Satisfaction rate goes down by 1 percentage point to 25%, but dissatisfaction rate also goes down by 3 percentage points to 46%, giving a net satisfaction rate of negative 21 percentage points. Indepth analysis shows that the younger the respondent, the more one disapproves of CY Leung as CE, while those aged between 30 and 49 are most dissatisfied with the performance of the SAR Government. As for the reasons affecting the ups and downs of these figures, we leave it to our readers to form their own judgment using detailed records displayed in our ‘Opinion Daily’."

Future Release (Tentative)

November 6, 2012 (Tuesday) 1pm to 2pm: Popularity of Top Ten Legislative Councillors